Insights on Tonight’s NBA Matchups + A Look at the Heisman

We also look at early spread activity in Week 14 in the NFL

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The Heisman could be up for grabs on Saturday

2. The Rundown: Could Pete Carroll be one and done?

3. Game of the Day: Thunder have won 12 straight, get Warriors without Curry

4. By the Numbers: Eight Week 14 NFL matchups that spread bettors are jumping on early

5. Overtime: Andy Reid thinks his Chiefs still have a shot

1. Leading Off

Not only are No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana playing for the Big Ten championship and likely top seed in the College Football Playoff on Saturday, their starting quarterbacks are probably going head-to-head for the Heisman Trophy.

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who transferred to Bloomington from the University of California after two seasons on the West Coast, is the very slight favorite at most sportsbooks ahead of the matchup. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, the sophomore who waited behind Will Howard last year as he led the Buckeyes to the national title, is right behind him.

Only one of the quarterbacks will still be undefeated after Saturday, so that could end up being the deciding factor (though inexplicably, Heisman voting opens up two hours before kickoff). From a statistics perspective, Sayin has a bit of an edge. He has completed an astonishing 78.9% of his passes (258-327) for 3,065 yards with 30 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Buckeyes’ signal caller averages 9.4 yards per pass, was only sacked six times and has a 184.8 rating.

Mendoza is 211-293 on the year (good for a 72%) with 2,758 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also averages 9.4 yards per pass, but was sacked 15 times and has a 183.7 rating. Mendoza actually has 246 fewer passing yards this year than he did last season at Cal, but that has a lot to do with Indiana winning in blowout fashion in a bunch of games.

Sayin didn’t come out of nowhere, he had the 10th-best odds to win the Heisman to start the year, but Mendoza’s rise has been pretty surprising: 21 players began the season with a better shot at being named the best player in college football.

The quarterback that will be watching the game but still has a shot to take the trophy from both of them: Vanderbilt sensation Diego Pavia, the New Mexico State transfer who led the Commodores to a 10-2 record and has more passing yards than the frontrunners.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

The Raiders Imploded This Season and at 2-10 Pete Carroll’s Job Could Be on the Line

• CBS Sports updated its NFL head coach hot seat rankings and has a new No. 1: Pete Carroll went from unranked to the top spot after his 2-10 Raiders imploded spectacularly and he started firing assistant coaches. Could both of Ohio’s NFL head coaches also be in jeopardy?

• At 9-3, the Bears have already gone over the win total sportsbooks set for them for the year and sit atop the NFC. They have a five game winning streak. But because of the depth of the conference, most pundits still aren’t sure Chicago will even make the playoffs. First-year coach Ben Johnson is confident, though. Check out The Athletic’s story.

• UCLA has decided to hire James Madison’s Bob Chesney as its next head coach, according to ESPN. Chesney’s current school is playing in the Sun Belt championship game on Friday and will earn a spot in the College Football Playoff if it ends up as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. James Madison is currently ranked 19th.

  • In other college football coaching news, Penn State is focused on prying away BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, according to multiple reports, and Kentucky moved quickly to hire Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein to replace Mark Stoops as head coach.

• Michigan climbed four spots to No. 3 in the AP Top 25 men’s college basketball poll after destroying Gonzaga by 40 and moving to 7-0. Purdue and Arizona remained at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, while Michigan State moved into the top 10 at No. 7 with a four-place jump of its own, and Iowa State came in at No. 10 after rising five slots.

3. Game of the Day

Thunder Have Won 12 Straight, Face Curry-Less Warriors While Williams is in Third Game Back

The Thunder have won 12 straight, have a +15.5 point differential, are third in the NBA in points and first in scoring defense. In short, Oklahoma City looks completely unstoppable. In come the Warriors, which set a record in 2015-2016 that the Thunder could end up challenging: 73 regular season wins. Golden State will likely struggle to slow Oklahoma City today, though, as Steph Curry remains out with a quad injury. Thunder guard Jalen Williams is easing back into the lineup after recovering from wrist surgery, scoring 11 points in 29 minutes in his first game back and 16 in 34 in his second game on Sunday (he added eight rebounds, five assists and three blocks).

