NFL Week 10 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings
The NFC West is a logjam, with the Cardinals atop the division at 5-4, Rams and 49ers at 4-4, and Seahawks at 4-5. But the only division without a team under .500 is the NFC North: The Lions are 7-1, Vikings are 6-2, Packers are 6-3 and Bears are 4-4. All but the Bears would make the playoffs if they started today.
The Packers, Seahawks, Browns and Raiders have Week 10 byes. Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Bengals (4-5, 3-1 Away) vs. Ravens (6-3, 3-1 Home)
Thursday, 8:15pm on Prime
Category | Bengals | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.2 (6th) | 31.4 (2nd) |
Point Differential | +9 (15th) | +64 (5th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-4 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 11.0 (15th) | 13.2 (9th) |
Turnover Differential | +1 (15th) | +3 (10th) |
Total Penalties | 41 (1st) | 69 (29th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Bengals have recorded the 3rd-highest tackle efficiency this season (89.1%) and have allowed the 5th-fewest yards from missed tackles (345).
Lamar Jackson did not record a single designed run in the Ravens Week 9 victory over the Broncos, the first time this season and just the fourth such game in Jackson’s career. Jackson leads all quarterbacks in both designed runs (48) and rushing yards on designed runs (257) this season.
Joe Burrow has thrown for 1,742 yards against four or fewer rushers this season (3rd-most) and has thrown 14 such touchdowns, tied for the 2nd-most in the league. Burrow has generated +32.1 EPA when not blitzed this season, 7th-most in the NFL.
Giants (2-7, 2-2 Away) vs. Panthers (2-7, 1-3 Home)
Sunday, 9:30am on NFL Network
Category | Giants | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 15.4 (32nd) | 16.3 (29th) |
Point Differential | -63 (26th) | -146 (32nd) |
Record in Close Games | 1-4 | 1-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.5 (22nd) | 7.5 (22nd) |
Turnover Differential | -4 (24th) | -7 (27th) |
Total Penalties | 51 (8th) | 62 (24th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Giants
QB Daniel Jones: 234.9 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 65.7 rush yards, 16.4 receiving yards
WR Malik Nabers: 6.4 receptions, 72.0 receiving yards
Panthers
RB Chuba Hubbard: 53.1 rush yards, 14.4 receiving yards
WR Xavier Legette: 3.3 receptions, 42.5 receiving yards
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders: 2.6 receptions, 29.0 receiving yards
Patriots (2-7, 1-4 Away) vs. Bears (4-4, 4-0 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 15.7 (30th) | 21.5 (19th) |
Point Differential | -76 (30th) | +24 (12th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 4.5 (29th) | 14.5 (7th) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (21st) | +7 (5th) |
Total Penalties | 57 (18th) | 51 (8th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Patriots
QB Drake Maye: 178.1 pass yards, 1.0 pass TD
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 48.0 rush yards, 17.7 receiving yards
WR Demario Douglas: 4.0 receptions, 44.1 receiving yards
Bears
QB Caleb Williams: 229.9 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB D’Andre Swift: 59.7 rush yards, 16.8 receiving yards
WR DJ More: 3.9 receptions, 52.1 receiving yards
Bills (7-2, 3-2 Away) vs. Colts (4-5, 3-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Bills | Colts |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.9 (4th) | 20.9 (22nd) |
Point Differential | +87 (2nd) | -5 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-1 | 4-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 16.4 (2nd) | 4.2 (30th) |
Turnover Differential | +11 (1st) | +2 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 57 (18th) | 50 (7th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Bills
QB Josh Allen: 256.9 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB 68.3 rush yards, 15.5 receiving yards
WR Amari Cooper: 4.5 receptions, 62.1 receiving yards
Colts
RB: Jonathan Taylor: 78.8 rush yards, 14.8 receiving yards
WR Michael Pittman: 4.3 receptions, 50.2 receiving yards
WR Josh Downs: 3.9 receptions, 44.0 receiving yards
Vikings (6-2, 2-1 Away) vs. Jaguars (2-7, 2-2 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Vikings | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.1 (8th) | 21.7 (18th) |
Point Differential | +59 (6th) | -57 (25th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-1 | 1-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 11.8 (14th) | 9.5 (19th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (8th) | -7 (27th) |
Total Penalties | 57 (18th) | 52 (14th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Vikings blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL at 41.3% (Broncos, 43.1%), as well as the 2nd-highest rate on early downs (47.0%).
