7 NBA Bets to Watch Tonight, Early Week 10 NFL Action + Best CFB Coaching Openings

We also look at the NFL betting markets with the regular season halfway done.

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Betting markets halfway through the NFL season

2. Bets to Watch: Embiid is heating up after slow opening game

3. Top 10: Florida is the best coaching vacancy in college football

4. By the Numbers: 12 NFL Week 10 matchups where bettors are starting off strongly on one side

5. Overtime: Could Ja Morant’s tenure in Memphis end in a trade?

1. Leading Off

The first half of the NFL season ended with the Cardinals and backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett upsetting the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday Night Football. Expectations weren’t sky high for Jerry Jones’s crew this season, but a 3-5-1 start, and +880 odds to make the playoffs, is even below what most Dallas pessimists predicted.

The league is always full of surprises, but the NFL seems even more competitive, and unpredictable, than usual. The Colts, Patriots and Broncos with the best record at 7-2? Not a chance. Eighteen teams at .500 or better? That’s parity. The Chiefs on the outside looking in of the playoffs after nine weeks but still the Super Bowl favorite? Weird. The Jets, Titans and Saints competing for the No. 1 NFL Draft pick? OK, anyone could see that coming.

As we head to Week 10, there are two teams that are heavily favored to win their divisions: the Eagles in the NFC East (-1500) and Buccaneers in the NFC South (-475). Sportsbooks give the Bills (-175) a leg up on the Patriots (+140) in the AFC East, the 3-5 Ravens (-145) the advantage over the 5-3 Steelers (+145) in the AFC North, the Colts (-250) with decent odds compared to the Jaguars (+260) in the AFC South, and the Chiefs (+125), Broncos (+130), and Chargers (+410) all in contention in the AFC West. In the two competitive NFC divisions, the Packers (+110) and Lions (+130) are likely going down to the wire in the North, while the Rams (+130), Seahawks (+160), and 49ers (+300) have shown little separation.

After his huge win over Kansas City on Sunday, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is the favorite (+150) to win his second-straight NFL’s MVP award. He’s followed by Patriots breakout quarterback Drake Maye (+400), Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+430), Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+500), and at +2000: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, Bucanneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, and — stop reading Vikings fans — Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

McCain Expected Back for 76ers, But Embiid is the Player to Watch

By Jack Dougherty

76ers C Joel Embiid over 19.5 points (-113 at DraftKings)
You gotta consider going back to the well if sportsbooks are going to price Embiid’s points prop like this. Embiid has cleared this line in…

3. Top 10

The Top Coaching Openings in College Football After a Slew of Quick In-Season Firings

A season after college football programs spent record sums bringing players to campus, schools are now spending tens of millions of dollars to get their coaches off the sidelines. According to Front Office Sports, public universities have committed over $1 billion in severance payments to fired coaches since 2014. A dozen coaches — including four from the SEC alone — have already been let go this season. Here are our Top 10 current openings in college football:

1. Florida: The Gators fired Billy Napier after a 3-4 start left him with a 22-23 record over four seasons. They have elite talent on the roster, sit in one of the best recruiting territories in America and have the eighth-biggest budget in college athletics. But Florida hasn’t won anything but an SEC East “championship” since Urban Meyer left 15 years ago. Athletic director Scott Stricklin gets a third chance to hire the right coach, which is rare, but the pressure is massive to restore Florida to national title contention.

2. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were four points away from a spot in the national championship last season but collapsed to 3-3 this year (0-3 in the Big Ten) before firing James Franklin. Franklin's 104-45 record over 12 seasons wasn't enough to overcome his 4-21 mark against top-10 teams. With strong recruiting, Big Ten money, and a clear playoff path, this job offers immediate success potential without the dysfunction plaguing other openings.

3. LSU: The Tigers have the talent, money and tradition to win. LSU spends nearly $193 million on sports — good for fifth in the country. This should be the top opening in college football. But this job is a complete mess. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry pressured athletic director Scott Woodward out five days after Brian Kelly's firing. LSU now needs a president, an AD, and a head coach all at once while the governor meddles in every decision.

