Today’s Top 10 Bets to Watch Across College Football, NBA and NHL Action

We also look at the biggest NBA Cup matchups of the night

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Nobody wants to take control of the AFC

2. Bets to Watch: CFB, NBA and NHL insights

3. Game of the Day: A must-win NBA Cup matchup

4. By the Numbers: 65% of the spread money is with the Bulls at home

5. Overtime: NFL coaches on why the Chiefs have unexpectedly backtracked

1. Leading Off

If you needed any more evidence that parity is the story of this NFL season, last night’s Texans win over the Bills should do the trick. Buffalo was a 5.5-point road favorite and had reasserted itself as a Super Bowl contender after some fits and starts this year. Prior to the game the Bills were +800, just behind the Eagles at +500 and the Rams at +600.

Then Houston gave up just three points in the second half to the formerly high-flying Buffalo offense to get the 23-19 win and put the Texans right in the middle of the playoff race at 6-5 after an 0-3 start. Houston earned the upset with a backup quarterback.

After the loss, the Bills free-fell to +1200 to win the Super Bowl, tied with the Seahawks for sixth and behind the 5-5 Chiefs. The Rams and Eagles are now co-favorites to win the championship, with a significant odds gap between them and the next two teams, the Colts and Lions. Philadelphia is at Dallas this weekend and is favored by just 3.5 points over the 4-5-1 Cowboys, while the Rams have a Sunday Night Football showdown at home against the Buccaneers and are favored by a touchdown.

— Abe Rakov

Unlock the Social Media Tactics That Work Right Now

Is your social strategy ready for what's next in 2025?

HubSpot Media's latest Social Playbook reveals what's actually working for over 1,000 global marketing leaders across TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Facebook, and YouTube.

Inside this comprehensive report, you’ll discover:

• Which platforms are delivering the highest ROI in 2025

• Content formats driving the most engagement across industries

• How AI is transforming social content creation and analytics

• Tactical recommendations you can implement immediately

Unlock the playbook—free when you subscribe to the Masters in Marketing newsletter.

Get cutting-edge insights, twice a week, from the marketing leaders shaping the future.

Download The Report

2. Bets to Watch

Florida State QB Rebounded After Slow Start, Going Over Passing Yards Total in 6 of 7

By Todd Cordell

Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos over 235.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Castellanos went under this number in two of his first three games with the Seminoles. He has since responded by clearing in…

3. Game of the Day

With 3 Straight Triple-Doubles, Jokic is Ahead of Last Season’s Rebound and Assist Averages

Denver and Houston face off in a must-win NBA Cup game if either team wants to feel comfortable about advancing out of the group stage. Both are 1-1, where every team in the West’s Group C currently sits. Just a half-game separates the two teams in the overall standings, and the Nuggets have a 0.1-point better point differential. All that is to say, this should be a good one.

Nuggets (11-3, 5-2 Away) vs. Rockets (10-3, 5-1 Home)
8:30pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: Nuggets (+2, -108), Rockets (-2, -112)

  • 51% of the money is with Houston but 52% of the bets are with Denver

  • DEN: 9-5, HOU: 9-4

• Moneyline: Nuggets +112, Rockets -132

• Total (234.5): Over -114, Under -106

  • DEN: 8-6, HOU: 10-3

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Nuggets C Nikola Jokic: 29.1 points (64.1% FG), 13.2 rebounds, 11.1 assists, 0.8 blocks, 1.6 steals, 3.6 turnovers

• Rockets F Kevin Durant: 25.5 points (49.6% FG), 4.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.6 blocks, 0.9 steals, 3.1 turnovers

• Rockets C Alperen Sengun: 23.4 points (48.9% FG), 10.4 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.0 block, 1.2 steals, 3.5 turnovers

• Nuggets G Jamal Murray: 22.5 points (46.1% FG), 5.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 0.2 blocks, 1.2 steals, 2.4 turnovers