Justin Jefferson is top 5 among receivers in receiving yards (1st, 783), receiving yards over expected (4th, +167), and receiving EPA (2nd, +38.3). Jefferson also leads the league in target share (33.0%), the highest mark of his career.
Tank Bigsby has accumulated +153 rushing yards over expected, the 6th-most among running backs and the 2nd-most in a season for a Jaguars running back since at least 2018 (Travis Etienne, 2022: +234).
Broncos (5-4, 3-2 Away) vs. Chiefs (8-0, 4-0 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.3 (23rd) | 25.4 (10th) |
Point Differential | +22 (13th) | +56 (8th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-3 | 6-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.6 (6th) | 7.0 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (16th) | -4 (24th) |
Total Penalties | 63 (26th) | 42 (3rd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Broncos
QB Bo Nix: 193.3 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Javonte Williams: 42.5 rush yards, 19.6 receiving yards
WR Courtland Sutton: 4.0 receptions, 52.7 receiving yards
Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes: 215.1 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Kareem Hunt: 61.1 rush yards, 6.4 receiving yards
TE Travis Kelce: 5.2 receptions, 54.9 receiving yards
Falcons (6-3, 3-0 Away) vs. Saints (2-7, 1-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Falcons | Saints |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 24.6 (12th) | 23.0 (15th) |
Point Differential | +5 (16th) | -22 (22nd) |
Record in Close Games | 5-2 | 0-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.3 (25th) | 31.0 (1st) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (16th) | +3 (10th) |
Total Penalties | 53 (12th) | 58 (21st) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Falcons
QB Kirk Cousins: 241.3 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Bijan Robinson: 73.1 rush yards, 27.4 receiving yards
WR Drake London: 5.8 receptions, 76.0 receiving yards
Saints
QB Derek Carr: 215.4 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Alvin Kamara: 69.6 rush yards, 28.5 receiving yards
WR Chris Olave: 5.2 receptions, 68.8 receiving yards
49ers (4-4, 1-2 Away) vs. Buccaneers (4-5, 2-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | 49ers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.2 (6th) | 28.8 (5th) |
Point Differential | +28 (11th) | +16 (14th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.0 (12th) | 15.5 (4th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (8th) | -1 (16th) |
Total Penalties | 45 (6th) | 56 (17th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
49ers
QB Brock Purdy: 254.2 pass yards, 1.9 pass TD
WR Deebo Samuel Sr.: 4.0 receptions, 56.4 receiving yards
TE George Kittle: 4.6 receptions, 60.7 receiving yards
Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield: 242.3 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB Rachaad White: 35.2 rush yards, 20.9 receiving yards
TE Cade Otton: 4.0 receptions, 39.8 receiving yards
Steelers (6-2, 3-1 Away) vs. Commanders (7-2, 4-0 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Steelers | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.4 (13th) | 29.2 (3rd) |
Point Differential | +68 (4th) | +74 (3rd) |
Record in Close Games | 3-2 | 4-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.3 (11th) | 14.0 (8th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (3rd) | +5 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 52 (11th) | 54 (14th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Steelers
QB Russell Wilson: 196.4 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB Najee Harris: 51.9 rush yards, 11.9 receiving yards
WR George Pickens: 4.4 receptions, 66.3 receiving yards
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels: 205.7 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Brian Robinson: 58.9 rush yards, 13.8 receiving yards
WR Terry McLaurin: 5.3 receptions, 67.9 receiving yards
Titans (2-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Chargers (5-3, 2-1 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on FOX
Category | Titans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.5 (27th) | 19.9 (24th) |
Point Differential | -73 (29th) | +58 (7th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 11.0 (15th) | 15.4 (5th) |
Turnover Differential | -11 (31st) | +9 (4th) |
Total Penalties | 60 (23rd) | 43 (4th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Justin Herbert has recorded a league-high 709 passing yards on downfield (10+ air yards) attempts since the Chargers Week 5 bye, compared to just 145 total passing yards on such attempts prior to the bye.