4. Auburn: The (other) Tigers have the money and passionate fan base that should result in regularly competing for championships, not just bowl games. The job comes with huge expectations and resources to match, though recent coaching failures — three of Auburn’s past four left with a sub-.500 SEC record — show how hard it is to navigate the brutal SEC schedule.

5. UCLA: DeShaun Foster got a quick hook from the Bruins. The unexpected hire was fired after an 0-3 start to his second season, bringing his record to 5-10. UCLA offers a Big Ten platform, sits in one of the best recruiting markets in the country, and can promote living in Los Angeles as an advantage to players’ off-the-field marketing efforts. The upside of this job is enormous. The challenge is overcoming years of fan apathy to get more investment in the program — and competing with USC. The Bruins have only been to a bowl eight times in the past 15 years.

6. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys fired Mike Gundy after 21 years and a 170-90 record. Primarily because of him, they have a winning tradition, and Big 12 titles have been within reach. Getting rid of Gundy means rebuilding the foundation he built. The school needs to modernize its NIL and transfer portal approach, which Gundy held back, to keep pace with conference rivals. The donor money is there to do it.

7. Virginia Tech: Impatient Hokies fans might be wondering if they gave up on former coach Justin Fuente, who replaced legendary coach Frank Beamer in 2016 and was fired with a 43-31 record, too quickly. Virginia Tech fired Brent Pry after an 0-3 start dropped his record in 4+ seasons to 16-24. They have surprisingly strong fan support and solid facilities, and the ACC is wide open for a coach who can recruit the mid-Atlantic region. The job lacks the resources of SEC programs but offers an easier path to conference championships, and in turn, playoff contention.

8. Arkansas: The Razorbacks fired Sam Pittman after going 32-34, 14-29 in the SEC, over six seasons. They have real money (top-20 in the nation) and a devoted fan base, but the SEC schedule is brutal and in-state recruiting can't match neighboring Texas. Pittman's record shows just how hard it is to win consistently when you face teams like Georgia, Alabama, and (now) Texas every year. The last coach to leave Fayetteville with a winning record was Bobby Petrino in 2011 — and he’s now the program’s interim head coach.

9. Stanford: The Cardinal job has been open since late March when Troy Taylor was fired following workplace misconduct investigations, making it the longest-running vacancy on this list by far. Former Colts and Panthers head coach Frank Reich is serving as a one-year interim coach while the school (led by former Stanford quarterback and current general manager Andrew Luck) searches for a permanent replacement, adding instability to an already tough job with strict academic standards and cross-country ACC travel requirements. The upside? Last month the school received a $50 million gift from a former player to help recharge the program.

10. Oregon State: Trent Bray didn’t last two seasons in Corvallis, as he was fired after an 0-7 start to the year moved him to 5-14 overall. The Beavers are transitioning to a rebuilt Pac-12 next season, but there’s a lot less media money and a harder recruiting pitch than in the original version of the conference. What was once a Power-5 job is now essentially Group of 6, making it the least attractive opening on our list despite decent facilities and fan support.

4. By the Numbers

A First Look at the NFL Matchups Where Early Bettors Are Heavily on One Side

NBA

• Bucks (+3.5, -110) vs. Raptors (-3.5, -110): 55% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Toronto

  • MIL: 5-1, TOR 3-4

  • Injuries — Raptors: Jakob Poeltl (questionable)

• 76ers (+1.5, -114) vs. Bulls (-1.5, -106): 67% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • PHI: 3-1-2, CHI: 5-1-0

  • Injuries — 76ers: Jared McCain (probable); Bulls: Ayo Dosunmu (questionable), Coby White (out)

• Magic (-3.5, -108) vs. Hawks (+3.5, -112): 69% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Orlando

