Insights on 20 NFL Bets Across the Week 11 Slate

We also look at where bettors have their NFL money today

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Week 11 in the NFL headlined by contender vs. pretender matchups

2. Bets to Watch: Insights on 20 NFL bets across today’s slate

3. Game of the Day: Spotlight shines on NFC West

4. By the Numbers: Spread Bettors are backing some NFL road favorites

5. Overtime: Virginia Tech is trying to jump the line for the coaching carousel

1. Leading Off

Four matchups in the NFL’s Week 11 will help determine who is a Super Bowl contender and who isn’t there yet. We’re starting today with a look at each of those games (we have more on our game of the week, Seahawks vs. Rams, later in the newsletter):

• Buccaneers (6-3, 4-1 Away) vs. Bills (6-3, 4-1 Home) at 1pm on CBS: Buffalo just doesn’t look as good as anticipated this year and has two bad losses. The Bucs haven’t played a bad game on the season, but pundits believe they have a low ceiling.

• Seahawks (7-2, 4-0 Away) vs. Rams (7-2, 3-1 Home) at 4:05pm on FOX: The Rams have climbed all the way up to third in Super Bowl odds after four straight wins. Quarterback Sam Darnold has reinvigorated the Seahawks but they’ve lost to the two best teams they’ve played.

• Chiefs (5-4, 1-3 Away) vs. Broncos (8-2, 5-0 Home) at 4:25pm on CBS: Despite their mediocre record, the Chiefs are still the favorite (or co-favorite with the Eagles) at most sportsbooks. And even though the Broncos are 8-2, they are +1800 to win the championship with nine teams ahead of them.

• Lions (6-3, 3-2 Away) vs. Eagles (7-2, 3-1 Home) at 8:20pm on NBC: Philadelphia has shaken off its two-game losing streak, but any loss makes Eagles fans worry about their repeat chances. Detroit has been up-and-down this season but still has the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+850).

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Giants Allowed 417 Yards to Starting Running Backs Over Past 4 Games

By Chris Farley

Packers RB Josh Jacobs over 81.5 rushing yards (-111 at DraftKings)
The Packers' offense has left much to be desired, but they'll get a gift today. Although every team opposing the Giants must fear their defensive line, it just hasn't…

3. Game of the Day

Seahawks and Rams, Both 7-2 ATS, Face Off for NFC West Supremacy

The Seahawks and Rams have each won four straight games but only a couple of them were against potential playoff teams. This spotlight matchup will show where these two teams are as potential Super Bowl contenders.

Seahawks (7-2, 4-0 Away) vs. Rams (7-2, 3-1 Home)
4:05pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: Seahawks (+3, -102), Rams (-3, -120)

  • 55% of the money is with the Rams but 53% of the bets are with the Seahawks

  • SEA: 7-2, LAR: 7-2

• Moneyline: Seahawks +152, Rams -180

• Total (48.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • 60% of the money and 73% of the bets are on the over

    • SEA: 6-3, Rams 4-5

Players to Watch

• Seahawks QB Sam Darnold: 162-228 (71.7%), 2,262 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT, 116.5 rating

• Rams QB Matthew Stafford: 208-310 (67.1%), 2,472 yards, 25 TD, 2 INT, 114.8 rating

• Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 63 receptions (85 targets), 1,041 yards (16.5 average), 5 TD, 45 first downs, 2 fumbles (1 lost)

• Rams RB Kyren Williams: 146 carries, 659 yards, 5 TD, 22 receptions, 177 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs, 2 fumbles (2 lost)

• Seahawks LB Ernest Jones IV: 65 tackles (31 solo), 0.5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 5 pass deflections, 5 stuffs

• Rams LB Byron Young: 45 tackles (28 solo), 9 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 4.5 stuffs

Props (totals all over/under -114 at FanDuel)

• Stafford passing yards: 268.5

• Darnold passing yards: 254.5

• Williams (Rams) rushing yards: 56.5

• Walker III rushing yards: 43.5

• Smith-Njigba receiving yards: 95.5

• Nacua receiving yards: 87.5

• Byron Young to record a sack: -130

4. By the Numbers

Spread Bettors are Backing 3 NFL Road Favorites, Conflicted on This Week’s Totals

NFL

• Bears (+2.5, -105) vs. Vikings (-2.5, -115): 67% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • CHI: 6-3, MIN: 4-5

• Packers vs. Giants Total (43.5) — Over -104, Under -118: 57% of the money is on the under but 60% of the bets are on the over

  • GB: 4-5, NYG: 5-5

• Panthers (+3.5, -105) vs. Falcons (-3.5, -115): 55% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Atlanta

  • CAR: 6-4, ATL: 4-5

• Chargers vs. Jaguars Total (43.5) — Over-115, Under -105: 61% of the money is on the under but 74% of the bets are on the over

  • LAC: 5-5, JAX: 5-4

• Texans (-5.5, -115) vs. Titans (+5.5, -105): 76% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Houston

  • HOU: 4-5, TEN: 3-6

• Chiefs (-3.5, -120) vs. Broncos (+3.5, -102): 73% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Kansas City

  • KC: 5-4, DEN: 4-6

• Ravens (-7.5, -110) vs. Browns (+7.5, -110): 77% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Baltimore

  • BAL: 5-4, CLE: 3-6

NBA

• Kings (+7.5, -108) vs. Spurs (-7.5, -112): 83% of the money and 73% of the bets are with San Antonio

  • SAC: 4-8-1, SA: 4-6-2

• Magic (+8.5, -110) vs. Rockets (-8.5, -110): 71% of the money and 53% of the Bets are with Houston

  • ORL: 5-8, HOU: 8-3

• Warriors (-11, -110) vs. Pelicans (+11, -110): 82% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Golden State

  • GSW: 7-6-1, NO: 5-6-1

• Bulls (-4.5, -110) vs. Jazz (+4.5, -110): 67% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Chicago

  • CHI: 7-3-1, UTA: 7-5-0

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Oklahoma created the first chaos in the College Football Playoff by handing Alabama its first conference loss in a 23-21 upset. The SEC championship game is now up for grabs with Texas A&M the only undefeated team in conference and Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama fighting for the second spot.

• Virginia Tech is trying to lock in former Penn State coach James Franklin before the college football coaching carousel really gets going, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports. Franklin was 104-45 before being fired earlier this season, while Virginia Tech is still trying to adequately replace legendary coach Frank Beamer, who retired in 2015.

• The Pelicans fired head coach Willie Green after a 2-10 start. Green was in his fifth season in New Orleans and compiled a 150-190 record with two playoff appearances. According to ESPN, the Pelicans were “the first team in NBA history to lose three of their first six games by at least 30 points.” Former Charlotte head coach James Borrego was named the interim head coach.

• According to CBS Sports, the Phillies aren’t likely to re-sign pitcher Ranger Suarez. “It's not our highest priority,” Philadelphia executive Dave Dombrowski said. “You always need to look for starting pitching depth. That doesn't necessarily mean top of the market.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 9am: Predators vs. Penguins from Stockholm on NHL Network

• 9:30am: Commanders vs. Dolphins on NFL Network

• 1pm: Buccaneers vs. Bills on CBS (or Bears vs. Vikings on FOX)

• 3pm: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 22 Auburn [NCAAM] on ESPN

• 4:05pm: Seahawks vs. Rams on FOX (or Chiefs vs. Broncos on CBS)

• 7pm: Red Wings vs. Rangers on NHL Network

• 8:20pm: Lions vs. Eagles on NBC

• 8:30pm: Miami vs. No. 10 Florida [NCAAM] on ESPN