NFL Week 16 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings
Fifteen of 16 games in Week 16 have playoff implications. Saturday’s Steelers vs. Ravens showdown is huge for the battle for the AFC North (Pittsburgh clinches with a win). The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win or tie against the Commanders. And Baltimore, Denver, LA Chargers, Green Bay and Washington can earn a playoff spot this week with a win plus some help. Even the lone “meaningless” game, the Jaguars vs. Raiders, matters…for the NFL Draft order.
Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Broncos (9-5, 4-3 Away) vs. Chargers (8-6, 4-3 Home)
Thursday, 8:15pm on Prime
Category | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 24.0 (10th) | 21.0 (20th) |
Point Differential | +89 (6th) | +47 (12th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-4 | 3-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.8 (2nd) | 12.2 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (10th) | +11 (4th) |
Total Penalties | 89 (17th) | 81 (6th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Bo Nix has recorded 21.8% of his dropbacks outside the tackle box this season (highest in NFL). Nix has scrambled on 17.8% of dropbacks (7th-highest) and has traveled an average distance of 9.0 yards per dropback (4th-most).
The Chargers’ defense has been more effective on the 213 dropbacks faced with edge rusher Joey Bosa on the field, as they have generated a 39.0% pressure rate and allowed a 39.8% success rate compared to a 36.0% pressure rate and 45.1% success rate allowed on the 292 dropbacks faced without him.
Courtland Sutton has as many receptions (13) on targets with a sub-50% completion probability as all other Broncos receivers combined this season, despite recording 30 fewer such targets (37 vs 67).
Texans (9-5, 4-3 Away) vs. Chiefs (13-1, 7-0 Home)
Saturday, 1pm on NBC
Category | Texans | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.4 (13th) | 23.5 (12th) |
Point Differential | +28 (13th) | +70 (11th) |
Record in Close Games | 7-4 | 10-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 8.1 (23rd) | 6.1 (27th) |
Turnover Differential | +12 (3rd) | +2 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 102 (25th) | 80 (3rd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Texans
QB C.J. Stroud: 241.2 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Joe Mixon: 77.8 rush yards, 22.1 receiving yards
WR Nico Collin’s: 5.3 receptions, 78.8 receiving yards
Chiefs
RB Isiah Pacheco: 62.7 rush yards, 17.3 receiving yards
WR DeAndre Hopkins: 4.2 receptions, 48.3 receiving yards
TE Travis Kelce: 6.1 receptions, 63.8 receiving yards
Steelers (10-4, 5-3 Away) vs. Ravens (9-5, 4-2 Home)
Saturday, 4:30pm on FOX
Category | Steelers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 24.0 (10th) | 29.9 (3rd) |
Point Differential | +71 (10th) | +86 (7th) |
Record in Close Games | 6-3 | 5-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.6 (18th) | 12.0 (11th) |
Turnover Differential | +18 (1st) | +2 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 90 (20th) | 117 (32nd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Najee Harris has recorded a 49.9% playtime percentage to Jaylen Warren’s 42.0% playtime percentage in the 12 games that both players have been active this season (excluding Weeks 4 & 5). Harris has played on 58.6% of early downs while Warren has been the primary third down back (73.3% of snaps) in those 12 games.
Lamar Jackson leads the NFL in completion percentage (85.7%) and yards per attempt (8.5) on quick passes (under 2.5 seconds), despite having averaged the 3rd-fewest air yards per attempt (2.6) on such passes this season.
The Baltimore Ravens have recorded the 10th-lowest pressure rate (31.6%) but have converted 23.5% of their pressures into sacks this season, the 4th-highest sack conversion rate in the NFL.
Giants (2-12, 2-4 Away) vs. Falcons (7-7, 3-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Giants | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 14.9 (32nd) | 20.9 (21st) |
Point Differential | -120 (29th) | -49 (23rd) |
Record in Close Games | 1-7 | 6-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.5 (25th) | 6.3 (26th) |
Turnover Differential | -8 (27th) | -7 (25th) |
Total Penalties | 89 (17th) | 85 (9th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Giants
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 57.4 rush yards, 21.1 receiving yards
WR Malik Nabers: 5.3 receptions, 62.8 receiving yards
WR Wan’Dale Robinson: 3.8 receptions, 35.6 receiving yards
Falcons
QB Michael Penix Jr.: 214.5 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Bijan Robinson: 75.2 rush yards, 28.7 receiving yards
WR Drake London: 5.7 receptions, 74.7 receiving yards
Patriots (3-11, 2-6 Away) vs. Bills (11-3, 6-0 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.0 (31st) | 31.8 (2nd) |
Point Differential | -99 (26th) | +135 (2nd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 4-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 8.3 (22nd) | 15.0 (5th) |
Turnover Differential | -7 (25th) | +18 (1st) |
Total Penalties | 92 (22nd) | 86 (12th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Josh Allen has thrown 16 passing touchdowns when blitzed, the most in the NFL, despite having only 122 pass attempts against the blitz (12th-most).
