Insights on Today’s College Football Conference Championship Games

We also have stats and trends for NBA and college basketball matchups

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The college football chaos that could come

2. The Rundown: Duke might ruin the ACC’s CFP chances

3. Game of the Day: OSU gives up an average of 7.8 points, Indiana is at 10.9

4. By the Numbers: An overview of the other CFB conference championship matchups

5. Overtime: Michael Jordan isn’t afraid of NASCAR

1. Leading Off

The season has generally gone as expected since the College Football Playoff committee’s first poll on November 4th. By then we already knew Texas and Penn State, the AP’s preseason No. 1 and No. 2 teams, weren’t contenders. Alabama wasn’t the disaster it looked like in Week 1, Indiana wasn’t a fluke, the Big 12 was top-heavy more than deep, and the ACC was a crapshoot.

ESPN analysts did a good job of trying to create drama on the CFP rankings show each week, but there really hasn’t been much. Controversy isn’t likely, but an all-nighter for the CFP committee is still possible.

If No. 11 BYU upsets No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, that probably moves the Red Raiders out of a bye spot and boots No. 10 Notre Dame out of the playoff entirely. But if Texas Tech wins and BYU moves down the rankings, that means No. 12 Miami would suddenly be right behind the Fighting Irish, who the Hurricanes beat in Week 1. Would the committee make a last-minute switch based on that head-to-head matchup? They could have Miami (10-2) at No. 10, Notre Dame (10-2) at No. 11, and BYU (11-1) at No. 12 in the current poll, so it shouldn’t happen — but it could.

What if No. 3 Georgia blows out No. 9 Alabama in the SEC championship? That would give the Crimson Tide three losses, which could be too many to stay in the field if the last one is a bad one. Dropping in the rankings for losing in a conference title game seems reasonable, but falling out of the playoff entirely for a defeat in an extra game against a top-quality opponent would be a difficult sell for the committee to make. Another wrinkle would be if Alabama beats Georgia again: Is that enough for the Bulldogs to lose their bye? It could make sense in theory, but in practice that would likely mean No. 5 Oregon moves up and gives the Big Ten three of four byes. The committee almost certainly won’t (can’t) do that to the SEC.

Then there are the Blue Devils. If Duke beats No. 17 Virginia for the ACC crown, the CFP committee will have to decide if its going to keep a Power Four conference out of the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion No. 25 James Madison, which lost by 14 points to Louisville. The Cardinals finished 4-4 in the ACC. Even though Duke isn’t currently ranked, the “eye test” should be enough for committee members to fiddle with their rankings to ensure Duke finishes ahead of James Madison — unless chaos opens the door for Miami’s at-large bid.

The two teams we haven’t mentioned, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana, play for the Big Ten championship and look the most locked into their spots. The winner will be the No. 1 seed in the playoff, but unless the loser has a massive meltdown, they’ll likely still end up with a bye.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

A Duke Win Over No. 17 Virginia Could Doom the ACC’s Playoff Chances

• Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said “of course we can win out” after his team’s loss to the Lions dropped them to 6-6-1 and in 10th place in the NFC. Dallas will likely be favored in three of its final four games, but the 49ers, who currently hold the seventh and final playoff spot in the conference, already have nine wins.

• The ACC could face a nightmare scenario if Duke wins its football championship later today: The conference could miss out on an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff (Miami’s at-large resume notwithstanding). Duke ended up in the title game because of a five-way tie for second, but is unranked at 7-5 and could stay behind No. 20 Tulane (American champion) and No. 25 James Madison (Sun Belt winner) even with a win over No. 17 Virginia.

• After enduring an embarrassing coaching search, Penn State ended up hiring a guy that NFL and other major college programs have sought for years in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. If Campbell lives up to the reputation that has caused so many teams to seek him out, this hire could limit the damage the Penn State administration caused in one of the worst hiring processes possible.

