Thursday Night Football Insights + Bets to Watch in the NBA and NHL

We also look at public money, NBA totals and injury reports

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The NFL playoff picture

2. The Rundown: USC ended the SEC’s 17-year reign

3. Game of the Day: Neither the Cowboys nor Lions can afford a loss on TNF

4. By the Numbers: Golden State is 9-3 ATS on the road

5. Overtime: Former Steelers QB says it’s time for Tomlin to go

1. Leading Off

The NFL playoff situation is as unpredictable as its ever been. Even the 4-8 Bengals still have a shot, as they’re just two games back of the Ravens and Steelers for the AFC North lead. Eleven teams in the AFC are still realistically vying for the postseason, and 10 are still fighting in the NFC. That means 21 of the 32 franchises still have hope with five weeks to go. Only five teams have been technically eliminated (Cardinals, Giants, Raiders, Saints and Titans).

Here’s how we have those 21 teams tiered:

• Basically in the Playoffs

  • AFC: Patriots (11-2) and Broncos (10-2)

  • NFC: None

• Pretty Likely

  • AFC: Chargers (8-4), Bills (8-4)

  • NFC: Rams (9-3), Seahawks (9-3), Eagles (8-4)

• Work to Do

  • AFC: Jaguars (8-4), Colts (8-4), Texans (7-5), Ravens (6-6), Steelers (6-6)

  • NFC: Bears (9-3), 49ers (9-4), Packers (8-3-1), Buccaneers (7-5)

• Need Help

  • AFC: Chiefs (6-6) and Bengals (4-8)

  • NFC: Lions (7-5), Cowboys (6-5-1), Panthers (7-6)

This week all but three games have playoff implications (those are all at 1pm on Sunday), and six of the 14 games feature two teams with records of .500 or better. With the NFL already setting ratings records, the postseason maneuvering will almost certainly come down to Week 18 and the playoffs will be impossible to predict.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

USC Ended the SEC’s 17-Year Run Atop the Recruiting Rankings With Its Massive 35-Athlete Class

• The NFL is more popular than ever. The Chiefs vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving matchup was the most-watched regular season game in NFL history with 57.2 million viewers, shattering the record of 42.1 million set in 2022. The early Thanksgiving matchup between the Lions and the Packers also broke the previous mark, as it drew 47.7 million viewers.

• The poorly timed Early Signing Period in college football, which is the reason for the coaching carousel drama before the College Football Playoff, began yesterday. USC appears to have ended the SEC’s 17-year run of signing the No. 1 class in the nation with its massive 35-athlete class. Miami is the last school to beat out the SEC, and this is USC’s first top-5 class since 2018.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is in discussions with the Bucks about his future with the team, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. The superstar could be available for a trade if the 10-13 Bucks aren’t his “best fit.” The move comes after Antetokounmpo considered asking to leave in the offseason but decided to give Milwaukee another chance.

• With Shedeur Sanders set to make his third start for the Browns, Deshaun Watson is returning to practice. Cleveland’s $230 million quarterback has 21 days to show he is healthy enough to play. Watson hasn’t taken the field for the Browns since October of last year when he ruptured his Achilles tendon.

• Ole Miss Athletic Director Keith Carter told SuperTalk Mississippi that his former coach Lane Kiffin said “a lot of things publicly that I’m not sure are totally accurate.” His most eye-opening statement: “It was very clear that coaching in the postseason was not going to be an option for Coach Kiffin several weeks ago.” Additionally, ESPN reported that “Several prominent Ole Miss players posted Tuesday night on X, disputing Kiffin's claim about them asking him to stay.”

3. Game of the Day

Cowboys Gain Most Yards Per Game in NFL, Lions are 3rd, Both Desperately Need a Win

The Cowboys gain more yards than any other team in the NFL. So why are they just a game over .500? Only three teams give up more than the 376.2 yards per game Dallas surrenders every week. Still, the Cowboys can cement themselves as playoff contenders with an upset win over the Lions, who at one point were Super Bowl contenders. Detroit has one of the best offenses in the NFL as well and can’t afford a loss either, as their already two wins behind the current last seed in the NFC, the 49ers.

Cowboys (6-5-1, 2-4 Away) vs. Lions (7-5, 4-2 Home)
8:15pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: Cowboys (+3, -115), Lions (-3, -105)

  • 62% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Dallas

  • ATS | DAL (road): 3-3, DET (home): 3-3

• Moneyline: Cowboys +132, Lions -156

• Total (54.5): Over -105, Under -115

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Lions QB Jared Goff - Passing Yards: 252.5 (256, 279, 255), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (26, 42, 37), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 2, 1)

• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott - Passing Yards: 269.5 (320, 354, 268), Pass Attempts: 35.5 (39, 36, 33), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 2, 4), Rushing Yards: 10.5 (-2, 9, -4)

• Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs - Rushing Yards: 76.5 (68, 219, 39), Rush Attempts: 15.5 (20, 15, 12), Anytime TD: -230 (0, 3, 0)

• Cowboys RB Javonte Williams - Rushing Yards: 65.5 (59, 87, 93), Rush Attempts: 16.5 (17, 20, 22), Anytime TD: -145 (1, 0, 0)

• Lions WR Jameson Williams - Receiving Yards: 83.5 (144, 0, 88), Receptions: 5.5 (7, 0, 4), Anytime TD: +100 (1, 0, 1)

• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb - Receiving Yards: 83.5 (112, 75, 66), Receptions: 5.5 (7, 4, 5), Anytime TD: +120 (1, 0, 1)