• Nuggets F Aaron Gordon (Prob): 20.3 points (53.6% FG), 6.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.8 steals, 1.4 turnovers

• Rockets G Amen Thompson: 16.8 points (46.7% FG), 6.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 0.5 blocks, 1.5 steals, 2.2 turnovers

4. By the Numbers

Five NBA Cup Matchups Where 60%+ of Spread Money is With a Team

NBA

• Wizards (+14.5, -114) vs. Raptors (-14.5, -106): 61% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Toronto

  • WAS: 3-10-1, TOR: 8-6-1

  • Total (240.5) — WAS: 9-5, TOR: 7-8

• Heat (+2, -108) vs. Bulls (-2, -112): 65% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Chicago

  • MIA: 10-4-1, CHI: 8-5-1

  • Total (250) — MIA: 9-6, CHI: 9-5

• Pelicans (+3.5, -108) vs. Mavericks (-3.5, -112): 65% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Dallas

  • NOP: 7-7-1, DAL: 7-9-0

  • Total (233.5) — NOP: 9-6, DAL: 6-10

• Timberwolves (-3.5, -110) vs. Suns (+3.5, -110): 60% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Minnesota)

  • MIN: 6-9-0, PHX: 9-4-2

  • Total (234.5) — MIN: 8-7, PHX: 8-7

• Trail Blazers (+7.5, -106) vs. Warriors (-7.5, -114): 69% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Golden State

  • POR: 7-8-0, GSW: 8-8-1

  • Total (237.5): POR: 11-4, GSW: 10-7

CFB

• Florida State (5-5, 2-5 ACC) vs. NC State (5-5, 2-4 ACC)

  • Spread — Florida State (-6.5, -110), NC State (+6.5, -110): 62% of the money and 56% of the bets are with FSU

    • FSU: 5-5, NC State: 4-6

  • Moneyline — Florida State -225, NC State +188

  • Total (59.5) — Over -112, Under -108

    • FSU: 5-5, NC State: 6-4

• Hawai'i (7-3, 4-2 Mountain West) vs. UNLV (8-2, 4-2 Mountain West)

  • Spread — Hawai’i (+2.5, -102), UNLV (-2.5, -120)

    • HAW: 7-3, UNLV: 5-5

  • Moneyline — Hawai’i +122, UNLV -144

  • Total (64.5) — Over -105, Under -115

    • HAW: 4-6, UNLV: 5-5

5. Overtime

In the News 

• CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones talked to NFL coaches and executives to figure out what is going wrong with the 5-5 Chiefs. The former Super Bowl favorites are 3.5 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, though just one game out of a Wild Card spot.

• After the fall of Penn State, the Big Ten’s schedule hasn’t been what it was expected to be this season and the SEC has dominated. That could change as Ohio State and Indiana head for a collision course, with the Buckeyes trying to end their losing streak against Michigan in between.

• The NBA is off to a hot start viewership-wise, Tim Reynolds at the Associated Press reports, as “National NBA games being shown on NBC/Peacock, Amazon Prime Video or ESPN have drawn more than 60 million viewers through the first month of the regular season … the highest opening total in 15 years.”

• Back-to-back American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is in the final year of his contract with the Tigers, and ESPN reports he could exceed Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record $325 million contract. Would the Tigers trade their ace if they know they can’t afford to re-sign him?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 4pm: No. 23 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 BYU [NCAAM] on Peacock

• 6pm: No. 11 USC vs. No. 24 Notre Dame [NCAAW] on ESPN

• 6:30pm: No. 6 Louisville vs. Cincinnati [NCAAM] on ESPN2

• 7pm: Pacers vs. Cavaliers on Prime Video (or Wild vs. Penguins on NHL Network)

• 8pm: Florida State vs. NC State [CFB] on ESPN (or No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 1 UConn [NCAAW] on FOX)

• 9:30pm: Nuggets vs. Rockets on Prime Video

• 10:30pm: Hawai’i vs. UNLV [CFB] on FS1