• The World Cup draw was favorable to the United States, as the men’s team’s group was ranked between 7-10 out of 12 by most pundits. The U.S. will start its campaign on June 12th against Paraguay, which it beat 2-1 last month, then faces Australia, which also lost to the U.S. in the last matchup, before ending the group stage against a UEFA playoff winner — most likely Türkiye. The countries not as lucky: France was matched up with Norway and Senegal, and England has Croatia, Ghana, and Panama.

• Interested in going to the Winter Olympics in Milan? Plenty of good seats are still available. According to organizers, only about 850,000 of the 1.5 million available tickets have been sold. “That’s normal. The local fans get interested closer and I think the beginning of the torch relay will be a very important moment for people realizing that,” the Games’ CEO told the Associated Press.

3. Game of the Day

Buckeyes and Hoosiers’ QBs are Heisman Favorites, But Defenses are Top-4 in Nation

Ohio State started the season by beating then-No. 1 Texas 14-7 and haven’t been challenged since. Now ranked No. 1 themselves, the Buckeyes face the undefeated No. 2 Hoosiers, who had three close calls this year and beat then-No. 3 Oregon in Eugene, in the Big Ten championship game. Both Ohio State and Indiana have probably already done enough to earn byes in the College Football Playoff, but that isn’t to say nothing is on the line in this matchup. Seeding is still important, as is a Big Ten title, and as we wrote about earlier this week, the Heisman Trophy could also be up for grabs.

No. 2 Indiana (12-0) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (12-0)
8pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: Indiana (+4.5, -115), Ohio State (-4.5, -105)

  • 75% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Buckeyes

  • ATS | IU: 7-5, OSU: 10-2

• Moneyline: Indiana +156, Ohio State -186

• Total (46.5): Over -114, Under -106

  • IU: 8-4, Ohio State 4-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Ohio State QB Julian Sayin | Passing Yards: 229.5 (233, 157, 184), Pass TD: 1.5 (3, 2, 1)

• Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza | Passing Yards: 206.5 (117, 299, 218), Pass TD: 1.5 (0, 5, 3), Rushing Yards: 19.5 (27, -24, 20)

• Ohio State WR Carnell Tate | Receiving Yards: 67.5 (82, 124, 111), Receptions: 4.5 (5, 5, 6), Anytime TD: -105 (1, 1, 2)

• Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr. | Receiving Yards: 54.5 (64, 39, 32), Receptions: 4.5 (3, 3, 6), Anytime TD: +135 (00)

• Ohio State RB Bo Jackson | Rushing Yards: 72.5 (117, 110, 112), Anytime TD: +120 (0, 2, 1)

• Indiana RB Roman Hemby | Rushing Yards: 53.5 (152, 58, 55), Anytime TD: +135 (1, 0, 0)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Bettors are Behind Texas Tech Even With Huge Spread in Big 12 Championship Game

CFB

• No. 11 BYU (11-1) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1)

  • BYU (+12.5, -114), Texas Tech (-12.5, -106): 66% of the money and 57% of the bets are with the Red Raiders

    • ATS | BYU: 9-3, TTU: 11-1

  • Total (49.6) | BYU: 6-6, TTU: 5-7

  • TTU QB Behren Morton - Passing Yards: 248.5 (310, 149, 219), Passing TD: 1.5 (3, 1, 1)

  • BYU RB LJ Martin - Rushing Yards: 73.5 (95, 222, 88), Anytime TD: +115 (3, 2, 1)

• No. 3 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 9 Alabama (10-2)

  • Georgia (-2,5, -105), Alabama (+2.5, -115): 71% of the money and 67% of the bets are with the Bulldogs

    • ATS | UGA: 5-7, ALA: 8-4

  • Total (48.5) | UGA: 4-8, ALA: 4-8

  • ALA QB Ty Simpson - Passing Yards: 250.5 (122, 147, 326), Passing TD: 1.5 (3, 0, 1), Rushing Yards: 11.5 (31, 17, -9)

