NFL Week 9 Projected Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Stats
The Lions vs. Packers and Broncos vs. Ravens headline Week 9 in the NFL, and the Steelers and 49ers have byes. Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Texans (6-2, 2-2 Away) vs. Jets (2-6, 1-2 Home)
Thursday, 8:15pm on Prime
Category | Texans | Jets |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.5 (14th) | 18.8 (25th) |
Point Differential | +9 (15th) | -20 (20th) |
Record in Close Games | 5-1 | 1-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.3 (26th) | 14.0 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (8th) | -3 (21st) |
Total Penalties | 61 (28th) | 63 (30th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
C.J. Stroud has been under pressure on 40.7% of his dropbacks this season (4th-highest in the NFL). Stroud leads the league with 741 passing yards when under pressure, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt (7th-most in league). The Jets have recorded the 6th-highest pressure rate in the league this season (38.3%) and have allowed the lowest success rate when causing pressure (22.8%).
The Jets have utilized empty formations on a league-high 14.0% of offensive snaps since Todd Downing took over as offensive coordinator in Week 6, nearly double their empty formation rate through the first five weeks (7.6%, 15th in NFL).
The Texans have increased their tight end usage since Week 6 (Nico Collins placed on IR following Week 5). Since Week 6, the Texans have used 12 personnel on 42.6% of offensive plays (2nd-highest in NFL) after using 12 personnel on 30.4% of plays in the first 5 weeks of the season.
Cowboys (3-4, 3-1 Away) vs. Falcons (5-3, 2-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Cowboys | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.4 (22nd) | 24.2 (12th) |
Point Differential | -48 (24th) | -1 (17th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-2 | 4-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 8.0 (22nd) | 6.4 (25th) |
Turnover Differential | -8 (30th) | 0 (15th) |
Total Penalties | 53 (22nd) | 49 (13th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Cowboys
QB Dak Prescott: 250.5 pass yards, 1.9 pass TD
RB Rico Dowdle: 43.1 rush yards, 14.5 receiving yards
WR CeeDee Lamb: 6.7 receptions, 85.1 receiving yards
Falcons
QB Kirk Cousins: 250.9 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Bijan Robinson: 74.0 rush yards, 27.7 receiving yards
WR Drake London: 5.9 receptions, 77.0 receiving yards
Dolphins (2-5, 1-2 Away) vs. Bills (6-2, 3-0 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Dolphins | Bills |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 13.9 (32nd) | 28.8 (5th) |
Point Differential | -60 (28th) | +84 (2nd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-2 | 2-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 4.0 (31st) | 18.7 (3rd) |
Turnover Differential | -3 (21st) | +11 (1st) |
Total Penalties | 51 (20th) | 53 (22nd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Keon Coleman has caught 21 of his 34 passes for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns this season, generating the 5th-most receiving yards over expected in the NFL (+136). Coleman’s +136 recYOE is also the 3rd-most by any rookie wide receiver through the first eight weeks since 2018, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase (+357) and Justin Jefferson (+218).
The Bills have allowed 5.0 yards per attempt on quick downfield passes this season, 5th-fewest in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 27.8% of these attempts against the Bills, the lowest completion percentage in the NFL.
The Dolphins have allowed opposing defenses to generate the 7th-lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (27.8%).
Broncos (5-3, 3-1 Away) vs. Ravens (5-3, 2-1 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Broncos | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.6 (20th) | 30.2 (2nd) |
Point Differential | +53 (5th) | +33 (12th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-3 | 3-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.6 (8th) | 9.6 (17th) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (15th) | +2 (11th) |
Total Penalties | 54 (24th) | 63 (30th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Broncos
QB Bo Nix: 195.2 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Javonte Williams: 49.5 rush yards, 20.3 receiving yards
WR Courtland Sutton: 4.1 receptions, 54.0 receiving yards
Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson: 242.1 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Derrick Henry: 93.1 rush yards, 8.4 receiving yards
WR Zay Flowers: 5.4 receptions, 62.2 receiving yards
Chargers (4-3, 2-2 Away) vs. Browns (2-6, 1-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Chargers | Browns |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.9 (24th) | 17.2 (27th) |
Point Differential | +41 (10th) | -48 (24th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-2 | 2-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.0 (7th) | 5.0 (28th) |
Turnover Differential | +6 (5th) | -4 (25th) |
Total Penalties | 38 (3rd) | 67 (32nd) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Justin Herbert has targeted past the sticks on 41.0% of his pass attempts since the Chargers Week 5 bye, compared to 29.7% prior. Herbert has increased his average air yards per attempt from 7.0 before the bye to 8.3 since. Herbert also has been more successful on downfield passing since the bye, completing 22 of 26 attempts over 10 air yards (+9.8% CPOE) compared to 8 of 24 prior to the bye (-17.0% CPOE).
