10 NBA Bets to Watch + An Unanswered CFP Question

Where bettors have money across the NBA and men’s college basketball

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: One final CFP question remains unanswered

2. The Rundown: The coach behind the Panthers’ unexpected rise

3. Game of the Day: There’s only one NBA matchup featuring two teams over .500 today

4. By the Numbers: Cavs are 3-9 ATS at home but 8-4 straight-up

5. Overtime: Congress is getting involved in college sports

1. Leading Off

The top 14 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings can all argue they should be in the field, but only 10 will make the cut because of the rule requiring the top five conference champions to earn bids. The final rankings before the brackets are set were released last night, with No. 3 Georgia sliding up a spot and No. 4 Texas Tech moving into bye territory after Texas A&M’s loss to Texas plunged the Aggies to 7th.

The biggest remaining question is will the CFP selection committee punish teams for losing conference championship games this weekend. Unfortunately, we won’t have the answer until Sunday’s bracket announcement. “We will evaluate the results of the championship games after they are all completed,” CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said on ESPN’s rankings release show yesterday.

Two teams should worry most about that statement: No. 9 Alabama and No. 10 Notre Dame. If Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, the committee could bump the then three-loss Crimson Tide out of the playoff. And if No. 11 BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, No. 12 Miami is waiting in the wings to be right behind Notre Dame. At that point the committee could swap the teams because of the Hurricanes’ win over the Fighting Irish in the first game of the season.

There’s also seeding drama that could happen based on the conference championship games. If Georgia or Texas Tech lose, the committee might move No. 5 Oregon into the top four and potentially give the Big Ten three byes — assuming No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are locked in already. For the first time this season, in the last meaningful poll of the year, there are questions surrounding the CFP rankings.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Carolina Already Beat Its Preseason Wins Total, Now Panthers Are Going For NFC South Title

• Dave Canales is in his second season with the Panthers and has his team competing for the NFC South title. At 7-6 after an upset over the Rams, Carolina has already surpassed its projected win total for the season. Take a few minutes to read the Associated Press’s feature about how Canales has managed to turn around a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2017.

• Zion Williamson will be out for at least three weeks, but it could be a lot longer. CBS Sports suggests that the time might be right for the Pelicans to finally move the oft-injured star who hasn’t quite lived up to his promise in New Orleans.

• In one of the more surprising recruiting moves in the past few years, five-star quarterback Jared Curtis flipped his commitment from Georgia to Vanderbilt. Curtis is a Nashville native, but ESPN’s No. 1-ranked pocket passer deciding to go to the former SEC bottom-dweller would have never happened before the NIL era. Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea just signed a six-year contract extension.

• And in more big money in college sports is changing the calculus news, BYU was able to keep head coach Kalani Sitake from leaving for Penn State by signing him to a long-term contract extension. The Nittany Lions made Sitake their top target and are now starting from scratch after the SEC schools already made their hires. Sitake has BYU at No. 11 and in the Big 12 championship game with a shot at a College Football Playoff berth.

• Former No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick Ben Simmons is still a free agent and said he return to the 76ers and play for free at this point. The 29-year-old played in 51 games for the Nets and Clippers last season, averaging 5.0 points, 5.6 assists and 4.7 rebounds in 22 minutes per game. In his four years in Philadelphia, Simmons never averaged fewer than 14.3 points, 6.9 assists, 7.2 rebounds and 32.4 minutes.

• ESPN and SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum has decided not to run for U.S. Senate in Alabama. Finebaum specifically named the Lane Kiffin saga as part of his rationale. “Here I am, I'm covering a guy who's being disloyal, and I ultimately felt a loyalty to the people who employ me and support me,” he told CBS.

3. Game of the Day

Bane Coming Off Two 37-Point Outings for Magic, One of NBA’s Hottest Teams

In the only NBA game of the night featuring two teams with winning records, the Spurs (Victor Wembanyama) and Magic (Paolo Banchero) will be without their stars. Both teams are doing fine in their absences, though, as Orlando has won 7 of 9 during Banchero’s latest injury and San Antonio is 6-2 with Wembanyama out.

