NFL Week 18 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings
A lot is still on the line in Week 18 in the NFL. These are the scenarios for teams that still have something to play for:
AFC
Ravens: Win the AFC North with a win, tie or Steelers loss
Steelers: Win the AFC North with a win + a Ravens loss
Broncos: Clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Bengals loss or tie + Dolphins loss or tie
Dolphins: Clinch a playoff berth with a win + a Broncos loss
Bengals: Clinch a playoff berth with a win, a Broncos loss + a Miami loss or tie
NFC
Lions and Vikings: Clinch the No. 1 seed and NFC North with a win
Buccaneers: Win the NFC South with a win or an Atlanta loss or tie
Falcons: Win the NFC South with a win + a Buccaneers loss
Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Browns (3-13, 1-7 Away) vs. Ravens (11-5, 5-2 Home)
Saturday, 4:30pm on ESPN
Category | Browns | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 15.5 (32nd) | 30.2 (3rd) |
Point Differential | -152 (31st) | +132 (4th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-4 | 5-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 5.0 (31st) | 14.0 (7th) |
Turnover Differential | -20 (32nd) | +4 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 116 (26th) | 122 (30th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Lamar Jackson has recorded the highest passer rating (98.1), most yards per attempt (7.8), and most EPA (-3.2) of any quarterback when under pressure this season, generating the 2nd-highest success rate (38.4%) on such passes.
The Ravens defense has allowed just 0.8 yards before contact per carry on designed runs (6th-fewest), and just 2.7 yards after contact per carry (2nd-fewest).
The Browns have recorded just a 10.1% explosive play rate this season, the lowest in the NFL. They have recorded bottom-three explosive play rates when passing (10.7%, 2nd-lowest) and rushing (8.9%, 3rd-lowest).
Bengals (8-8, 5-3 Away) vs. Steelers (10-6, 5-2 Home)
Saturday, 8pm on ESPN
Category | Bengals | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.3 (6th) | 22.7 (14th) |
Point Differential | 36 (12th) | +35 (13th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-7 | 6-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.6 (15th) | 9.6 (17th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (13th) | +15 (2nd) |
Total Penalties | 95 (8th) | 99 (12th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Bengals
QB Joe Burrow: 278.9 pass yards, 2.1 pass TD
RB Chase Brown: 66.0 rush yards, 19.8 receiving yards
WR Ja’Marr Chase: 7.1 receptions, 96.5 receiving yards
Steelers
QB Russell Wilson: 232.4 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Jaylen Warren: 41.4 rush, 22.8 receiving yards
WR George Pickens: 4.8 receptions, 70.2 receiving yards
Panthers (4-12, 1-6 Away) vs. Falcons (8-8, 4-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Panthers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.6 (25th) | 21.9 (16th) |
Point Differential | -199 (32nd) | -28 (20th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-3 | 6-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.0 (29th) | 8.9 (22nd) |
Turnover Differential | -6 (22nd) | -5 (19th) |
Total Penalties | 116 (26th) | 92 (6th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Since returning as a starter in Week 8, Bryce Young has thrown 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions when under pressure, tied with Lamar Jackson for the most touchdowns without an interception during that span. In those weeks, Young has also thrown for 8.3 yards per attempt (2nd-most)
Michael Penix Jr. has completed 11 of his 14 passes for 154 yards against cover 3 since becoming the starter in Week 16 this season.
Since entering the league in 2023, Bijan Robinson has generated 1,019 yards after forcing missed tackles, one of only two players over 1,000 such yards during that span (Derrick Henry, 1,146). Robinson has forced a league-high 190 missed tackles, 15 more than 2nd-place Henry.
