Our 20 Bets to Watch Across Today’s NFL Slate

Bettors are conflicted on 49ers vs. Browns spread, as Cleveland is 4-0 ATS at home

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The Rams have become a significant Super Bowl favorite

2. The Rundown: College football conference championship games are set

3. Game of the Day: Bills need a win to stay in AFC East contention

4. By the Numbers: Browns are surprisingly undefeated ATS at home

5. Overtime: Ryan Day finally beat Michigan again

1. Leading Off

The Rams have become significant favorites to win the Super Bowl. Whether that is the strength of their team or everyone else continuing to lose is up for debate. Either way, Los Angeles travels across the country to face a better-than-advertised Carolina squad. In a show of the Rams’ strength, they’re favored by 10.5 against the 6-6 Panthers.

With an offense that scores the 6th-most points per game (27.8) and a defense that gives up the fewest points in the NFL (16.3), the Rams are one of the most balanced teams in the league. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 30 touchdown passes (five more than anyone else) to just two interceptions in his best season since he led the Rams to Super Bowl LVI.

Seven of LA’s nine wins have come against teams that are currently .500 or better, and the Rams just beat the 49ers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers in a row. With the best record in the NFC and the 12th-easiest remaining schedule, the Rams might not even have to leave California to win Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

The College Football Conference Championship Games are Set and Have CFP Implications

• No. 1 Ohio State will face No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten title game in a battle of undefeated teams, No. 10 Alabama and No. 4 Georgia will play for the SEC championship, No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU have a rematch for Big 12 supremacy, and after SMU’s shocking loss to Cal, Duke and No. 18 Virginia are going head-to-head for the ACC crown. A five-loss Duke team might not even earn a trip to the College Football Playoff with an upset win in that matchup.

• Quarterback Shedeur Sanders has a chance to play his way into the Brown’s longer-term starting role, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports. After giving rookie Dillon Gabriel six starts before he suffered a concussion, Cleveland is open to allowing Sanders to “prove he can be the Browns' answer at quarterback,” Schefter wrote.

• With its loss to Texas on Friday, Texas A&M’s resume is looking thin. The Aggies went into the game No. 3 in the country, 11-0 and in first in the SEC. But a closer look reveals that not one of their conference wins came against a team that finished with a winning record in the SEC. A&M beat Notre Dame by one at home early in the season, but other than that, it’s beginning to look like the Aggies might not deserve the playoff home game they’re likely to get.

• The group stage of the NBA Cup is over, and CBS Sports picks the winners and losers of the first round of the in-season tournament. In the East, the Raptors and Magic both won their groups with 4-0 records, the Knicks won Group C at 3-1 and the Heat earned the Wild Card with the only other 3-1 record in the conference. In the West, the Thunder and Lakers finished undefeated, the Spurs won their group 3-1, and and Suns earned the Wild Card at 3-1 via a tiebreak over the Grizzlies.

• Milan-Cortina Winter Games organizers said “There is no Plan B” if the main hockey arena isn’t ready in time for February’s Olympics. This will be the first time in more than a decade that NHL players will be competing, and construction delays have added an extra layer of stress to logistics. According to the Associated Press, “new Olympic venues are tested at least the year before hosting medal events” and “there is no precise date” for when the arena will be ready.

3. Game of the Day

Bills Must Win at Pittsburgh to Stay in Contention for 6th-Straight AFC East Title

The Bills can’t afford another loss if they want to win the AFC East, as they’re already three wins behind the Patriots and New England has an easier closing slate. The Steelers got a reprieve from the Ravens’ march toward taking the AFC North lead with Baltimore’s lifeless loss to Cincinnati in Joe Burrow’s return on Thanksgiving. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back under center today.

Bills (7-4, 2-3 Away) vs. Steelers (6-5, 4-2 Home)
4:25pm on CBS

The Odds

• Spread: Bills (-3, -112), Steelers (+3, -108)

  • 73% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Buffalo

  • ATS — BUF (road): 2-3, PIT (home): 3-2

• Moneyline: Bills -178, Steelers +150

• Total (45.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • BUF: 5-6, PIT: 6-5

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Bills QB Josh Allen — Passing Yards: 232.5 (253, 317, 306), Passing TD: 1.5 (0, 3, 2), Rush Yards: 29.5 (20, 40, 31)

• Bills RB James Cook III — Rush Yards: 82.5 (116, 48, 53), Anytime TD: +100 (1, 1, 0)

• Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers — Passing Yards: 202.5 (116, 161, 203), Passing TD: 1.5 (1, 1, 1)

