NFL Week 13 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings
The matchup of Week 13 is the 9-2 Eagles against the 8-4 Ravens, where we get to see Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry on the same field. The Dolphins are somehow back in the playoff hunt but face a tough test against the Packers at Lambeau on Thanksgiving. And the Buccaneers, Rams and 49ers are all 5-6 and could really use a win on Sunday.
We have NFL games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday, and there are no byes this week. Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Bears (4-7, 0-4 Away) vs. Lions (10-1, 4-1 Home)
Thursday, 12:30pm on CBS
Category | Bears | Lions |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.1 (22nd) | 32.7 (1st) |
Point Differential | +4 (15th) | +177 (1st) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 4-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.5 (6th) | 18.1 (2nd) |
Turnover Differential | +9 (3rd) | +9 (3rd) |
Total Penalties | 70 (16th) | 68 (13th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Caleb Williams has been sacked 44 times in 2024 (most in the NFL). The Lions are averaging just 1.7 sacks per game since Week 7, the 4th-fewest in the NFL over that span (Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6).
The Lions-Bears matchup will be just the 8th instance over the last 50 seasons that a team on a 9+ game winning streak faces a team on a 5+ game losing streak (single season streaks only). The team on the winning streak won in each of the previous 7 such matchups.
The Lions have scored a rushing TD in 25 consecutive games, including playoffs, the longest streak in NFL history.
Giants (2-9, 2-3 Away) vs. Cowboys (4-7, 0-5 Home)
Thursday, 4:30pm on FOX
Category | Giants | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 14.8 (32nd) | 20.1 (22nd) |
Point Differential | -89 (28th) | -98 (29th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-5 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.5 (25th) | 8.0 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (25th) | -9 (30th) |
Total Penalties | 58 (3rd) | 80 (25th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Giants
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 62.3 rush yards, 16.6 receiving yards
WR Malik Nabers: 5.2 receptions, 61.0 receiving yards
WR Wan’Dale Robinson: 4.1 receptions, 37.7 receiving yards
Cowboys
QB Cooper Rush: 217 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Rico Dowdle: 46.1 rush yards, 15.0 receiving yards
WR CeeDee Lamb: 6.6 receptions, 67.6 receiving yards
Dolphins (5-6, 2-3 Away) vs. Packers (8-3, 4-2 Home)
Thursday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Dolphins | Packers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.5 (24th) | 26.2 (8th) |
Point Differential | -21 (20th) | +65 (8th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-3 | 5-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.0 (17th) | 10.2 (15th) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (19th) | +8 (5th) |
Total Penalties | 67 (12th) | 75 (22nd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
From Weeks 3-7 with Tagovailoa out, the Dolphins offense generated the 3rd-fewest yards per play (4.3), 3rd-lowest success rate (36.0%), and fewest EPA per play (-0.33). However, since Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, the Dolphins offense has averaged the 15th-most yards per play (5.6), 3rd-highest success rate (48.2%), and 4th-most EPA per play (+0.10).
Josh Jacobs has forced 67 missed tackles this season, tied for the 3rd-most in the NFL. Jacobs has also amassed 740 rushing yards after contact in 2024, 3rd-most in the league, trailing only Derrick Henry (861) and Saquon Barkley (817).
The Packers are 32-10 in the Matt LaFleur era (since 2019) in Week 10 or later. Only the Chiefs (33-9) have a better record in Week 10 or later since 2019. The Packers are 20-3 in home games in Week 10 or later since 2019 (best in NFL).