  • UGA RB Nate Frazier - Rushing Yards: 60.5 (108, 54, 72)

• Duke (7-5) vs. No. 17 Virginia (10-2)

  • Duke (+3.5, -102), Virginia (-3.5, -120): 78% of the money and the bets are with the Cavaliers

    • ATS | Duke: 6-6, UVA: 8-4

  • Total (57.5) | Duke: 9-3, UVA: 5-7

  • Duke QB Darian Mensah - Passing Yards: 257.5 (268, 175, 213), Passing TD: 1.5 (2, 1, 1)

  • UVA QB Chandler Morris - Passing Yards: 251.5 (183, 316, 262), Passing TD: 1.5 (0, 2, 0)

NBA

• Pelicans (+3.5, -110) vs. Nets (-3.5, -110): 68% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Brooklyn

  • ATS | NO (road): 5-5, BKN (home): 5-6

  • Total (227.5) | NO: 14-9, BKN: 9-13

• Hawks (-9, -114) vs. Wizards (+9, -106): 67% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Atlanta

  • ATS | ATL (road): 8-6, WAS (home): 7-2

  • Total (235.5) | ATL: 13-11, WAS: 13-8

• Kings (+8, -106) vs. Heat (-8, -114): 71% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Miami

  • ATS | SAC (road): 6-6, MIA (home): 6-6

  • Total (238.5) | SAC: 10-12, MIA: 12-11

• Clippers (+10.5, -112) vs. Timberwolves (-10.5, -108): 59% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • ATS | LAC (road): 7-6, MIN (home): 5-5

  • Total (227.5) | LAC: 12-11, MIN: 12-10

MCBB

• No. 10 Iowa State (+5.5, -102) vs. No. 1 Purdue (-5.5, -120): 80% of the money and 73% of the bets are with the Boilermakers

  • ATS | ISU: 6-2, PU: 4-4

  • Total (153.5) | ISU: 6-2, PU: 3-5

• No. 6 Louisville (-4.5, -102) vs. No. 22 Indiana (+4.5, -120): 64% of the money and bets are with the Cardinals

  • ATS | UL: 5-3, IU: 5-3

  • Total (161.5) | UL: 4-4, IU: 4-4

• No. 20 Auburn (+8.5, -102) vs. No. 2 Arizona (-8.5, -120): 71% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Wildcats

  • ATS | AUB: 7-2, ARI: 4-3

  • Total (154.5) | AUB: 7-2, ARI: 3-4

5. Overtime

Quotable

“I sat in those meetings with longtime owners who were brow-beaten for so many years trying to make change. I was a new person, I wasn't afraid. I felt I could challenge NASCAR as a whole. I felt as far as the sport, it needed to be looked at from a different view.” — NBA legend Michael Jordan testifying in court in his capacity as co-owner of the NASCAR team 23XI. As ESPN reported, “When NASCAR … gave the teams six hours in September 2024 to sign the 112-page extension, 23XI and Front Row Motorsports were the only two organizations out of 15 to refuse. They instead filed the antitrust suit, and the trial opened Monday to hear their allegations that NASCAR is a monopolistic bully.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 9am: Tottenham vs. Brentford on USA

• 12pm: No. 11 BYU vs. No. 4 Texas Tech for the Big 12 Championship on ABC (or No. 4 Duke vs. No. 4 Michigan State [MCBB] on FOX or No. 10 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Purdue [MCBB] on CBS)

• 2:15pm: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 22 Indiana [MCBB] on CBS

• 4pm: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama for the SEC Championship on ABC

• 7pm: Golden Knights vs. Devils on NHL Network

• 7:30pm: Warriors vs. Cavaliers on NBA TV

• 8pm: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship on FOX (or Duke vs. No. 17 Virginia for the ACC Championship on ABC)

• 10pm: No. 20 Auburn vs. No. 2 Arizona [MCBB] on ESPN