NFL Week 14 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings
Coming into week 14, four teams are on win streaks of five or more: Detroit (10), Philadelphia (8), Buffalo (7) and Minnesota (5). The Lions host the Packers in Week 14, the Eagles get the 3-9 Panthers, the Bills travel to LA to take on the in-contention Rams, and the Vikings host the 6-6 Falcons.
The Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Commanders, Ravens and Texans all have byes. And in case you missed it, you can find our Week 14 Sportmoney x PFF Rundown at Sportmoney.com.
Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Packers (9-3, 4-1 Away) vs. Lions (11-1, 5-1 Home)
Thursday, 8:15pm on Prime
Category | Packers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.5 (8th) | 31.9 (1st) |
Point Differential | +78 (5th) | +180 (1st) |
Record in Close Games | 5-2 | 5-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.6 (14th) | 16.7 (2nd) |
Turnover Differential | +9 (5th) | +8 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 82 (22nd) | 74 (14th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Since losing to the Lions in Week 9, Jordan Love is 3-0 with 5 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 120.8 passer rating over his last three games.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both averaging 80+ scrimmage yards per game for the 2nd straight season. The only other running back duo to do so once over the last 15 seasons was Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara for the 2017 Saints.
Jared Goff is 4-0 with the Lions averaging 42.3 points per game over their last four home games. Meanwhile, the Packers are 4-0 and allowing just 19.8 points per game over their last four road games.
Jets (3-9, 1-5 Away) vs. Dolphins (5-7, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Jets | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.8 (26th) | 19.3 (24th) |
Point Differential | -43 (24th) | -34 (21st) |
Record in Close Games | 2-6 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.0 (10th) | 10.0 (16th) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (20th) | -2 (18th) |
Total Penalties | 89 (29th) | 77 (18th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jets
QB Aaron Rodgers: 214.4 pass yards, 1.5 pass TD
RB Breece Hall: 51.3 rush yards, 22.5 receiving yards
WR Garrett Wilson: 4.8 receptions, 61.4 receiving yards
Dolphins
QB Tua Tagovailoa: 252.9 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD
RB De’Von Achane: 60.3 rush yards, 35.4 receiving yards
Falcons (6-6, 3-2 Away) vs. Vikings (10-2, 5-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Falcons | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.4 (19th) | 24.8 (9th) |
Point Differential | -34 (21st) | +78 (5th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-4 | 7-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.3 (26th) | 9.0 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (24th) | +5 (8th) |
Total Penalties | 67 (4th) | 74 (14th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Kirk Cousins has been sacked only twice when facing the blitz this season, resulting in a league-low sack rate of 2.1%. Additionally, Cousins has averaged a time to throw of 2.44 seconds against the blitz in 2024, the 3rd-fastest in the NFL.
Andrew Van Ginkel has recorded the 2nd-most pressures on the Vikings (39) and the 2nd-most stops in the NFL among edge defenders this season.
Justin Jefferson has caught a league-high +9.3 receptions over expected against zone coverage this season. Nearly half of Jefferson’s receptions against zone coverage have come on intermediate targets, where he has caught 25 of 34 targets for a league-high 485 yards (+6.9 receptions over expected).
Saints (4-8, 1-4 Away) vs. Giants (2-10, 0-6 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Saints | Giants |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.0 (14th) | 15.2 (32nd) |
Point Differential | -5 (17th) | -96 (28th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-4 | 1-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 21.5 (1st) | 7.5 (25th) |
Turnover Differential | +2 (13th) | -8 (28th) |
Total Penalties | 75 (17th) | 71 (8th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Saints
QB Derek Carr: 214.5 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Alvin Kamara: 73.4 rush yards, 33.7 receiving yards
TE Juwan Johnson: 3.2 receptions, 32.9 receiving yards
Giants
QB Drew Lock: 222.2 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 47.7 rush yards, 14.8 receiving yards
WR Malik Nabers: 5.2 receptions, 62.0 receiving yards
Panthers (3-9, 1-4 Away) vs. Eagles (10-2, 4-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Panthers | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.1 (30th) | 26.7 (7th) |
Point Differential | -149 (32nd) | +102 (3rd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-2 | 6-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.0 (28th) | 12.0 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | -4 (22nd) | +3 (10th) |
Total Penalties | 88 (26th) | 74 (14th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Two of Bryce Young’s three career games with 250+ passing yards have come in his last 2 games. Young had 263 passing yards in Week 12 against the Chiefs and 298 passing yards in Week 13 against the Buccaneers.