Raiders (2-9, 1-5 Away) vs. Chiefs (10-1, 5-0 Home)
Friday, 3pm on Prime
Category | Raiders | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.7 (26th) | 24.5 (10th) |
Point Differential | -108 (30th) | +52 (11th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-2 | 8-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 3.5 (32nd) | 6.1 (27th) |
Turnover Differential | -17 (32nd) | -5 (23rd) |
Total Penalties | 64 (8th) | 61 (5th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Raiders
RB Alexander Mattison: 23.6 rush yards, 15.5 receiving yards
WR Jakobi Meyers: 4.8 receptions, 53.8 receiving yards
TE Brock Bowers: 4.8 receptions, 53.2 receiving yards
Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes: 270.8 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD
RB Kareem Hunt: 27.1 rush yards, 8.5 receiving yards
TE Travis Kelce: 6.7 receptions, 70.6 receiving yards
Chargers (7-4, 3-2 Away) vs. Falcons (6-5, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Chargers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.1 (18th) | 22.2 (16th) |
Point Differential | +68 (6th) | -30 (21st) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 5-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 13.4 (8th) | 6.3 (26th) |
Turnover Differential | +8 (5th) | -3 (21st) |
Total Penalties | 60 (4th) | 65 (9th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Ladd McConkey has caught 49 of 69 targets for 698 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, generating +114 receiving yards over expected and +71 yards after the catch over expected, both of which rank 3rd among rookies.
Through Week 12, the Falcons are one of only four teams to have only one pass rusher with at least 20 pressures (Kaden Ellis, 21). Justin Herbert is the only quarterback who has not thrown an interception when not pressured. On such dropbacks, Herbert has recorded 8.5 yards per attempt (7th-most) and has generated +0.29 EPA per dropback (10th-most).
Bijan Robinson (51) and Tyler Allgeier (25) have combined to force 76 missed tackles this season, the 4th-most among running back duos in the NFL. The Falcons RB pairing have also combined for 874 yards after contact (Robinson: 552, Allgeier: 322), the 5th-most among running back duos.
Steelers (8-3, 4-2 Away) vs. Bengals (4-7, 1-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Steelers | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.9. (14th) | 27.0 (6th) |
Point Differential | +66 (7th) | +1 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-3 | 1-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.6 (19th) | 11.0 (12th) |
Turnover Differential | +13 (2nd) | +1 (15th) |
Total Penalties | 70 (16th) | 52 (2nd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Steelers
QB Russell Wilson: 219.2 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Najee Harris: 56.3 rush yards, 12.1 receiving yards
WR George Pickens: 4.6 receptions, 69.6 receiving yards
Bengals
QB Joe Burrow: 276.6 pass yards, 2.1 pass TD
RB Chase Brown: 77.1 rush yards, 30.7 receiving yards
WR Ja’Marr Chase: 6.5 receptions, 84.7 receiving yards
Texans (7-5, 3-3 Away) vs. Jaguars (2-9, 2-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Texans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.8 (11th) | 18.9 (25th) |
Point Differential | +17 (13th) | -108 (30th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-4 | 1-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 8.9 (22nd) | 9.5 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | +8 (5th) | -8 (29th) |
Total Penalties | 92 (31st) | 63 (7th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Jaguars defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards over expected (-65) and the 7th-lowest success rate (34.0%) in the NFL on designed runs outside the tackles this season. Joe Mixon has generated the 5th-most rushing yards over expected this season on designed runs to the outside (+116) and has recorded the most touchdowns (9) in the NFL on such carries this season.
CJ Stroud has been pressured in under 2.5 seconds at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season (20.6%). Stoud has been sacked 27 times (most in NFL) when pressured quick but has fared well on such drop backs generating the 6th-highest success rate (38.5%) when facing quick pressure.
Danielle Hunter has generated 78 pressures this season (most in the NFL), 20 more than the next closest player, Myles Garrett (58). Hunter’s 20 pressure differential is the largest 12 weeks into the season since at least 2018.
