NFL Week 15 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings
There are two heavyweight matchups on the NFL slate in Week 15, both at 4:25pm on Sunday: The Bills travel to Detroit to take on the Lions (-2.5), and the Steelers and Eagles (-5) face off in Philadelphia. There are only two other games that feature two .500 or better teams, the Buccaneers vs. Chargers (-3) and Packers (-3) vs. Seahawks. But the Thursday Night Game between the Rams and 49ers (-2.5) is huge for the NFC West.
Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Rams (7-6, 3-3 Away) vs. 49ers (6-7, 4-3 Home)
Thursday, 8:15pm on Prime
Category | Rams | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.9 (16th) | 23.7 (11th) |
Point Differential | -34 (22nd) | 0 (16th) |
Record in Close Games | 6-4 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.6 (28th) | 12.7 (9th) |
Turnover Differential | +3 (11th) | -3 (19th) |
Total Penalties | 73 (4th) | 78 (10th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Kobie Turner has generated a league-high 16 pressures when double teamed this season while being double-teamed on 51.3% of his pass rushes, the 7th-highest rate among defensive tackles (min. 150 pass rushes).
The Rams have aligned under center at top 10 rate in every season under Sean McVay and the 49ers have done the same in every season but 2021 under Kyle Shanahan. The Rams have featured more pistol over their last two seasons (235 plays) compared to McVay’s first six seasons as head coach (9 total plays) but have transitioned back under center as of late.
The 49ers have utilized a 4-man pass rush on a league-high 80.8% of dropbacks this season, opting to blitz on just 17.4% of dropbacks, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league. The 49ers have been ineffective at generating pressure when blitzing, recording the 4th-lowest pressure rate when doing so (34.2%), compared to the 6th-highest pressure rate when not blitzing (34.6%).
Cowboys (5-8, 4-2 Away) vs. Panthers (3-10, 2-5 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Cowboys | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.6 (21st) | 17.9 (28th) |
Point Differential | -98 (26th) | -155 (32nd) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 2-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.8 (23rd) | 6.0 (27th) |
Turnover Differential | -8 (26th) | -5 (24th) |
Total Penalties | 90 (25th) | 95 (26th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Cowboys
QB Cooper Rush: 232.3 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Rico Dowdle: 62.5 rush yards, 18.5 receiving yards
WR CeeDee Lamb: 6.4 receptions, 69.0 receiving yards
Panthers
QB Bryce Young: 190.0 pass yards, 1.0 pass TD
RB Chuba Hubbard: 74.5 rush yards, 17.7 receiving yards
WR Adam Thielen: 5.4 receptions, 53.0 receiving yards
Chiefs (12-1, 5-1 Away) vs. Browns (3-10, 2-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Chiefs | Browns |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.7 (11th) | 17.8 (29th) |
Point Differential | +56 (11th) | -103 (28th) |
Record in Close Games | 10-0 | 3-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.4 (29th) | 5.0 (30th) |
Turnover Differential | -4 (22nd) | -10 (29th) |
Total Penalties | 76 (7th) | 96 (28th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Patrick Mahomes has averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt when under pressure this season, the 9th-fewest in the NFL and the fewest of his career (career average: 6.8 yards per attempt).
Myles Garrett has generated 63 pressures this season, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL. Garrett has recorded 46 more pressures than the next closest current Browns edge rusher (Isaiah McGuire) in 2024, the largest gap in pressures of any team’s top 2 edge rushers.
Since taking over as the Browns starting quarterback in Week 8, Jameis Winston has thrown for 739 yards on intermediate passes (10-19 air yards), the most in the NFL. However, his 5 interceptions on passes of that length are the 2nd-most in the league over that span.
Dolphins (6-7, 2-4 Away) vs. Texans (8-5, 4-2 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Dolphins | Texans |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.3 (23rd) | 23.7 (11th) |
Point Differential | -28 (20th) | +20 (13th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-3 | 6-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.3 (19th) | 8.1 (22nd) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (16th) | +9 (5th) |
Total Penalties | 85 (21st) | 95 (26th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Dolphins
QB Tua Tagovailoa: 244.4 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB De’Von Achane: 57.6 rush yards, 34.2 receiving yards
WR Tyreek Hill: 4.9 receptions, 66.9 receiving yards
Texans
QB C.J. Stroud: 247.4 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Joe Mixon: 86.6 rush yards, 24.6 receiving yards
WR Nico Collins: 5.9 receptions, 87.8 receiving yards
Jets (3-10, 1-6 Away) vs. Jaguars (3-10, 2-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Jets | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.3 (25th) | 18.3 (26th) |
Point Differential | -49 (23rd) | -107 (29th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-7 | 2-7 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.0 (11th) | 7.7 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (19th) | -11 (30th) |
Total Penalties | 99 (30th) | 72 (2nd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Jets have allowed the 3rd-lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (25.6%), due in part to Aaron Rodgers quick passing game (2.60 seconds time to throw, 3rd-fastest in the NFL).
