Insights for MNF, NBA Analysis + College Football Coaching Carousel Spins

We also look at where early bettors have money in the college football conference championship games

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Actually there is no Super Bowl favorite

2. The Rundown: The college coaching carousel spun wildly yesterday

3. Game of the Day: Patriots give up 9 points less per game than Giants

4. By the Numbers: Early CFB conference championship matchups

5. Overtime: Formula 1 is coming down to the final race

1. Leading Off

Both of last season’s Super Bowl participants lost before Sunday, then the newly anointed heavy favorite to win the big game fell yesterday to a two-score underdog. The Eagles, Chiefs, Rams and Colts all lost games they were expected to win in Week 13, while the Bills and Packers showed the football world they might have given up on them too early. With all the chaos, injuries and parity this season, we shouldn’t consider anyone a favorite to win Super Bowl LX anymore.

Even after their loss to the plucky Panthers, sportsbooks still have the Rams as a pretty big favorite to win (+470), with the Seahawks (+900), Packers and Eagles (+950), Bills (+1000), and 10-2 Broncos (+1200) following. The NFL’s other 10-2 team, the Patriots, are next at +1300 and play the Giants tonight with rookie Jaxson Dart back under center. The 9-3 Bears, who just convincingly beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, aren’t even the favorite to win their division (+145, behind the Packers at -130), and are tied for the 14th-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +2700.

Six of the 14 matchups next week feature teams with .500 records or better facing off, and a game not included in that group, the 4-8 Bengals vs. the Bills, is starting with a spread of less than a touchdown because quarterback Joe Burrow is back and just led Cincinnati to an upset in Baltimore. With a slate like that, in normal years we’d know a lot more next week at this time than we do now. But we won’t. There isn’t going to be a Super Bowl favorite this year. There could end up being 10 teams that could win it all. Buckle up.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

With Kiffin’s Move to LSU Finalized, College Football Coaching Carousel Spun Quickly

• The college football coaching carousel spun so fast it gets its own section:

  • Lane Kiffin finally officially took the LSU job and won’t be allowed to keep coaching Ole Miss in a likely playoff appearance.

  • In other SEC news, Florida hired Tulane’s Jon Sumrall, their top target after they were spurned by Kiffin; Ole Miss replaced Kiffin with his defensive coordinator Pete Golding; Arkansas went with Memphis’s Ryan Silverfield; Auburn took Alex Golesh from USF; and Kentucky is expected to fire Mark Stoops, according to ESPN.

  • Michigan State unexpectedly fired coach Jonathan Smith after just two seasons and is finalizing a deal to hire former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, according to CBS Sports.

• In other college football news, Texas A&M dropped four spots to 7th in the AP Top 25 after falling to Texas, which only moved up two to 14th. Texas Tech is up to 5th and could end up with a playoff bye with a win in the Big 12 championship by passing No. 4 Oregon or if the CFP committee decides to punish No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana or No. 3 Georgia for losing a conference title game.

• Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert needs surgery on his non-throwing hand and might not be ready in time for the Monday Night Football matchup against the Eagles next week. Both teams are 8-4. “I’m treating it as if I’m playing Monday,” Herbert said.

• Before yesterday, only the Ravens and Steelers had scored in more consecutive games than the Vikings’ 294. But then Seattle beat Minnesota 26-0, handing the Vikings their first shutout since 2007. The offensive stats were obviously bleak: Minnesota had just 66 rushing yards and 11 first downs (2 from penalties), while committing five turnovers (four interceptions from rookie quarterback Max Brosmer).

3. Game of the Day

Patriots Look to Keep NFL’s Best Record With MNF Tilt Against Returning Dart, Giants

Week 13 has been cursed for many of the NFL’s top teams and electric rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart is back under center for the Giants, so this game could be more exciting than it looks on paper. Few people outside of New England believe in this version of the Patriots, so a blowout on national television would go a long way toward not just winning the AFC East for the first time since the 2019 season, but also in earning the respect they should probably already have. The Giants have shown more signs of life than most 2-10 teams generally do and have real talent, which is another reason why the spread is closer than you’d expect with these records.

Giants (2-10, 0-7 Away) vs. Patriots (10-2, 4-2 Home)
8:15pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: Giants (+7.5, -120), Patriots (-7.5, -102)

  • 58% of the money is with New England but 52% of the bets are with New York

  • ATS — NYG (road): 4-3, NE (home): 2-3-1

• Moneyline: Patriots -370, Giants +295

• Total (46.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • NYG: 7-5, NE: 6-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Patriots QB Drake Maye — Passing Yards: 244.5 (294, 281, 270), Rush Yards: 22.5 (22, 2, 13)

• Giants QB Jaxson Dart — Passing Yards: 205.5 (292, 191, 193), Rush Yards: 29.5 (66, 56, 17)

• Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson — Rush Yards: 63.5 (66, 62, 147), Rush Attempts: 15.5 (18, 19, 14), Anytime TD: -120 (0, 3, 2)

• Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson — Receiving Yards: 59.5 (156, 36, 62), Receptions: 5.5 (9, 4, 6), Anytime TD: +220 (1, 0, 0)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