The Chargers defense has used zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate (83.3%) in the NFL this season, including the highest Cover 4 rate (29.5%). Mason Rudolph has faced zone coverage at the 3rd-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks (61.2%), with all 4 of his passing touchdowns this season coming against man coverage.
Tony Pollard has recorded 379 yards after contact on designed rushes outside the tackle box this season, most among running backs. Pollard has also averaged 4.4 yards per carry on such attempts.
Jets (3-6, 1-4 Away) vs. Cardinals (5-4, 3-2 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Jets | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.0 (25th) | 23.0 (15th) |
Point Differential | -12 (21st) | -7 (19th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-4 | 3-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.0 (12th) | 11.0 (15th) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (21st) | -1 (16th) |
Total Penalties | 72 (31st) | 41 (1st) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jets
QB Aaron Rodgers: 237.6 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Breece Hall: 74.0 rush yards, 22.8 receiving yards
WR Garrett Wilson: 5.4 receptions, 67.9 receiving yards
Cardinals
QB Kyler Murray: 210.1 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB James Conner: 61.6 rush yards, 11.8 receiving yards
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.: 4.2 receptions, 62.1 receiving yards
Eagles (6-2, 3-1 Away) vs. Cowboys (3-5, 0-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Eagles | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 24.9 (11th) | 21.4 (20th) |
Point Differential | +44 (9th) | -54 (24th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.3 (18th) | 8.0 (21st) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (20th) | -7 (27th) |
Total Penalties | 51 (8th) | 62 (24th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: 218.3 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Saquon Barkley: 85.0 rush yards, 21.4 receiving yards
WR A.J. Brown: 5.4 receptions, 81.1 receiving yards
Cowboys
QB Cooper Rush: 204.0 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Rico Dowdle: 44.4 rush yards, 14.4 receiving yards
WR CeeDee Lamb: 5.7 receptions, 72.2 receiving yards
Lions (7-1, 4-0 Away) vs. Texans (6-3, 4-0 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Lions | Texans |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 32.2 (1st) | 23.3 (17th) |
Point Differential | +110 (1st) | +1 (17th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-1 | 5-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 16.3 (3rd) | 6.3 (25th) |
Turnover Differential | +11 (1st) | +3 (10th) |
Total Penalties | 55 (16th) | 68 (28th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Danielle Hunter has generated a league-high 54 pressures in 2024, with 21 of his pressures occurring in under 2.5 seconds (3rd-most).
C.J. Stroud has been pressured on 41.4% of his dropbacks this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL. Stroud has thrown for the 2nd-most yards (808) when under pressure in 2024 while averaging the 7th-most yards per attempt on such passes (7.5).
Jahmyr Gibbs has gained 3.3 yards before contact per carry in 2024, also the most among the same group of running backs.
Dolphins (2-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Rams (4-4, 3-1 Home)
Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN
Category | Dolphins | Rams |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 15.5 (31st) | 21.2 (21st) |
Point Differential | -63 (26th) | -24 (23rd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 4.0 (31st) | 6.0 (27th) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (21st) | +2 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 59 (22nd) | 44 (5th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Dolphins
QB Tua Tagovailoa: 246.5 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB De’Von Achane: 55.4 rush yards, 34.2 receiving yards
WR Tyreek Hill: 5.2 receptions, 72.1 receiving yards
Rams
QB Matthew Stafford: 245.9 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Kyren Williams: 79.2 rush yards, 18.4 receiving yards
WR Puka Nacua: 5.9 receptions, 78.9 receiving yards
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