Tank Bigsby has averaged 4.4 yards after contact per carry this season, the most among running backs (min. 75 carries). Bigsby has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on inside rushes this season, the 7th-most among running backs (min. 40 inside carries).
The Jaguars defense has allowed league-highs in completions (23) and yards (847) on deep (20+ air yard) attempts this season.
Commanders (8-5, 3-3 Away) vs. Saints (5-8, 3-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Commanders | Saints |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.9 (4th) | 22.3 (17th) |
Point Differential | +80 (6th) | -2 (17th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.1 (5th) | 17.8 (1st) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (9th) | +2 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 78 (10th) | 81 (16th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels: 206.6 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Brian Robinson: 60.5 rush yards, 14.2 receiving yards
WR Terry McLaurin: 5.0 receptions, 70.8 receiving yards
Saints
QB Jake Haener: 176.0 pass yards, 0.9 pass TD
RB Alvin Kamara: 57.1 rush yards, 31.8 receiving yards
TE Juwan Johnson: 3.0 receptions, 34.0 receiving yards
Ravens (8-5, 4-3 Away) vs. Giants (2-11, 0-7 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Ravens | Giants |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 29.5 (3rd) | 14.9 (32nd) |
Point Differential | +65 (10th) | -99 (27th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-5 | 1-7 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.9 (13th) | 7.5 (25th) |
Turnover Differential | +2 (13th) | -8 (26th) |
Total Penalties | 105 (32nd) | 83 (19th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Derrick Henry has forced the 3rd-most missed tackles in the NFL this season (78), gaining an additional 587 yards off said missed tackles, most in the NFL by 80 yards. Henry is now responsible for 5 of the top 12 seasons in yards gained off missed tackles since 2018.
Micah McFadden stuffed 6 Saints rushes for no gain or loss in Week 14, the most in a game by any defender this season and has now recorded 15 run stuffs on the season (T-5th most in NFL).
Lamar Jackson has thrown a league-high 18 downfield touchdown passes (10+ air yards) this season, while throwing just 1 interception. Jackson's 57.0% completion percentage on such passes is 4th-highest in the NFL this season.
Bengals (5-8, 4-3 Away) vs. Titans (3-10, 1-5 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Bengals | Titans |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 27.8 (6th) | 17.5 (30th) |
Point Differential | +2 (15th) | -115 (30th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-7 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.2 (15th) | 9.0 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (15th) | -11 (30th) |
Total Penalties | 73 (4th) | 104 (31st) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Bengals
QB Joe Burrow: 284.8 pass yards, 2.1 pass TD
RB Chase Brown: 79.3 rush yards, 31.7 receiving yards
WR Ja’Marr Chase: 6.7 receptions, 91.7 receiving yards
Titans
QB Will Levis: 213.4 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Tony Pollard: 60.1 rush yards, 16.7 receiving yards
WR Calvin Ridley: 4.3 receptions, 62.7 receiving yards
Patriots (3-10, 2-5 Away) vs. Cardinals (6-7, 4-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Patriots | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.0 (31st) | 21.8 (18th) |
Point Differential | -86 (25th) | -5 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 8.3 (21st) | 13.3 (8th) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (25th) | -3 (19th) |
Total Penalties | 88 (23rd) | 67 (1st) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Patriots have blitzed on 35.9% of dropbacks this season (6th-highest) but have allowed 8.4 yards per attempt (4th-most) while doing so. The Patriots have allowed a +3.5% completion percentage above expected when blitzing.
Kyler Murray has recorded 851 passing yards when targeting Trey McBride from any alignment, his most when targeting one receiver in a season since DeAndre Hopkins in 2020 (1,372). McBride has recorded the most receptions (38) and 2nd-most yards (468) of any player from tight alignments this season.
Patriots running backs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 47.9% of their carries this season (7th-highest), having averaged a league-low 0.4 yards before contact per carry.
Colts (6-7, 3-4 Away) vs. Broncos (8-5, 4-2 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Colts | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.5 (22nd) | 23.5 (14th) |
Point Differential | -31 (21st) | +71 (8th) |
Record in Close Games | 6-5 | 1-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 3.2 (32nd) | 15.5 (4th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (16th) | +3 (11th) |
Total Penalties | 72 (2nd) | 83 (19th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Colts
QB Anthony Richardson: 184.2 pass yards, 1.0 pass TD
RB Jonathan Taylor: 72.8 rush yards, 14.6 receiving yards
WR Josh Downs: 4.7 receptions, 54.1 receiving yards
Broncos
QB Bo Nix: 217.3 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Javonte Williams: 31.3 rush yards, 21.6 receiving yards
WR Courtland Sutton: 5.5 receptions, 73.1 receiving yards
Bills (10-3, 4-3 Away) vs. Lions (12-1, 6-1 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Bills | Lions |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 30.5 (2nd) | 32.1 (1st) |
Point Differential | +129 (2nd) | +183 (1st) |
Record in Close Games | 3-2 | 6-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.9 (2nd) | 15.6 (3rd) |
Turnover Differential | +17 (1st) | +8 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 80 (13th) | 81 (16th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Josh Allen has completed 58.7% of his passes against the blitz this season, recording 969 yards and a league-high 14 touchdowns. Allen has also recorded a 123.8 passer rating against the blitz this season, 4th-highest in the NFL.