  • ORL: 2-5, ATL 2-5

  • Injuries — Magic: Moritz Wagner (out); Hawks: Trae Young (out)

• Suns (+10.5, -108) vs. Warriors (-10.5, -112): 66% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Phoenix

  • PHX: 3-3-1, GS: 4-3-0

  • Injuries — Suns: Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green (out), Ryan Dunn (probable); Warriors: Al Horford (out),

• Thunder (-7.5, -106) vs. Clippers (+7.5, -114): 75% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Oklahoma City

  • OKC 3-4, LAC 1-4

  • Injuries — Thunder: Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams (questionable), Jalen Williams (out)

NFL

• Raiders (+9.5, -115) vs. Broncos (-9.5, -105): 83% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Denver

  • LV: 3-5, DEN 4-5

• Falcons (+5.5, -110) vs. Colts (-5.5, -110): 69% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Indianapolis

  • ATL 4-4, IND 6-3

• Jaguars (+1.5, -115) vs. Texans (-1.5, -105): 74% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Houston

  • JAX: 4-4, HOU 3-5

• Giants (+3.5, -112) vs. Bears (-3.5, -108): 74% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Chicago

  • NYG: 4-5, CHI 5-3

• Ravens (-4.5, -105) vs. Vikings (+4.5, -115): 67% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Baltimore

  • BAL: 4-4, MIN 4-4

• Saints (+5.5, -115) vs. Panthers (-5.5, -105): 80% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Carolina

  • NO: 2-7, CAR: 6-3

• Bills (-9.5, -110) vs. Dolphins (+9.5, -110): 87% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Buffalo

  • BUF: 3-5, MIA: 4-5

• Patriots (+2.5, -110) vs. Buccaneers (-2.5, -110): 67% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

  • NE: 6-3, TB: 5-3

• Cardinals (+6.5, -105) vs. Seahawks (-6.5, -115): 85% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Seattle

  • ARI: 5-3, SEA: 6-2

• Rams (-3.5, -110) vs. 49ers (+3.5, -110): 66% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • LAR: 6-2, SF: 5-4

• Lions (-8.5, -112) vs. Commanders (+8.5, -108): 92% of the money and bets are with Detroit

  • DET: 5-3, WAS: 3-6

• Eagles (+2.5, -110) vs. Packers (-2.5, -110): 75% of the money and 84% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • PHI: 5-3, GB: 3-5

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Commanders coach Dan Quinn said he shouldn’t have left quarterback Jayden Daniels in as long as he did during Sunday’s blowout loss to the Seahawks. Daniels was knocked out of the game with under eight minutes remaining and his team down 38-7.

• With Ja Morant being suspended again, he could end up on the trade market. Would any teams be interested? He’s averaging 20.8 points, 6.7 assists and 3.3 rebounds in six games this season, including a 35-point performance in the opener, so the answer is likely yes.

• Basketball schools like St. John’s, Gonzaga and Wichita State have an advantage in the new era of college sports thats allows schools to pay players across all sports $20.5 million this year, reports the Associated Press. Most Division I programs are allocating the vast majority of that money to football, meaning they have to find other ways to compensate their basketball players.

• The Braves didn’t go very far to pick their next manager, as they promoted bench coach Walt Weiss yesterday. Weiss finished his playing career with Atlanta in 2000 and returned to the team as a coach in 2018 after four seasons managing the Colorado — where is was 283-365 and his best season (75-87) was his last.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Liverpool vs. Real Madrid (or PSG vs. Bayern Munich) in Champions League action on Paramount+

• 5:30pm: No. 20 Louisville vs. No. 1 UConn women’s college basketball on ESPN

• 7pm: Hurricanes vs. Rangers on TNT

• 8pm: Magic vs. Hawks on NBC

• 8:45pm: Texas vs. No. 6 Duke men’s college basketball on ESPN

• 9:30pm: Lightning vs. Avalanche on TNT

• 11pm: Thunder vs. Clippers on NBC