Spurs (14-6, 5-4 Away) vs. Magic (13-8, 8-3 Home)
7pm

The Odds

• Spread: Spurs (+8, -108) vs. Magic (-8, -112)

  • 55% of the money is with Orlando but 60% of the bets are with San Antonio

  • ATS - SA (road): 6-3, ORL (home): 6-5

• Moneyline: Spurs +265, Magic -330

• Total (234.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • SA: 10-9, ORL: 13-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Spurs G De’Aaron Fox - Points: 25.5 (29, 25, 15), Reb: 3.5 (4, 2, 1), Ast: 6.5 (4, 4, 12)

• Spurs G Devin Vassell - Points: 16.5 (12, 22, 35), Reb: 3.5 (5, 1, 3), Ast: 2.5 (2, 3, 2)

• Magic F Franz Wagner - Points: 24.5 (25, 21, 21), Reb: 5.5 (6, 7, 5)

• Magic G Desmond Bane - Points: 23.5 (37, 37, 15), Reb: 4.5 (6, 8, 2), Ast: 4.5 (5, 2, 6)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Cavs Sport NBA’s Worst Record ATS at Home But Are 8-4 in Cleveland Straight-Up

NBA

• Nuggets (-7.5, -110) vs. Pacers (+7.5, -110): 82% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Denver

  • ATS - DEN (road): 6-4, IND (home): 6-5

  • Total (235.5) - DEN: 13-7, IND: 8-13

• Hornets (+9.5, -112) vs. Knicks (-9.5, -108): 66% of the money and 58% of the bets are with New York

  • ATS - CHA (road): 5-5, NYK (home): 7-4

  • Total (236.5) - CHA: 8-13, NYK: 11-9

• Clippers (+2.5, -106) vs. Hawks (-2.5, -114): 59% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Atlanta

  • ATS - LAC (road): 7-4, ATL (home): 4-4

  • Total (227.5) - LAC: 12-9, ATL: 12-10

• Nets (+8, -108) vs. Bulls (-8, -112): 64% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Chicago

  • ATS - BKN (road): 4-6, CHI (home): 4-4

  • Total (232.5) - BKN: 8-12, CHI: 11-9

• Kings (+15.5, -110) vs. Rockets (-15.5, -110): 61% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Sacramento

  • ATS - SAC (road): 6-5, HOU (home): 4-2-1

  • Total (230.5) - SAC: 10-11, HOU: 11-7

• Heat (-5.5, -110) vs. Mavericks (+5.5, -110): 69% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Miami

  • ATS - MIA (road): 6-3, DAL (home): 5-8

  • Total (240.5) - MIA: 12-9, DAl: 8-14

MCBB

• No. 22 Indiana (-10.5, -110) vs. Minnesota (+10.5, -110): 90% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Indiana

  • ATS - IND: 5-2, MIN: 2-6

• LSU (-7.5, -110) vs. Boston College (+7.5, -110): 79% of the money and 78% of the bets are with LSU

  • ATS - LSU: 4-3, BC: 3-5

• No. 6 Louisville (-2.5, -120) vs. No. 25 Arkansas (+2.5, -102): 66% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Louisville

  • ATS - LOU: 5-2, ARK: 4-3

• Virginia (+2.5, -106) vs. Texas (-2.5, -114): 73% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Texas

  • ATS - UVA: 4-3, UT: 4-3

• NC State (+6.5, -114) vs. No. 20 Auburn (-6.5, -106): 80% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Auburn

  • ATS - NCST: 4-3, AUB: 6-2

• UCLA (-1.5, -104) vs. Washington (+1.5, -118): 87% of the money and 79% of the bets are with UCLA

  • ATS - UCLA: 2-5, WAS: 3-4

5. Overtime

Quotable

“This is not supposed to be NFL-lite, but that is how we’re treating it.” — U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who voted against the SCORE Act, federal legislation that would reshape oversight of college athletics that moved forward in the House by a one-vote margin. According to Politico, the legislation “would provide antitrust exemptions to the industry’s overseers, preempt competing state laws and bar student athletes from being considered employees.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2:30pm: Arsenal vs. Brentford on USA

• 5pm: No. 17 Kentucky vs. Miami [WCBB] on ESPN2

• 7:15pm: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 25 Arkansas [MCBB] on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Sabres vs. Flyers on TNT

• 8:30pm: Heat vs. Mavericks on NBA TV

• 9:15pm: NC State vs. Auburn [MCBB] on ESPN (or Virginia vs. Texas [MCBB] on ESPNU)

• 10pm: Mammoth vs. Ducks on TNT