Cardinals (6-5, 2-3 Away) vs. Vikings (9-2, 4-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Cardinals | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.2 (16th) | 24.9 (9th) |
Point Differential | +8 (14th) | +77 (4th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-2 | 6-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 13.3 (9th) | 9.9 (18th) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (16th) | +4 (8th) |
Total Penalties | 51 (1st) | 71 (19th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Cardinals
QB Kyler Murray: 206.3 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB James Conner: 61.0 rush yards, 18.1 receiving yards
TE Trey McBride: 5.2 receptions, 52.4 receiving yards
Vikings
QB Sam Darnold: 253.6 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Aaron Jones: 66.9 rush yards, 21.4 receiving yards
WR Justin Jefferson: 5.3 receptions, 82.9 receiving yards
Colts (5-7, 2-4 Away) vs. Patriots (3-9, 1-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Colts | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.2 (21st) | 16.4 (31st) |
Point Differential | -32 (22nd) | -85 (26th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-5 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 3.6 (31st) | 8.3 (23rd) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (19th) | -7 (27th) |
Total Penalties | 70 (16th) | 81 (26th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jonathan Taylor has been effective rushing outside the tackles with 5.1 yards per carry (8th-most) and +80 rushing yards over expected (9th-most), both top 10 ranks among running backs with 50+ outside carries this season.
Anthony Richardson has recorded a league-high 12.2 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 123.8, the 3rd-highest against cover 2 this season. The Patriots utilize cover 2 on 19.7% of their dropbacks faced, the 8th-highest rate in the league. Additionally, they have allowed 8.9 yards per attempt when using cover 2, the 5th-most this season.
Drake Maye has been more effective than most rookie quarterbacks against the blitz with a 47.0% success rate (4th-highest) and a 37.9% first down conversion rate (5th-highest) this season, both top 5 ranks among quarterbacks with at least 150 rookie season pass attempts since 2018.
Seahawks (6-5, 3-1 Away) vs. Jets (3-8, 2-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Seahawks | Jets |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.4 (15th) | 18.5 (27th) |
Point Differential | +2 (16th) | -38 (23rd) |
Record in Close Games | 3-1 | 2-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.5 (14th) | 12.0 (11th) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (25th) | -3 (21st) |
Total Penalties | 83 (29th) | 77 (23rd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Seahawks
QB Geno Smith: 225.6 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Kenneth Walker III: 64.9 rush yards, 21.8 receiving yards
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 5.5 receptions, 60.0 receiving yards
Jets
QB Aaron Rodgers: 228.5 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Breece Hall: 76.5 rush yards, 25.2 receiving yards
WR Garrett Wilson: 5.1 receptions, 64.9 receiving yards
Titans (3-8, 2-4 Away) vs. Commanders (7-5, 4-2 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Titans | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.4 (28th) | 27.8 (5th) |
Point Differential | -88 (27th) | +57 (10th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 4-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.0 (21st) | 14.0 (7th) |
Turnover Differential | -12 (31st) | +3 (9th) |
Total Penalties | 88 (30th) | 71 (19th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Will Levis has been sacked on 84.6% of his dropbacks longer than 4 seconds, the highest rate in the NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed the lowest success rate (14.0%) and generated the 6th-highest pressure rate (82.5%) on opposing team dropbacks that are longer than 4 seconds.
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin have generated the 3rd-highest competition percentage over expected (+13.2%) and have recorded the 3rd-most touchdowns (7) out of any quarterback-wide receiver duo in the NFL this season (min. 30 pass attempts).
The Commanders have recorded 736 yards (3rd-most) and the most touchdowns in the NFL (11) on designed runs inside the tackles this season.
Buccaneers (5-6, 3-2 Away) vs. Panthers (3-8, 2-4 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on FOX
Category | Buccaneers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.1 (4th) | 17.6 (29th) |
Point Differential | +36 (12th) | -146 (32nd) |
Record in Close Games | 1-4 | 2-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 17.0 (3rd) | 6.0 (28th) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (16th) | -4 (23rd) |
Total Penalties | 65 (9th) | 81 (26th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield: 264.3 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD
RB Bucky Irving: 53.2 rush yards, 18.6 receiving yards
WR Mike Evans: 4.3 receptions, 67.5 receiving yards
Panthers
QB Bryce Young: 202.8 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Chuba Hubbard: 68.7 rush yards, 19.4 receiving yards
WR Adam Thielen: 4.6 receptions, 45.8 receiving yards
Rams (5-6, 2-3 Away) vs. Saints (4-7, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on FOX
Category | Rams | Saints |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.2 (20th) | 23.8 (11th) |
Point Differential | -43 (24th) | +2 (16th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 1-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.0 (28th) | 21.5 (1st) |
Turnover Differential | +3 (9th) | +2 (12th) |
Total Penalties | 61 (5th) | 71 (19th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jared Verse’s 51 pressures are 12 more than any other rookie this season and are the most by a rookie through 12 weeks since Nick Bosa had 55 in 2019. He has generated 6 pressures while double-teamed this season, tied for 3rd-most among edge rushers.