Saquon Barkley has 8 games this season with 100+ rushing yards, which is tied with Wilbert Montgomery in 1981 for the most such games in a season in Eagles history.
The Eagles will be just the seventh #1 ranked rushing offense to play at home against the last ranked rushing defense in Week 14 or later since 1970. The previous six teams are 6-0, averaging 226.3 rushing yards per game.
Browns (3-9, 1-5 Away) vs. Steelers (9-3, 4-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Browns | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.2 (29th) | 24.7 (10th) |
Point Differential | -90 (26th) | +72 (7th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-4 | 6-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.0 (30th) | 9.2 (19th) |
Turnover Differential | -8 (28th) | +15 (2nd) |
Total Penalties | 87 (25th) | 79 (21st) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Browns
QB Jameis Winston: 234.4 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Nick Chubb: 58.8 rush yards, 7.5 receiving yards
WR Jerry Jeudy: 3.9 receptions, 52.3 receiving yards
Steelers
QB Russell Wilson: 230.8 pass yards, 1.5 pass TD
RB Najee Harris: 60.8 rush yards, 12.8 receiving yards
WR George Pickens: 5.0 receptions, 73.6 receiving yards
Raiders (2-10, 1-6 Away) vs. Buccaneers (6-6, 2-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Raiders | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.6 (27th) | 27.9 (5th) |
Point Differential | -110 (29th) | +39 (12th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 3.5 (31st) | 14.7 (6th) |
Turnover Differential | -18 (32nd) | -1 (15th) |
Total Penalties | 73 (12th) | 72 (10th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Brock Bowers has 100+ receiving yards and at least 1 receiving touchdown in 2 of his last 3 games. All other rookie tight ends in the last 5 seasons have 2 such games combined.
Bucky Irving has 1,017 scrimmage yards in 2024, making him the only rookie this season with 1,000+ scrimmage yards through 13 weeks.
Baker Mayfield has a completion percentage of 70.8% this season. That would surpass Brian Griese’s 69.3% mark in 2004 for the highest in a season in Buccaneers history.
Jaguars (2-10, 0-6 Away) vs. Titans (3-9, 1-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Jaguars | Titans |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.0 (25th) | 18.4 (28th) |
Point Differential | -111 (30th) | -111 (30th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-7 | 2-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.5 (18th) | 9.0 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | -9 (30th) | -13 (31st) |
Total Penalties | 67 (4th) | 100 (31st) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jaguars
QB Mac Jones: 210.4 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Travis Etienne: 34.7 rush yards, 20.4 receiving yards
TE Evan Engram: 4.7 receptions, 45.3 receiving yards
Titans
QB Will Levis: 215.4 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Tony Pollard: 65.4 rush yards, 14.1 receiving yards
WR Calvin Ridley: 4.3 receptions, 63.3 receiving yards
Seahawks (7-5, 4-1 Away) vs. Cardinals (6-6, 4-2 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on CBS
Category | Seahawks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.7 (15th) | 22.2 (17th) |
Point Differential | +7 (14th) | +7 (14th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-1 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.7 (17th) | 13.3 (8th) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (24th) | -1 (15th) |
Total Penalties | 88 (26th) | 61 (1st) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Garrett Williams has allowed the lowest completion percentage (51.2%), completion percentage over expected (-13.7%), and passer rating (48.6) among slot cornerbacks with at least 25 targets this season. His 3.9 yards per target allowed are the fewest among slot corners since 2018 (Taron Johnson, 3.8).