• Cowboys WR George Pickens - Receiving Yards: 80.5 (88, 146, 144), Receptions: 5.5 (6, 9, 9), Anytime TD: +125 (0, 1, 1)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Celtics are 3-7 ATS on the Road, Face Wizards (6-2 ATS at Home)

NBA

• Warriors (+3.5, -114) vs. 76ers (-3.5, -106): 52% of the money is with Philadelphia but the bets are 50/50

  • ATS | GS (road): 9-3, PHI (home): 6-6

  • Total (222.5) | GS: 13-9, PHI: 11-9

  • Injuries | GS: Curry (O), Butler (DD); PHI: Oubre Jr. (O), George (DD), Embiid (DD)

  • Players to Watch

    • Draymond Green (GS) - Points: 10.5 (13, 2, 12), Reb: 7.5 (9, 9, 9), Ast: 5.5 (4, 4, 9)

    • VJ Edgecombe (PHI) - Points: 12.5 (9, 7, 12), Reb: 4.5 (6, 2, 10), Ast: 3.5 (6, 2, 3)

• Celtics (-9.5, -112) vs. Wizards (+9.5, -108): 79% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Boston

  • ATS | BOS (road): 3-7, WAS (home): 6-2

  • Total (229.5) | BOS: 9-12, WAS: 12-8

  • Injuries | BOS: Brown (DD); WAS: Coulibaly (O), Sarr (O)

  • Players to Watch

    • Payton Pritchard (BOS) - Points: 21.5 (10, 42, 9), Reb: 4.5 (4, 3, 5), Ast: 6.5 (3, 3, 4)

    • Derrick White (BOS) - Points: 21.5 (22, 16, 27), Reb: 4.5 (2, 1, 7), Ast: 6.5 (5, 5, 3)

    • Khris Middleton (WAS) - Points: 11.5 (15, 12, 10), Reb: 3.5 (4, 6, 7), Ast: 3.5 (6, 4, 12)

    • Marvin Bagley (WAS) - Points: 11.5 (13, 22, 13), Reb: 7.5 (8, 8, 7)

• Jazz (-4.5, -110) vs. Nets (+4.5, -110): 65% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Utah

  • ATS | UTA (road): 3-5, BKN (home): 4-6

  • Total (232.5) | UTA: 12-8, BKN: 8-12

  • Injuries | UTA: Nurkic (DD); BKN: Mann (O)

  • Players to Watch

    • Keyonte George (UTA) - Points: 21.5 (28, 0, 31), Reb: 3.5 (4, 1, 5), Ast: 7.5 (8, 2, 6)

    • Svi Mykhailiuk (UTA) - Points: 8.5 (10, 11, 9), Reb: 2.5 (6, 1, 3)

• Lakers (+2.5, -112) vs. Raptors (-2.5, -108): 51% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • ATS | LAL (road): 4-6, TOR (home): 4-6

  • Total (228.5) | LAL: 14-6, TOR: 9-13

  • Injuries | LAL: Doncic (O); TOR: Barrett (O), Poeltl (O)

  • Players to Watch

    • Austin Reeves (LAL) - Points: 29.5 (16, 33, 38), Reb: 5.5 (4, 5, 8), Ast: 7.5 (3, 8, 3)

    • Immanuel Quickley (TOR) - Points: 17.5 (23, 19, 22), Reb: 3.5 (5, 2, 3), Ast: 7.5 (8, 8, 10)

    • Brandon Ingram (TOR) - Points: 22.5 (21, 14, 22), Reb: 5.5 (6, 1, 6), Ast: 3.5 (3, 4, 4)

    • Scottie Barnes (TOR) - Points: 21.5 (28, 18, 30), Reb: 7.5 (7, 5, 12), Ast: 5.5 (7, 4, 5)

• Timberwolves (-11.5, -110) vs. Pelicans (+11.5, -110): 60% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • ATS | MIN (road): 6-5, NO (home): 8-4

  • Total (232.5) | MIN: 11-10, NO: 13-9

  • Injuries | NO: Jones (O), Williamson (O)

  • Players to Watch

    • Anthony Edwards (MIN) - Points: 30.5 (44, 32, 39), Reb: 5.5 (5, 3, 2), Ast: 4.5 (4, 6, 5)

    • Donte DiVincenzo (MIN) - Points: 13.5 (15, 18, 15), Reb: 4.5 (4, 5, 3), Ast: 3.5 (5, 4, 8)

    • Jeremiah Fears (NO) - Points: 15.5 (21, 21, 16), Reb: 3.5 (3, 2, 6), Ast: 2.5 (5, 3, 2)

NHL

• Predators (+1.5, -148) vs. Panthers (-1.5, +120): 91% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Florida

• Avalanche (-1.5, +118) vs. Islanders (+1.5, -144): 95% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Colorado

• Kraken (+1.5, -140) vs. Oilers (-1.5, +114): 63% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Edmonton

• Blues -142 vs. Bruins +120: 83% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Boston

• Rangers +124 vs. Senators -148: 75% of the money is with New York but the bets are 50/50

5. Overtime

Quotable

“Maybe it’s a clean house time. Maybe it’s time. I like Coach Tomlin. I have a lot of respect for Coach Tomlin. But maybe it’s best for him, too. Maybe a fresh start for him is what’s best. Whether that’s in the pros, maybe go be Penn State’s head coach. You know what he would do at Penn State? He’d probably go win national championships, because he’s a great recruiter.” — former Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on his podcast both suggesting that his former coach might need to be fired while also talking up his potential.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: Manchester United vs. West Ham on USA

• 7pm: Warriors vs. 76ers on NBA TV

• 8:15pm: Cowboys vs. Lions on Prime Video

• 9pm: No. 18 Notre Dame vs. No. 13 Ole Miss [WCBB] on ESPN2