Myles Garrett leads the league with 21 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) this season, while having recorded the 3rd-highest pressure rate of all pass rushers (20.7%, min. 100 pass rushes).
Ladd McConkey has recorded 238 receiving yards against man coverage this season, 2nd-most among rookie wide receivers.
Saints (2-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Panthers (1-7, 0-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on CBS
Category | Saints | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.1 (17th) | 15.5 (29th) |
Point Differential | -21 (21st) | -147 (32nd) |
Record in Close Games | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 31.0 (1st) | 14.0 (10th) |
Turnover Differential | +2 (11th) | -6 (29th) |
Total Penalties | 48 (12th) | 56 (26th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Saints
QB Derek Carr: 222.0 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Alvin Kamara: 74.9 rush yards, 30.6 receiving yards
WR Chris Olave: 5.9 receptions, 77.5 receiving yards
Panthers
RB Chuba Hubbard: 53.1 rush yards, 14.4 receiving yards
WR Diontae Johnson: 4.8 receptions, 57.9 receiving yards
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders: 2.0 receptions, 22.3 receiving yards
Raiders (2-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Bengals (3-5, 0-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Raiders | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 18.0 (26th) | 24.4 (10th) |
Point Differential | -66 (29th) | -8 (19th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-2 | 1-4 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 3.5 (32nd) | 9.0 (19th) |
Turnover Differential | -13 (31st) | 0 (15th) |
Total Penalties | 47 (10th) | 34 (1st) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Raiders
RB Alexander Mattison: 51.9 rush yards, 20.0 receiving yards
WR Jakobi Meyers: 5.3 receptions, 59.6 receiving yards
TE Brock Bowers: 5.3 receptions, 58.1 receiving yards
Bengals
QB Joe Burrow: 262.6 pass yards, 2.0 pass TDs
RB Chase Brown: 47.0 rush yards, 19.8 receiving yards
WR Ja’Marr Chase: 6.5 receptions, 83.9 receiving yards
Commanders (6-2, 2-2 Away) vs. Giants (2-6, 0-4 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Commanders | Giants |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 29.5 (3rd) | 14.6 (31st) |
Point Differential | +69 (3rd) | -58 (27th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-1 | 1-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.5 (5th) | 7.5 (23rd) |
Turnover Differential | +4 (8th) | -3 (21st) |
Total Penalties | 49 (13th) | 47 (10th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels: 203.1 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Brian Robinson: 56.3 rush yards, 14.0 receiving yards
WR Terry McLaurin: 5.2 receptions, 67.0 receiving yards
Giants
QB Daniel Jones: 226.7 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 52.8 rush yards, 12.9 receiving yards
WR Malik Nabers: 6.1 receptions, 75.6 receiving yards
Patriots (2-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Titans (1-6, 0-3 Home)
Sunday, 1pm on FOX
Category | Patriots | Titans |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 15.5 (29th) | 17.1 (28th) |
Point Differential | -73 (30th) | -76 (31st) |
Record in Close Games | 2-2 | 0-3 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 4.5 (29th) | 19.0 (2nd) |
Turnover Differential | -1 (19th) | -13 (31st) |
Total Penalties | 49 (13th) | 50 (16th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Patriots
QB Drake Maye: 181.6 pass yards, 1.0 pass TD
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 52.3 rush yards, 18.1 receiving yards
WR Demario Douglas: 4.1 receptions, 44.5 receiving yards
Titans
RB Tony Pollard: 61.6 rush yards, 15.1 receiving yards
WR Calvin Ridley: 3.6 receptions, 51.9 receiving yards
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo: 2.1 receptions, 21.6 receiving yards
Bears (4-3, 0-3 Away) vs. Cardinals (4-4, 2-2 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on CBS
Category | Bears | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 23.3 (16th) | 22.2 (18th) |
Point Differential | +44 (9th) | -27 (22nd) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 14.5 (9th) | 8.8 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | +5 (6th) | +1 (13th) |
Total Penalties | 46 (8th) | 39 (4th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
James Conner has forced a league-high 54 missed tackles this season, including 41 missed tackles on the ground (3rd-most). Conner has recorded 557 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 129 carries this season, generating +46 rushing yards over expected (18th in NFL).