Commanders (11-5, 4-3 Away) vs. Cowboys (7-9, 2-6 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Commanders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 28.9 (5th) | 20.7 (21st) |
Point Differential | +90 (9th) | -114 (27th) |
Record in Close Games | 7-4 | 5-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 11.9 (13th) | 8.1 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | +2 (15th) | -7 (24th) |
Total Penalties | 106 (20th) | 117 (29th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Terry McLaurin has generated career-highs in catch percentage at 70.5% and receptions over expected with +12.6 while averaging his 2nd-most air yards per target with 14.1 this season.
Cooper Rush has been most effective against man coverage, throwing 10 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions for a passer rating of 107.3, the 9th-highest in the league this season. Against zone coverage Rush has thrown 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Tyler Smith has allowed only 21 pressures and 2 sacks across 517 pass blocking snaps at left guard this season, resulting in a 4.1% pressure rate, the lowest among left guards with at least 200 pass blocking snaps.
Bears (4-12, 0-7 Away) vs. Packers (11-5, 6-2 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 17.9 (29th) | 27.4 (8th) |
Point Differential | -62 (23rd) | +124 (5th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-7 | 5-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.5 (6th) | 13.3 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | +8 (9th) | +12 (3rd) |
Total Penalties | 103 (16th) | 107 (23rd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Packers have allowed a 9.7% lower completion percentage with Jaire Alexander on the field (61.0%) compared to when he is not (70.7%) this season. Opposing quarterbacks have also thrown for just 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions when Alexander is on the field, recording a 77.5 passer rating.
Josh Jacobs has totaled 1,285 yards and 14 touchdowns on 295 carries this season, recording 1,053 of his yards after contact, 3rd-most in the NFL. Jacobs has also generated +202 rushing yards over expected this season.
Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 67 times this season, losing -121.9 EPA on such plays, -23 more than the next closest quarterback (C.J. Stroud, -98.9).
Jaguars (4-12, 1-7 Away) vs. Colts (7-9, 4-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Jaguars | Colts |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.6 (25th) | 21.9 (16th) |
Point Differential | -112 (26th) | -53 (22nd) |
Record in Close Games | 3-9 | 7-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.5 (26th) | 3.9 (32nd) |
Turnover Differential | -14 (29th) | -5 (19th) |
Total Penalties | 95 (8th) | 90 (30th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Colts offense has allowed a 37.8% pressure rate this season, the 8th-highest in the NFL. Joe Flacco has been pressured on 33.9% of his dropbacks this season, 6.9% lower than Anthony Richardson’s 40.8% pressure rate.
Brian Thomas Jr. has recorded 9 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns on deep passes (20+ air yards) this season, leading all rookies in deep receiving yards. His 404 receiving yards is the most by a rookie since Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 (537) and is the 7th-most among all receivers in the NFL this season.
While Mac Jones has befitted from good pass protection he has averaged only 6.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, the 3rd-fewest in the league.
Bills (13-3, 5-3 Away) vs. Patriots (3-13, 1-6 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Bills | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 31.8 (2nd) | 16.6 (30th) |
Point Differential | +164 (2nd) | -135 (28th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-2 | 2-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.9 (5th) | 8.3 (23rd) |
Turnover Differential | +23 (1st) | -10 (28th) |
Total Penalties | 106 (20th) | 104 (18th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
James Cook has recorded +128 rushing yards over expected and 6.1 yards per carry against light boxes this season, both the 4th-most among running backs (min. 50 such carries).
Drake Maye is just 1 of 2 quarterbacks to have gained positive EPA (+0.2) on tight window targets this season (Lamar Jackson). Maye has thrown into a tight window (less than 1 yard of separation) on 15.4% of his pass attempts this season, slightly over the league average (14.8%).
Austin Hooper leads the Patriots with +90 receiving yards over expected and +58 yards after the catch over expected this season.
Giants (3-13, 2-5 Away) vs. Eagles (13-3, 7-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Giants | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 16.2 (31st) | 27.7 (7th) |
Point Differential | -135 (28th) | +153 (3rd) |
Record in Close Games | 1-7 | 7-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.0 (20th) | 13.4 (9th) |
Turnover Differential | -7 (24th) | +10 (6th) |
Total Penalties | 106 (20th) | 102 (14th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Malik Nabers has totaled 580 receiving yards on underneath targets (less than 10 air yards) this season, the 8th-most in the NFL and most by a rookie WR. In Week 17 against the Colts, Nabers caught 5 of 6 underneath targets for 118 yards and 2 TD.