Christian Gonzalez is the only player in the NFL who has been the nearest defender on more than 10 deep attempts (12) and allowed 1 completion or fewer (1). Gonzalez has forced a 66.7% tight window rate on these passes and recorded 4 passes defensed.
Khalil Shakir has recorded 590 receiving yards this season on underneath routes (less than 10 air yards) and has generated +140 yards over expected (2nd-most in NFL) and 4 touchdowns (T-5th most).
Cardinals (7-7, 2-4 Away) vs. Panthers (3-11, 2-6 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Cardinals | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.4 (15th) | 17.6 (28th) |
Point Differential | +8 (15th) | -171 (32nd) |
Record in Close Games | 3-3 | 2-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 13.3 (8th) | 6.0 (28th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (18th) | -8 (27th) |
Total Penalties | 71 (1st) | 103 (28th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Cardinals
QB Kyler Murray: 224.2 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB James Conner: 67.1 rush yards, 21.4 receiving yards
TE Trey McBride: 5.8 receptions, 60.8 receiving yards
Panthers
QB Bryce Young: 198.3 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Chuba Hubbard: 62.4 rush yards, 18.1 receiving yards
WR Adam Thielen: 5.7 receptions, 56.5 receiving yards
Lions (12-2, 6-0 Away) vs. Bears (4-10, 4-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Lions | Bears |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 32.8 (1st) | 19.0 (25th) |
Point Differential | +177 (1st) | -42 (21st) |
Record in Close Games | 6-2 | 2-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.6 (4th) | 14.5 (6th) |
Turnover Differential | +7 (8th) | +10 (5th) |
Total Penalties | 86 (12th) | 86 (17th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Bears defense has generated the highest pressure rate (40.8%) in the NFL since their Week 7 bye, up 7.0% from their pressure rate through the first six weeks of the season. However, the Bears have converted just 14.0% of their pressures into sacks since Week 8, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 40.0% of his carries outside the tackles this season, 2nd-lowest among running backs (min. 50 carries).
While the Lions have allowed the 4th-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks on downfield attempts this season (1,762), they have held them to the 5th-lowest completion percentage on such attempts (42.7%). The Lions allowed Williams to complete 6 of his 17 downfield attempts for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns on downfield passes in Week 13.
Titans (3-11, 2-5 Away) vs. Colts (6-8, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.1 (27th) | 20.0 (23rd) |
Point Differential | -125 (30th) | -49 (23rd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-4 | 6-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.0 (21st) | 3.2 (32nd) |
Turnover Differential | -14 (30th) | -4 (20th) |
Total Penalties | 116 (31st) | 80 (3rd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Titans
QB Mason Rudolph: 213.6 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB Tony Pollard: 53.0 rush yards, 13.8 receiving yards
WR Calvin Ridley: 4.1 receptions, 60.1 receiving yards
Colts
QB Anthony Richardson: 192.6 pass yards, 1.0 pass TD
RB Jonathan Taylor: 75.4 rush yards, 15.1 receiving yards
WR Josh Downs: 4.9 receptions, 56.3 receiving yards
Rams (8-6, 4-3 Away) vs. Jets (4-10, 2-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Rams | Jets |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.1 (17th) | 20.2 (22nd) |
Point Differential | -28 (19th) | -42 (21st) |
Record in Close Games | 7-4 | 3-7 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.6 (29th) | 10.8 (14th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (10th) | -1 (17th) |
Total Penalties | 77 (2nd) | 107 (30th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Rams
QB Matthew Stafford: 234.7 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Kyren Williams: 74.9 rush yards, 15.5 receiving yards
WR Puka Nacua: 6.2 receptions, 82.4 receiving yards
Jets
QB Aaron Rodgers: 230.5 pass yards, 1.4 pass TD
RB Breece Hall: 58.0 rush yards, 24.0 receiving yards
WR Davante Adams: 5.0 receptions, 64.9 receiving yards
Browns (3-11, 1-6 Away) vs. Bengals (6-8, 1-5 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Browns | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.1 (30th) | 28.5 (5th) |
Point Differential | -117 (28th) | +12 (14th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-4 | 2-7 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.0 (30th) | 10.2 (16th) |
Turnover Differential | -16 (31st) | +2 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 102 (25th) | 87 (14th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jerry Jeudy leads the NFL in receiving yards (586) and yards after the catch (184) on downfield targets (10+ air yards) since Jameis Winston became the starting quarterback in Week 8.
Chase Brown has played 85.3% of the Bengals offensive snaps since Week 10. Brown has been productive in the pass game, generating the 3rd-most receiving yards over expected (+76) and the most receptions for first downs (12) by any RB in that span (Weeks 10-15).
The Browns defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to generate a 35.6% completion percentage (6th-lowest), and 5.2 yards per attempt (5th-fewest) on extended dropbacks.
