Our MNF and NBA Bets to Watch Today + Early NFL Week 11 Odds

We also rank the top 10 Heisman contenders

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What we learned from yesterday’s NFL action

2. Bets to Watch: Eagles are road underdogs, Packers coming off bad loss

3. Top 10: The Game looms large for Sayin’s Heisman chances

4. Public Money: Early NFL Week 11 odds

5. Overtime: Nineteen teams moved spots in the AP college football poll

1. Leading Off

Bills fans were right to be nervous, the Colts keep finding ways to win, the Ravens are back in form and should win their division, and the Rams are rolling. Unlike most Sundays this season, Week 10 in the NFL actually answered a lot of questions we had rather than creating new ones. Here are our five biggest takeaways, with the Eagles vs. Packers Monday Night Football matchup still to come:

• The Bills might have missed their window again. It’s still very early in the season to say this, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Miami has been much better in the second half of the year lately, but Buffalo has still owned them (won 14 of 15 before yesterday). A 30-13 beatdown to send the Bills to 6-3, two wins and a tiebreak behind the AFC East-leading Patriots, rightly has the Bills Mafia spooked that they missed another chance to win a Super Bowl with a star quarterback.

• The Colts are an actual Super Bowl contender. The international games are great to spread the NFL worldwide and to give us football on Sunday mornings, but it’s hard to judge teams performances because of the circumstances. The Colts didn’t look great, but after their second loss of the season last week they very easily could have buckled to adversity against a better-than-their-record Falcons squad. Instead, running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Indianapolis came back in the fourth quarter to force overtime and eventually win in Berlin.

• It’s (almost) time to call the Rams Super Bowl-caliber. Los Angeles throttled the 49ers on the road 42-26 and has looked unbeatable in their four games since losing to San Francisco at home. The problem? The three other teams were the Saints, Jaguars and Lamar Jackson-less Ravens. With back-to-back home matchups against the Seahawks and Buccaneers coming next, we’ll have more clarity on this team when December hits.

• New England deserves your respect. The Patriots won their seventh game in a row with an impressive road victory over the Buccaneers. Yet they have the sixth-best odds to win the AFC at +950. They have better odds to win their division (-210) because they should be 11-2 when the Bills come to town on December 14th, and Buffalo could be even further back based on their tougher schedule in the meantime.

• The Ravens officially earned their AFC North-favorite designation. Baltimore shook off a plucky Vikings squad (that was supposed to be better than plucky this season, but they are what they are) for a vital road victory to get to 4-5 in the midst of a three-game winning streak. The Steelers’ division lead is already down to one game after a lifeless performance last night in a 25-10 loss to the Chargers.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Eagles Have Gone Over in 3 Straight, Packers in 2 of 3 Games

By Craig Williams

Eagles vs. Packers over 45.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
NFL pundits have talked about this game as if it will have a playoff-like atmosphere. We’re not disputing that theory, and we’re envisioning a contest in which… 

3. Top 10

Sayin Probably Controls His Own Heisman Destiny, But Mendoza Has Opportunities to Shine

A quarterback is almost certainly going to with the Heisman Trophy for the eighth time in 10 years. Twelve of the top 14 contenders odds-wise on FanDuel are signal callers. The two odd men out: Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. Here are the top 10 Heisman contenders, which is nearly down to a four-person race:

1. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+160): The steady quarterback for the undefeated reigning CFP champions should get the benefit of the doubt. If the Buckeyes win out in the regular season, Sayin should get the nod even if others have more impressive statistics. If Ohio State falls to Michigan for the fifth year in a row, the door could open for the rest of this list.

2. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+170): The Hoosiers signal caller came out of nowhere to take the college football world by storm. He has Indiana almost assured a spot back in the playoff and is 181-254 for 2,342 yards, 26 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. Mendoza should be able to pick apart his final two regular season opponents, Wisconsin and Purdue, which gives him a real shot to win.

3. Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+500): His year started with a shocking upset loss to Florida State and an average day under center (53.5% completion percentage). But Simpson and the Crimson Tide haven’t lost since, including four victories in a row against top-16 teams, and he has just one interception all season (to 21 touchdowns).

4. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+700): Reed has done everything his team has needed him to do to keep an undefeated record. His stats aren’t as gaudy as the guys above him on this list — Reed has five games with 17 or fewer completions — but he’s waiting in the wings if Sayin, Mendoza and Simpson see regression.

5. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia (+2000): Pavia is one of the best stories in college football and has the 6th-best quarterback rating in the nation at 86.1. He’s had to carry his team more than usual the past two games with 38 pass attempts in a three-point loss to Texas and 33 in an overtime win against Auburn.

6. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (+3000): The Bulldogs are once again quietly a 1-loss team and still have a shot at making it back to the SEC title game. Either way, they have a 92% chance to make the CFP, according to ESPN. Stockton’s biggest game of the year came when his team needed it the most, a 289-yard, 4-touchdown performance in a win over Ole Miss, but his best attribute is being able to manage games and wins for Georgia.

7. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love (+3500): Love’s worst game of the season was the opener against Miami, when he had just 10 carries for 33 yards, and that one game dampened his Heisman hopes and Notre Dame’s playoff chances. But he deserves consideration for his 6.4 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns to go along with 254 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the air.

8. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+3000): Unfortunately for Smith, if he’s going to get the stats he needs to pass up all those quarterbacks and with the Heisman, it’s going to be at least in part because of the play of his teammate and the Heisman favorite. Smith has a touchdown in all but two games this season and gained 119+ yards in four games — including a combined 260 in his past two.

9. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (+10000): Chambliss was a backup to start the season, but came off the bench early in the third game of the season after an injury forced starter Austin Simmons out, and the understudy hasn’t looked back. His first game is still his best (21-29, 353 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT), but the senior transfer with two Division II national championships has found ways to beat every team he’s faced other than Georgia.

10. Georgia Tech QB Haynes King (+10000): The dual-threat quarterback’s chances took a nose dive after Georgia Tech’s perfect season came to an end two weeks ago, but King still merits a mention. The Yellow Jackets still have the ACC’s best odds to make it to the CFP, and along with his 1,888 yards through the air (72.1% completion, 9 TDs, 2 interceptions), King has 754 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

4. Public Money

Seven Week 11 NFL Matchups With 67%+ of Early Bettors Flocking to One Side

NFL

• Eagles (6-2, 3-1 Away) vs. Packers (5-2-1, 3-1 Home)

  • Spread — Eagles (+1.5, -115), Packers (-1.5, -105): 80% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Philadelphia

    • PHI: 5-3, GB: 3-5

  • Moneyline — Eagles -104, Packers -112

  • Total (45.5) — Over -110, Under -110

    • PHI: 5-3, GB: 4-4

NBA

• Lakers (-7.5, -115) vs. Hornets (+7.5, -105): 86% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • LAL: 7-3, CHA: 4-5

• Wizards (+12, -110) vs. Pistons (-12, -110): 77% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Detroit

  • WAS: 1-8-1, DET: 7-3-0

• Spurs (-3.5, -110) vs. Bulls (+3.5, -110): 72% of the money and 59% of the bets are with San Antonio

  • SA: 4-3-2, CHI: 6-2-1

• Bucks (-2, -108) vs. Mavericks (+2, -112): 88% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Milwaukee

  • MIL: 6-4, DAL: 4-6

• Timberwolves (-7.5, -110) vs. Jazz (+7.5, -110): 75% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • MIN: 4-6, UTA: 5-4

• Pelicans (+8, -106) vs. Suns (-8, -114): 75% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Phoenix

  • NO: 4-4-1, PHX: 5-3-2

Early NFL Week 11

• Jets (+11.5, -115) vs. Patriots (-11.5, -105): 89% of the money and 70% of the bets are with New England

  • NYJ: 5-4, NE: 7-3

• Commanders (+1.5, -105) vs. Dolphins (-1.5, -115): 90% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Miami

  • WAS: 3-6, MIA: 5-5

• Bears (+2.5, -102) vs. Vikings (-2.5, -120): 81% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • CHI: 5-4, MIN: 4-5

• Chiefs (-3.5, -110) vs. Broncos (+3.5, -110): 72% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Kansas City

  • KC: 5-4, DEN: 4-6

• Ravens (-8.5, -115) vs. Browns (+8.5, -105): 88% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Baltimore

  • BAL: 5-4, CLE: 3-6

• Lions (+1.5, -112) vs. Eagles (-1.5, -108): 67% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Detroit

  • DET: 6-3, PHI: 5-3

• Cowboys (-3, -120) vs. Raiders (+3, -102): 80% of the money and 84% of the bets are with Dallas

  • DAL: 4-5, LV: 4-5

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Nineteen teams in the AP Top 25 college football poll moved positions after last week’s action. Texas moved up three spots to No. 10, Texas Tech gained one place into 8th after beating previously undefeated BYU, which fell four spots to No. 12.

• Spurs point guard De'Aaron Fox scored 24 points on 9-14 shooting in his first game of the season. It was his first action for San Antonio, now 7-2, since suffering a hamstring injury on March 12th.

• ESPN ranked all 32 NHL teams and compared preseason projections with current pace. The Avalanche claimed the top spot while the Flames come in at No. 32.

• Fired LSU coach Brian Kelly wants to make sure the school knows it really does owe him $54 million. In a letter to the LSU athletic director, Kelly’s attorneys gave the school until 5pm today to confirm that it will “fulfill its contractual obligation.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Wizards vs. Pistons on Peacock

• 8pm: Mississippi State vs. No. 16 Iowa State (NCAAM) on ESPNU

• 8:15pm: Eagles vs. Packers on ABC/ESPN

• 10:30pm: Hawks vs. Clippers on NBA TV (or No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 UCLA (NCAAW) on FS1)