Since Kayvon Thibodeaux returned from injury in Week 12, he has generated 20 pressures on 158 pass rushes (12.7%) while Brian Burns has generated 21 pressures on 142 pass rushes (14.8%). They are one of four sets of teammates who have recorded at least 20 pressures apiece in that span.
Nakobe Dean has generated 53 run stops (tackles for negative EPA) this season while Zack Baun has generated 51, giving them the T-5th-most and 8th-most in the league, respectively. They are the only two players this season to record 50 run stops after entering the season with fewer than 50 in their careers.
Saints (5-11, 2-5 Away) vs. Buccaneers (9-7, 4-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Saints | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 19.9 (23rd) | 29.7 (4th) |
Point Differential | -52 (21st) | +109 (7th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-5 | 2-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 17.8 (1st) | 17.8 (1st) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (17th) | -4 (18th) |
Total Penalties | 102 (14th) | 96 (10th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Buccaneers have generated the 6th-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (36.4%) and the highest since Week 12 (41.8%).
Buccaneers running backs have averaged the 2nd-most yards per carry (5.0) and recorded the 4th-highest rushing success rate (47.0%) on carries out of condensed formations under first-year OC Liam Coen this season.
Spencer Rattler completed 7 of 12 passes outside the pocket for 111 yards in Week 6 against the Buccaneers, the 2nd-most such yards in a game by a Saints quarterback since 2016.
Texans (9-7, 4-4 Away) vs. Titans (3-13, 1-6 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.8 (18th) | 18.6 (25th) |
Point Differential | -9 (17th) | -140 (30th) |
Record in Close Games | 7-5 | 2-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 8.1 (24th) | 9.0 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | +9 (8th) | -17 (31st) |
Total Penalties | 113 (25th) | 125 (31st) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Texans running backs have been stuffed for no gain or a loss on 23.2% of their carries this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
The Texans defense has generated the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (38.1%), and they have allowed the lowest completion percentage (40.1%) on pressured dropbacks.
Calvin Ridley leads the Titans with 33 receptions, 756 yards and 4 touchdowns on downfield targets (10+ air yards) this season. All other Titans receivers have combined for 36 receptions, 799 yards and 9 touchdowns on such targets.
49ers (6-10, 2-5 Away) vs. Cardinals (7-9, 5-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | 49ers | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 22.8 (13th) | 22.1 (15th) |
Point Differential | -24 (19th) | -2 (15th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-6 | 3-5 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 12.7 (12th) | 13.3 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | -7 (24th) | -6 (22nd) |
Total Penalties | 98 (11th) | 91 (4th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The 49ers have used 21 personnel at the highest rate in the league (35.5%), 4.3% more than the next closest team (Dolphins, 31.2%) and more than five times the league average (6.3%).
Trey McBride caught his first touchdown pass of the season in Week 17, catching 12 passes for 123 yards. Prior to Week 17, McBride had the most yards (958) without a touchdown among tight ends through Week 16 in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
George Kittle has generated +124 receiving yards over expected on downfield passes (10+ air yards), the most among tight ends this season.
Chiefs (15-1, 7-1 Away) vs. Broncos (9-7, 5-2 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 24.1 (11th) | 24.2 (10th) |
Point Differential | +97 (8th) | +76 (11th) |
Record in Close Games | 11-0 | 1-6 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 7.1 (27th) | 15.8 (3rd) |
Turnover Differential | +6 (11th) | +5 (12th) |
Total Penalties | 91 (4th) | 103 (16th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Chiefs have averaged just 5.0 yards per play without Patrick Mahomes since 2018, compared to 6.3 yards per play with him. That 1.3 yard per play drop off is the largest for any QB that has missed at least 200 snaps since 2018.