Thunder (20-11, 0-1 Away) vs. Warriors (11-10, 7-2 Home)
11pm on NBC

The Odds

• Spread: Thunder (-11.5, -118), Warriors (+11.5, -104)

  • 53% of the money is with Oklahoma City but 56% of the bets are with Golden State

  • ATS - OKC (road): 6-5, GS (home): 4-5

• Moneyline: Thunder -590, Warriors +450

• Total (222.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • OKC: 10-11, GS: 12-9

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Points: 30.5 (26, 37, 40), Reb: 4.5 (4, 3, 6)

• Thunder C Chet Holmgren - Points: 16.5 (19, 23, 12), Reb: 9.5 (9, 8, 9)

• Warriors F Jimmy Butler - Points: 21.5 (24, 21, 18), Reb: 5.5 (8, 5, 6), Ast: 5.5 (10, 5, 7)

• Warriors G Brandin Podziemski - Points: 13.5 (15, 14, 6), Reb: 4.5 (5, 4, 5)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Eight Week 14 NFL Games Where 60%+ of Early Spread Betters Jumped in With a Team

NBA

• Wizards (+13, -108) vs. 76ers (-13, -112): The money is 50/50 but 56% of the bets are with Washington. ATS - WAS (road): 6-5, PHI (home): 6-5

  • Bilal Coulibaly - Points: 10.5 (11, 9, 7), Ast: 3.5 (2, 4, 3)

  • Tyrese Maxey - Points: 31.5 (44, 22, 20), Reb: 4.5 (7, 9, 1), Ast: 7.5 (9, 7, 4)

• Trail Blazers (+5.5, -110) vs. Raptors (-5.5, -110): 68% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Raptors. ATS - POR (road): 7-4, TOR (home): 3-6

  • Deni Avdija - Points: 24.5 (31, 37, 22), Reb: 7.5 (19, 6, 4), Ast: 6.5 (10, 8, 5)

  • Scottie Barnes - Points: 19.5 (18, 30, 24), Reb: 7.5 (5, 12, 10), Ast: 4.5 (4, 5, 4)

• Knicks vs. Celtics

  • Jalen Brunson - Points: 27.5 (18, 37, 33), Reb: 3.5 (6, 1, 2), Ast: 6.5 (7, 5, 3)

  • Jaylen Brown - Points: 27.5 (19, 41, 33), Ast: 5.5 (11, 7, 5)

• Timberwolves (-10, -114) vs. Pelicans (+10, -106): 76% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Minnesota. ATS - MIN (road): 5-5, NO (home): 7-4

  • Anthony Edwards - Points: 29.5 (32, 39, 31), Reb: 4.5 (3, 2, 8), Ast: 4.5 (6, 5, 5)

  • Zion Williamson - Points: 23.5 (25, 17, 29), Ast: 4.5 (4, 4, 2)

• Grizzlies (+5, -110) vs. Spurs (-5, -110): 70% of the money and 67% of the bets are with San Antonio. ATS - MEM (road): 3-8, SA (home): 4-6

  • Jaylen Wells - Points: 12.5 (15, 13, 25), Reb: 3.5 (3, 6, 3)

  • De’Aaron Fox - Points: 24.5 (25, 15, 37), Reb: 3.5 (2, 1, 6), Ast: 6.5 (4, 12, 8)

NFL

• Cowboys (+3, -106) vs. Lions (-3, -114): 68% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Dallas. ATS - DAL (road): 3-3, DET (home): 3-3

• Seahawks (-8.5, -102) vs. Falcons (+8.5, -120): 62% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Seattle. ATS - SEA (road):5-1, ATL (home): 2-3

• Saints (+8.5, -108) vs. Buccaneers (-8.5, -112): 83% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Tampa Bay. ATS - NO (road): 3-3, TB (home): 1-4

• Commanders (-1.5, -105) vs. Vikings (+1.5, -115): 68% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Washington. ATS - WAS (road): 1-4, MIN (home): 1-4

• Titans (+3.5, -115) vs. Browns (-3.5, -105): 67% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Cleveland. ATS - TEN (road): 2-3, CLE (home): 4-1

• Broncos (-7.5, -106) vs. Raiders (+7.5, -114): 89% of the money and 78% of the bets are with the Broncos. ATS - DEN (road): 2-2-1, LV (home): 2-4

• Rams (-8.5, -105) vs. Cardinals (+8.5, -115): 94% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Los Angeles. ATS - LAR (road): 3-2, ARI (home): 1-5

• Texans (+3.5, -120) vs. Chiefs (-3.5, -102): 72% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Houston. ATS - HOU (road): 2-4, KC (home): 4-1-1

5. Overtime

Quotable

“We’re going to go after you every game, and that’s how we roll. We’re going to tickle your tonsils on every play, every game. But that’s the attitude we’re coming in with, and then you let the chips fall where they may.” — Chiefs head coach Andy Reid on his team’s playoff hopes after falling to 6-6, 10th in the AFC. FanDuel gives Kansas City +106 odds to make the postseason, just behind Houston and ahead of Detroit.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2:30pm: Fulham vs. Manchester City on USA

• 7:30pm: No. 15 Florida vs. No. 4 Duke [MCBB] on ESPN

• 8pm: Knicks vs. Celtics on NBC

• 9pm: No. 5 Uconn vs. No. 21 Kansas [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 9:30pm: No. 16 UNC vs. No. 18 Kentucky [MCBB] on ESPN

• 11pm: Thunder vs. Warriors on NBC