James Conner was held to 1.1 yards per carry and -2.1 rushing yards over expected per carry in Week 12 against the Seahawks, both season lows. The Seahawks contacted Conner behind the line of scrimmage on 57.1% of his carries and his 8 total yards on the day all came after contact.
Geno Smith has connected with Jaxon Smith-Njigba on 20 of his 22 pass attempts (90.9%) for 261 yards and 1 touchdown since the Seahawks Bye in Week 10, generating the 2nd-highest success rate (81.8%) among all QB-WR duos over that span (min. 10 pass attempts).
Bills (10-2, 4-2 Away) vs. Rams (6-6, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Bills | Rams |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 29.6 (2nd) | 21.2 (20th) |
Point Differential | +131 (2nd) | -36 (23rd) |
Record in Close Games | 3-1 | 5-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.9 (3rd) | 6.3 (27th) |
Turnover Differential | +17 (1st) | +3 (10th) |
Total Penalties | 73 (12th) | 64 (3rd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Bills
QB Josh Allen: 262.3 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD
RB James Cook: 68.3 rush yards, 15.5 receiving yards
WR Khalil Shakir: 5.5 receptions, 61.7 receiving yards
Rams
QB Matthew Stafford: 229.6 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Kyren Williams: 69.3 rush yards, 17.3 receiving yards
WR Puka Nacua: 5.6 receptions, 75.3 receiving yards
Bears (4-8, 0-5 Away) vs. 49ers (5-7, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Bears | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.1 (23rd) | 22.5 (16th) |
Point Differential | +1 (16th) | -25 (19th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-6 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.5 (7th) | 10.2 (15th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (4th) | -3 (20th) |
Total Penalties | 78 (19th) | 71 (8th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Bears have played 4 games in 2024 with a point differential of 3 or less with under 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They are 0-4 in those games (tied for the worst record with the Jets).
Caleb Williams has gone 6 consecutive starts with 0 interceptions. That is tied for the longest streak by a rookie quarterback since 1950.
The 49ers have a -53 point differential over their last two games (both losses). That is tied for the worst point differential in any two-game span of Kyle Shanahan’s head coaching career.
Chargers (8-4, 4-2 Away) vs. Chiefs (11-1, 6-0 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.7 (18th) | 24.1 (11th) |
Point Differential | +72 (7th) | +54 (11th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-3 | 9-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.2 (9th) | 5.7 (29th) |
Turnover Differential | +11 (3rd) | -4 (22nd) |
Total Penalties | 67 (4th) | 68 (7th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Chargers
QB Justin Herbert: 250.7 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Gus Edwards: 46.5 rush yards, 8.4 receiving yards
WR Ladd McConkey: 4.4 receptions, 54.6 receiving yards
Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes: 258.8 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Isiah Pacheco: 42.5 rush yards, 17.8 receiving yards
TE Travis Kelce: 6.3 receptions, 66.1 receiving yards
Bengals (4-8, 3-3 Away) vs. Cowboys (5-7, 1-5 Home)
Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN
Category | Bengals | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 27.9 (5th) | 20.7 (21st) |
Point Differential | -5 (17th) | -91 (27th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-7 | 4-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 11.0 (12th) | 7.8 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (15th) | -7 (27th) |
Total Penalties | 63 (2nd) | 86 (24th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Cowboys run defense has struggled this season against designed runs, allowing 4.8 yards per carry (8th-most), +130 rushing yards over expected (10th-most) and a 45.9% success rate (4th-highest).
Ja’Marr Chase currently leads the league in yards (1142), touchdowns (13), receiving yards over expected (+326), and yards after catch over expected (+222).
Osa Odighizuwa has generated 22 pressures in the last 5 games across 157 pass rushes (14.0%), the 6th-highest pressure rate among defensive tackles with 50+ pass rushes over that span and over double his pressure rate before the bye (6.9%).
Reply