The Broncos gained 4.5 yards per carry on designed runs between the tackles in Weeks 16-17, compared to only 3.5 yards per carry on such runs in Weeks 8-15.
Zach Allen has generated 65 pressures this season, 9th-most in the NFL and most among defensive tackles.
Seahawks (9-7, 6-1 Away) vs. Rams (10-6, 5-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Seahawks | Rams |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.6 (19th) | 21.4 (20th) |
Point Differential | +2 (14th) | -14 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-2 | 8-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.2 (19th) | 5.9 (30th) |
Turnover Differential | -7 (24th) | +7 (10th) |
Total Penalties | 116 (26th) | 89 (1st) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Geno Smith has aligned in the shotgun on 89.9% of his dropbacks this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. Smith has recorded the 2nd-most passing yards (3,729), and the 2nd-highest completion percentage (70.9%) out of shotgun formations, but has thrown a league-high 14 interceptions.
The Rams generated season-highs in pressures (26), pressure rate (59.1%) and sacks (7) in Week 9 against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have allowed 1,422 passing yards (3rd-most), 11 touchdowns (T-most), and a 56.4% success rate (3rd-highest) to opposing quarterbacks on play action passes this season.
Chargers (10-6, 5-3 Away) vs. Raiders (4-12, 2-5 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on CBS
Category | Chargers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.0 (12th) | 18.1 (28th) |
Point Differential | +87 (10th) | -111 (25th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 3-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 13.8 (8th) | 6.8 (28th) |
Turnover Differential | +11 (4th) | -15 (30th) |
Total Penalties | 89 (1st) | 93 (7th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
The Raiders defense has surprisingly generated a higher-pressure rate with Maxx Crosby off the field this season (42.6%) than with him on the field (31.1%). Since losing Crosby to injury in Week 14, the Raiders have blitzed 13.6% less.
J.K. Dobbins returned from injury in Week 17 against the Patriots and recorded 76 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Dobbins generated 69 of his yards after contact aided by a career-high 9 forced missed tackles and a 47.4% missed tackles forced rate.
Ladd McConkey has recorded the 2nd-most receiving yards (706) and the most receiving yards over expected (+151) when aligned in the slot this season.
Dolphins (8-8, 3-5 Away) vs. Jets (4-12, 2-5 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.3 (22nd) | 19.1 (24th) |
Point Differential | -7 (16th) | -78 (24th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 3-7 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 10.6 (15th) | 10.8 (14th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (16th) | -5 (19th) |
Total Penalties | 110 (24th) | 131 (32nd) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Dolphins
QB Tua Tagovailoa: 224.3 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB De’Von Achane: 54.3 rush yards, 32.2 receiving yards
WR Tyreek Hill: 4.6 receptions, 63.0 receiving yards
Jets
QB Aaron Rodgers: 221.0 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD
RB Breece Hall: 60.0 rush yards, 23.1 receiving yards
WR Davante Adams: 5.4 receptions, 70.0 receiving yards
Vikings (14-2, 6-1 Away) vs. Lions (14-2, 6-2 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Vikings | Lions |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 26.4 (9th) | 33.3 (1st) |
Point Differential | +122 (6th) | +200 (1st) |
Record in Close Games | 9-1 | 7-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.6 (17th) | 15.0 (4th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (6th) | +11 (4th) |
Total Penalties | 104 (18th) | 99 (12th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Vikings
QB Sam Darnold: 263.5 pass yards, 2.1 pass TD
RB Aaron Jones: 69.4 rush yards, 22.2 receiving yards
WR Justin Jefferson: 5.7 receptions, 88.0 receiving yards
Lions
QB Jared Goff: 259.4 pass yards, 2.1 pass TD
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 93.0 rush yards, 29.6 receiving yards
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6.8 receptions, 75.4 receiving yards
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