An Early Look at Who Bettors are Backing in CFB Conference Championship Matchups

NBA

• Bucks (-9, -112) vs. Wizards (+9, -108): 65% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Milwaukee. ATS — MIL: 9-12, WAS: 5-12-1

  • Myles Turner — Points: 12.5 (10, 10, 24), Reb: 6.5 (3, 3, 8), Ast: 1.5 (2, 1, 2)

  • CJ McCollum — Points: 18.5 (11, 46, 18), Reb: 3.5 (1, 5, 2), Ast: 3.5 (2, 4, 3)

• Cavaliers (-6.5, -112) vs. Pacers (+6.5, -108): 76% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Cleveland. ATS — CLE: 6-14, IND: 11-9

  • Donovan Mitchell — Points: 28.5 (18, 42, 17), Reb: 4.5 (7, 3, 1), Ast: 5.5 (8, 3, 8)

  • Pascal Siakam — Points: 24.5 (24, 24, 11), Reb: 7.5 (9, 11, 4), Ast: 3.5 (4, 1, 2)

• Hawks (+9.5, -114) vs. Pistons (-9.5, -106): 54% of the money is with Detroit but 56% of the bets are with Atlanta. ATS — ATL: 10-10, DET: 13-7

  • Jalen Johnson — Points: 22.5 (41, 29, 7), Reb: 8.5 (14, 12, 7), Ast: 7.5 (7, 12, 7)

  • Cade Cunningham — Points: 28.5 (29, 39, 42), Reb: 6.5 (4, 13, 8), Ast: 9.5 (8, 11, 5)

• Clippers (+6, -110) vs. Heat (-6, -110): 53% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Los Angeles. ATS — LAC: 5-15, MIA: 12-7-1

  • James Harden — Points: 26.5 (29, 23, 29), Reb: 5.5 (8, 7, 5), Ast: 9.5 (11, 11, 9)

  • Tyler Herro — Points: 22.5 (24, 29, 24), Reb: 4.5 (4, 5, 7)

• Bulls (+8.5, -110) vs. Magic (-8.5, -110): 62% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Chicago. ATS — CHI: 8-10-1, ORL: 11-9

  • Josh Giddey — Points: 19.5 (17, 25, 21), Reb: 8.5 (11, 11, 7), Ast: 7.5 (7, 9, 6)

  • Franz Wagner — Points: 24.5 (21, 21, 15), Reb: 6.5 (7, 5, 8), Ast: 4.5 (1, 3, 5)

• Hornets (-4.5, -110) vs. Nets (+4.5, -110): 68% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Charlotte. ATS — CHA: 10-10, BKN: 7-11-1

  • LaMelo Ball — Points: 19.5 (14, 16, 11), Reb: 5.5 (2, 7, 6), Ast: 7.5 (5, 8, 4)

  • Michael Porter Jr. (P) — Points: 23.5 (16, 25, 33), Reb: 6.5 (4, 6, 8), Ast: 2.5 (0, 4, 2)

• Mavericks (+11, -106) vs. Nuggets (-11, -114): 64% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Denver. ATS — DAL: 9-12, DEN: 12-7

  • Cooper Flagg — Points: 16.5 (35, 13, 12), Reb: 5.5 (8, 7, 7), Ast: 3.5 (2, 11, 3)

  • Jamal Murray — Points: 23.5 (24, 37, 29), Ast: 6.5 (4, 7, 8)

CFB (Saturday)

• Big 12 Championship — No. 11 BYU (+13.5, -114) vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (-13.5, -106): 66% of the money and 55% of the bets are with the Red Raiders

• SEC Championship — No. 4 Georgia (-2.5, -118) vs. No. 10 Alabama (+2.5, -104): 74% of the money and 73% of the bets are with the Bulldogs

• ACC Championship — Duke (+2.5, +100) vs. No. 18 Virginia (-2.5, -122): 88% of the money and 84% of the bets are with the Cavaliers

• Big Ten Championship — No. 1 Ohio State (-5.5, -115) vs. No. 2 Indiana (+5.5, -105): 82% of the money and 70% of the bets are with the Buckeyes

5. Overtime

Quotable

“We clearly made a huge mistake. I think Oscar (Piastri) was absolutely impeccable all weekend. We gave his win away. I think it's the reality. There's no other way to look at it. And we gave Lando (Norris's) podium away. Very frustrating. … We clearly made the wrong call. Nothing we can do about it now other than learn from it. This is two weekends in a row with some big learnings.” — McLaren CEO Zak Brown after his Formula 1 team decided not to pit either driver during an early yellow flag, a decision that handed the Qatar Grand Prix to rival Max Verstappen and gives the four-time champion a chance to steal the title away from Norris in the final race of the season next week.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 6:30pm: Temple vs. Villanova [MCBB] on FS1

• 7pm: Penguins vs. Flyers on NHL Network

• 7:30pm: Bulls vs. Magic on Peacock

• 8:15pm: Giants vs. Patriots on ESPN

• 10pm: Suns vs. Lakers on Peacock