Eagles (12-2, 6-1 Away) vs. Commanders (9-5, 5-2 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Eagles | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.4 (8th) | 28.3 (6th) |
Point Differential | +122 (3rd) | +81 (8th) |
Record in Close Games | 7-1 | 5-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 11.7 (12th) | 13.6 (7th) |
Turnover Differential | +3 (12th) | +5 (9th) |
Total Penalties | 88 (16th) | 87 (14th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: 222.1 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Saquon Barkley: 98.5 rush yards, 19.4 receiving yards
WR A.J. Brown: 4.6 receptions, 68.6 receiving yards
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels: 196.8 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Brian Robinson: 57.6 rush yards, 13.5 receiving yards
WR Terry McLaurin: 4.7 receptions, 66.8 receiving yards
Vikings (12-2, 5-1 Away) vs. Seahawks (8-6, 3-5 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on FOX
Category | Vikings | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.4 (8th) | 22.5 (14th) |
Point Differential | +117 (4th) | +2 (16th) |
Record in Close Games | 7-1 | 4-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.8 (14th) | 10.0 (17th) |
Turnover Differential | +8 (7th) | -5 (22nd) |
Total Penalties | 90 (20th) | 102 (25th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Seahawks are one of four teams to have 5 players with a pressure rate above 10% (min. 150 pass rushes) - Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, Dre’Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, and Leonard Williams.
Derick Hall has generated a team-leading 44 pressures, including 17 quick pressures, this season. Meanwhile, Boye Mafe has generated 36 pressures; his 13.7% pressure rate is the 2nd-highest of Seahawks defenders with at least 150 pass rushes.
Sam Darnold has faced zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate this season (76.8%). When targeting Jordan Addison in zone coverage, Darnold has thrown 5 touchdowns (tied 3rd-most) and generated +36.9 EPA, the 4th-most among QB-WR duos.
Jaguars (3-11, 1-6 Away) vs. Raiders (2-12, 1-5 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Jaguars | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.8 (26th) | 17.5 (29th) |
Point Differential | -114 (27th) | -131 (31st) |
Record in Close Games | 2-8 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.7 (24th) | 3.5 (31st) |
Turnover Differential | -13 (29th) | -19 (32nd) |
Total Penalties | 80 (3rd) | 83 (8th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jaguars
QB Mac Jones: 204.8 pass yards, 1.2 pass TD
RB Travis Etienne: 39.3 rush yards, 20.0 receiving yards
WR Brian Thomas Jr.: 4.7 receptions, 63.7 receiving yards
Raiders
QB Aidan O’Connell: 201.0 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Alexander Mattison: 39.0 rush yards, 20.3 receiving yards
WR Jakobi Meyers: 5.7 receptions, 63.8 receiving yards
49ers (6-8, 2-4 Away) vs. Dolphins (6-8, 4-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | 49ers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.4 (15th) | 19.7 (24th) |
Point Differential | -6 (18th) | -36 (20th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 4-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.7 (9th) | 9.3 (19th) |
Turnover Differential | -4 (20th) | -5 (22nd) |
Total Penalties | 82 (7th) | 93 (23rd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Dolphins have totaled -257 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the fewest in the NFL. They have managed to generate positive RYOE on designed run plays in just three games this season, a sharp drop compared to 12 games last season.
Tua Tagovailoa ranks top 5 in both yards per attempt (7.1) and EPA per dropback (+0.25) on quick passes this season. The 49ers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards (1,079) against quick passes this season.
Brock Purdy has averaged the 3rd-most yards per attempt (11.1) and generated the 5th-most EPA per dropback (+0.38) on play action passes this season. The Dolphins defense has allowed the 10th-most passing yards (945) and the 2nd-most EPA per dropback (+0.33) against play action passes this season.
Buccaneers (8-6, 5-2 Away) vs. Cowboys (6-8, 1-6 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Buccaneers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.8 (4th) | 21.3 (19th) |
Point Differential | +77 (9th) | -82 (25th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-4 | 4-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.8 (2nd) | 9.2 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (18th) | -5 (22nd) |
Total Penalties | 85 (9th) | 104 (29th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield: 257.7 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Bucky Irving: 65.5 rush yards, 18.2 receiving yards
WR Mike Evans: 4.7 receptions, 70.6 receiving yards
Cowboys
QB Cooper Rush: 234.6 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Rico Dowdle: 61.7 rush yards, 20.3 receiving yards
WR CeeDee Lamb: 6.5 receptions, 70.8 receiving yards
Saints (5-9, 2-4 Away) vs. Packers (10-4, 5-2 Home)
Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN
Category | Saints | Packers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.1 (17th) | 27.1 (7th) |
Point Differential | -3 (17th) | +92 (5th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 5-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 17.8 (1st) | 11.2 (13th) |
Turnover Differential | +1 (16th) | +10 (5th) |
Total Penalties | 85 (9th) | 94 (24th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Saints
QB Spencer Rattler: 185.6 pass yards, 0.9 pass TD
RB Alvin Kamara: 70.7 rush yards, 28.8 receiving yards
TE Juwan Johnson: 2.9 receptions, 32.0 receiving yards
Packers
QB Jordan Love: 252.1 pass yards, 1.9 pass TD
RB Josh Jacobs: 83.2 rush yards, 19.3 receiving yards
WR Romeo Doubs: 3.9 receptions 48.4 receiving yards
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