The Lions have blitzed at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL this season (36.4%) but have generated the 7th-lowest pressure rate when doing so (38.0%). The Lions have allowed just 4 touchdowns and forced 7 interceptions while blitzing this season, the 2nd-most interceptions in the NFL.
Since making his debut with the Lions in Week 11, Za’Darius Smith has generated 19 pressures and 3 sacks on 97 pass rushes, which is tied for the 3rd-most pressures over that time span.
Buccaneers (7-6, 4-2 Away) vs. Chargers (8-5, 4-2 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Buccaneers | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 27.9 (5th) | 21.3 (20th) |
Point Differential | +54 (12th) | +70 (9th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-4 | 3-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.7 (6th) | 12.2 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (16th) | +11 (3rd) |
Total Penalties | 77 (9th) | 74 (6th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield: 245.6 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Bucky Irving: 55.7 rush yards, 20.6 receiving yards
WR Mike Evans: 4.5 receptions, 68.7 receiving yards
Chargers
QB Justin Herbert: 242.9 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Gus Edwards: 40.4 rush yards, 7.7 receiving yards
WR Ladd McConkey: 5.3 receptions, 62.0 receiving yards
Steelers (10-3, 5-2 Away) vs. Eagles (11-2, 5-1 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Steelers | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 24.8 (10th) | 26.3 (8th) |
Point Differential | +85 (5th) | +108 (3rd) |
Record in Close Games | 6-3 | 7-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.6 (18th) | 11.5 (12th) |
Turnover Differential | +17 (1st) | +4 (9th) |
Total Penalties | 85 (21st) | 81 (16th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Steelers
QB Russell Wilson: 209.5 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Najee Harris: 56.0 rush yards, 11.4 receiving yards
TE Pat Freiermuth: 2.9 receptions, 30.7 receiving yards
Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: 215.4 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Saquon Barkley: 102.3 rush yards, 19.8 receiving yards
WR A.J. Brown: 4.3 receptions, 64.4 receiving yards
Packers (9-4, 4-2 Away) vs. Seahawks (8-5, 3-4 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Packers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.8 (7th) | 23.2 (15th) |
Point Differential | +75 (7th) | +19 (14th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-3 | 4-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.6 (14th) | 10.0 (17th) |
Turnover Differential | +9 (5th) | -4 (22nd) |
Total Penalties | 89 (24th) | 97 (29th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Packers
QB Jordan Love: 239.0 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD
RB Josh Jacobs: 78.8 rush yards, 18.3 receiving yards
WR Romeo Doubs: 3.6 receptions, 45.4 receiving yards
Seahawks
QB Geno Smith: 235.1 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Kenneth Walker III: 62.2 rush yards, 22.3 receiving yards
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 5.6 receptions, 60.8 receiving yards
Bears (4-9, 0-6 Away) vs. Vikings (11-2, 6-1 Home)
Monday, 8pm on ABC
Category | Bears | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.5 (24th) | 26.1 (9th) |
Point Differential | -24 (19th) | +99 (4th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-6 | 7-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.5 (7th) | 10.1 (16th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (4th) | +8 (7th) |
Total Penalties | 80 (13th) | 80 (13th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Chicago Bears have struggled to gain extra yards on the ground, averaging the fewest yards after contact per carry (2.7) and 6th-lowest missed tackle forced rate on designed runs (20.4%) this season.
The Vikings defense blitzes on 45.2% of early downs, the highest rate in the league; however, they blitz at the 10th-lowest rate (27.2%) on late downs. Their +18% difference in blitz rate is the largest difference in blitz rates between early and late downs among all teams.
Sam Darnold has thrown for 19.4 yards per deep pass attempt (20+ air yards) this season, the 3rd-most in a season by any QB with at least 40+ deep pass attempt since 2018.
Falcons (6-7, 3-3 Away) vs. Raiders (2-11, 1-4 Home)
Monday, 8:30pm on ESPN
Category | Falcons | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.4 (19th) | 18.2 (27th) |
Point Differential | -55 (24th) | -125 (31st) |
Record in Close Games | 5-4 | 2-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.3 (26th) | 3.5 (31st) |
Turnover Differential | -9 (28th) | -17 (32nd) |
Total Penalties | 79 (12th) | 76 (7th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Falcons
QB Kirk Cousins: 235.2 pass yards, 1.5 pass TD
RB Bijan Robinson: 74.9 rush yards, 28.6 receiving yards
WR Drake London: 5.6 receptions, 73.2 receiving yards
Raiders
RB Sincere McCormick: 48.3 rush yards, 7.7 receiving yards
WR Jakobi Meyers: 5.8 receptions, 64.9 receiving yards
TE Brock Bowers: 6.0 receptions, 66.2 receiving yards
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