The Rams have used motion on a league-high 79.4% of pass plays this season. They have generated 7.0 yards per play on these plays and just 3.7 yards per pass play without motion, the biggest positive difference in yards per play (+3.3) by over 2 yards (Next Closest: TEN, +1.2). They have scored 14 of their 15 passing touchdowns this season on motion plays.
Since Week 6, Tyrann Mathieu has been targeted 8 times on 178 coverage snaps, allowing 4 receptions for 70 yards while generating 3 passes defensed including an interception. His 4.5% target rate is the 4th-lowest among 63 safeties with 100 coverage snaps in that span, and his 37.5% ball hawk rate is 2nd-highest.
Eagles (9-2, 5-1 Away) vs. Ravens (8-4, 4-1 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Eagles | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.9 (7th) | 30.3 (2nd) |
Point Differential | +97 (3rd) | +70 (5th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-1 | 5-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.8 (10th) | 10.9 (13th) |
Turnover Differential | +3 (9th) | +2 (12th) |
Total Penalties | 66 (11th) | 101 (32nd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: 218.2 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Saquon Barkley: 92.2 rush yards, 19.5 receiving yards
WR A.J. Brown: 5.5 receptions, 82.1 receiving yards
Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson: 223.2 pass yards, 1.6 pass TDs
RB Derrick Henry: 98.3 rush yards, 8.4 receiving yards
WR Zay Flowers: 5.3 receptions, 61.5 receiving yards
49ers (5-6, 2-3 Away) vs. Bills (9-2, 5-0 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | 49ers | Bills |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.6 (13th) | 29.1 (3rd) |
Point Differential | 0 (19th) | +106 (2nd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-4 | 3-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.2 (15th) | 14.9 (5th) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (16th) | +14 (1st) |
Total Penalties | 69 (15th) | 68 (13th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The 49ers have generated a +5.6% higher pressure rate and a +4.3% higher sack rate while allowing a -14.1% lower completion percentage with Nick Bosa on the field as opposed to off this season. Bosa has generated the 5th-most pressures in the NFL in 2024 (49) and his 20 quick pressures are the 7th-most.
Khalil Shakir has been a reliable safety-valve for Josh Allen this season, catching 84.8% of his targets, the highest catch rate among wide receivers (min. 50 targets). Shakir has generated 79.0% of his yards after the catch, the highest share among that same group of receivers.
Gregory Rousseau leads the Bills with 41 pressures this season, 18 more than his next closest teammate, resulting in the 10th-highest pressure share in the league (24.7%).
Browns (3-8, 1-4 Away) vs. Broncos (7-5, 3-2 Home)
Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN
Category | Browns | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 16.9 (30th) | 22.0 (19th) |
Point Differential | -81 (25th) | +62 (9th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-4 | 1-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.0 (30th) | 16.4 (4th) |
Turnover Differential | -7 (27th) | +2 (12th) |
Total Penalties | 82 (28th) | 79 (24th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Browns
QB Jameis Winston: 233.7 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB Nick Chubb: 58.3 rush yards, 7.6 receiving yards
TE David Njoku: 4.1 receptions, 44.2 receiving yards
Broncos
QB Bo Nix: 216.3 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Javonte Williams: 29.0 rush yards, 24.0 receiving yards
WR Courtland Sutton: 5.0 receptions, 67.4 receiving yards
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