• Steelers WR DK Metcalf — Receiving Yards: 46.5 (22, 49, 35), Receptions: 3.5 (8, 8, 7), Anytime TD: +185 (1, 0, 0)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Bettors are Split on 49ers vs. Browns Spread as Cleveland is 4-0 ATS at Home

NFL

• 49ers (-5.5, -110) vs. Browns (+5.5, -110): 54% of the money is with San Francisco and 51% of the bets are with Cleveland. ATS — SF (road): 5-2, CLE (home): 4-0

  • 49ers QB Brock Purdy — Passing Yards: 199.5 (193, 200), Passing TD: 1.5 (1, 3), Passing Attempts: 27.5 (32, 26)

  • Browns RB Quinshon Judkins — Rush Yards: 69.5 (47, 59, 75), Rush Attempts: 17.5 (16, 17, 22), Anytime TD: +100 (2, 0, 0)

• Jaguars (-6.5, -102) vs. Titans (+6.5, -120): 73% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Jacksonville. ATS — JAX (road): 2-3, TEN (home): 3-3

  • Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence — Passing Yards: 217.5 (256, 153, 158), Passing TD: 1.5 (3, 1, 1), Passing Attempts: 31.5 (30, 22, 23)

  • Titans RB Tony Pollard — Rush Yards: 38.5 (20, 22, 56), Rush Attempts: 11.5 (11, 10, 10)

• Cardinals (+3.5, -105) vs. Buccaneers (-3.5, -115): 76% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Tampa Bay. ATS — ARI (road): 4-1, TB (home): 1-3

  • Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield — Passing Yards: 230.5 (173, 273, 152), Passing TD: 1.5 (1, 3, 0), Passing Attempts: 32.5 (28, 43, 24)

  • Cardinals TE Trey McBride — Receiving Yards: 68.5 (70, 115, 127), Receptions: 6.5 (9, 10, 9), Anytime TD: +120 (0, 1, 1)

• Raiders (+9.5, -110) vs. Chargers (-9.5, -110): 92% of the money and 73% of the bets are with Los Angeles. ATS — LV (road): 2-3, LAC (home): 2-2-1

  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert — Passing Yards: 235.5 (81, 220, 250), Passing TD: 1.5 (0, 1, 2), Passing Attempts: 32.5 (18, 33, 29)

  • Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty — Rush Yards: 56.5 (50, 7, 60), Rush Attempts: 16.5 (17, 6, 19), Anytime TD: +180 (0, 0, 1)

NBA

• Celtics (+7.5, -106) vs. Cavaliers (-7.5, -114): 65% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Boston.

  • ATS — BOS: 9-9-1, CLE: 6-14-0

  • Total (233.5) — BOS: 8-11, CLE: 9-11

• Thunder (-12.5, -112) vs. Trail Blazers (+12.5, -108): 57% of the money and 71% of the bets are with Oklahoma City.

  • ATS — OKC: 10-10, POR: 9-10

  • Total (230.5) — OKC: 9-11, POR: 12-7

• Spurs (+3.5, -110) vs. Timberwolves (-3.5, -110): 68% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Minnesota.

  • ATS — SA: 9-7-2, MIN: 7-12-2

  • Total (233.5) — SA: 9-9, MIN: 9-10

• Grizzlies (-3, -112) vs. Kings (+3, -108): 90% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Sacramento.

  • ATS — MEM: 8-12, SAC: 7-12-1

  • Total (233.5) — MEM: 7-13, SAC: 10-10

• Pelicans (+14.5, -110) vs. Lakers (-14.5, -110): 72% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Los Angeles.

  • ATS — NO: 9-9-1, LAL: 13-5

  • Total (233.5) — NO: 11-8, LAL: 12-6

5. Overtime

Quotable

“I’ve thought, as you can imagine over the years, what I’d say in this press conference. I’m going to save all those comments because I think the best thing to do is win with humility.” — Ohio State coach Ryan Day after ending Michigan’s four-game winning streak over his Buckeyes, who are headed to the Big Ten Championship game against Indiana next week.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 11am: F1’s Qatar Grand Prix on ESPN2

• 11:30am: Chelsea vs. Arsenal on USA

• 1pm: Texans vs. Colts on CBS (or Rams vs. Panthers on FOX)

• 4:25pm: Bills vs. Steelers on CBS

• 4:30pm: No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 3 UCLA [WCBB] on FS1

• 8:20pm: Broncos vs. Commanders on NBC