Cole Kmet has caught 27 of his 30 targets for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns this season, generating +19.5 receiving EPA (3rd-most among tight ends). Kmet has also recorded +4.2 receptions over expected this season.
The Bears have only generated a 40.8% pressure rate on their blitzes this season (13th-lowest in the NFL), but even without pressure, opposing quarterbacks have recorded an 85.5 passer rating against Bears blitzes (5th-lowest in the NFL).
Jaguars (2-6, 0-4 Away) vs. Eagles (5-2, 2-1 Home)
Sunday, 4:05pm on CBS
Category | Jaguars | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.5 (21st) | 24.4 (10th) |
Point Differential | -52 (26th) | +39 (11th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-4 | 3-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 9.5 (18th) | 11.4 (16th) |
Turnover Differential | -5 (28th) | -4 (25th) |
Total Penalties | 50 (16th) | 43 (6th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Jaguars
QB Trevor Lawrence: 210.7 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD
RB Travis Etienne: 36.1 rush yards, 21.2 receiving yards
TE Evan Engram: 4.8 receptions, 46.3 receiving yards
Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: 226.9 receiving yards
RB Saquon Barkley: 85.3 rush yards, 20.4 receiving yards
WR A.J. Brown: 5.5 receptions, 83.3 receiving yards
Lions (6-1, 3-0 Away) vs. Packers (6-2, 3-1 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 33.4 (1st) | 27.0 (6th) |
Point Differential | +100 (1st) | +46 (8th) |
Record in Close Games | 3-1 | 4-2 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 17.3 (4th) | 8.8 (20th) |
Turnover Differential | +10 (2nd) | +7 (4th) |
Total Penalties | 50 (16th) | 57 (27th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Lions
QB Jared Goff: 215.0 pass yards, 2.0 pass TD
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 61.3 rush yards, 24.8 receiving yards
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6.8 receptions, 75.0 receiving yards
Packers
QB Jordan Love: 231.9 pass yards, 1.7 pass TD
RB Josh Jacobs: 66.2 rush yards, 16.7 receiving yards
WR Jayden Reed: 4.2 receptions, 52.3 receiving yards
Rams (3-4, 0-3 Away) vs. Seahawks (4-4, 2-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX
Category | Rams | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 20.6 (23rd) | 23.8 (13th) |
Point Differential | -30 (23rd) | -5 (18th) |
Record in Close Games | 2-3 | 2-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 6.0 (27th) | 12.5 (13th) |
Turnover Differential | 0 (15th) | -4 (25th) |
Total Penalties | 36 (2nd) | 62 (29th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
D.K. Metcalf has recorded a league-high 489 receiving yards on 27 receptions against off coverage this season, including 3 touchdowns. Metcalf has averaged a career-high 12.1 yards per target against off coverage, and has faced off coverage on a career-high 65.8% of his routes this season.
Both Jared Verse (21.2%) and Byron Young (16.7%) have top 13 pressure rates among all players with at least 100 pass rushes this season, with Verse having the 2nd-highest pressure rate league-wide.
The Rams have faced press coverage at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL (17.7%), while Cooper Kupp has been pressed on just 11.0% of his routes since 2023, the 5th-lowest rate (min. 400 routes).
Colts (4-4, 1-3 Away) vs. Vikings (5-2, 3-1 Home)
Sunday, 8:20pm on NBC
Category | Colts | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 21.9 (19th) | 26.9 (7th) |
Point Differential | +3 (16th) | +51 (6th) |
Record in Close Games | 4-4 | 3-1 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 4.2 (30th) | 12.6 (12th) |
Turnover Differential | +1 (13th) | +5 (6th) |
Total Penalties | 43 (6th) | 54 (24th) |
Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Colts
QB Anthony Richardson: 182.3 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD
RB Jonathan Taylor: 75.3 rush yards, 14.1 receiving yards
WR Michael Pittman: 4.1 receptions, 48.0 receiving yards
Vikings
QB Sam Darnold: 257.9 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD
RB Aaron Jones: 68.0 rush yards, 21.7 receiving yards
WR Justin Jefferson: 5.7 receptions, 88.6 receiving yards
Buccaneers (4-4, 2-1 Away) vs. Chiefs (7-0, 3-0 Home)
Monday, 8:15pm on ESPN
Category | Buccaneers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
Points per Game | 29.4 (4th) | 24.7 (9th) |
Point Differential | +22 (14th) | +50 (7th) |
Record in Close Games | 1-2 | 5-0 |
Av. Margin of Victory | 15.5 (5th) | 7.1 (24th) |
Turnover Differential | -2 (20th) | -3 (21st) |
Total Penalties | 50 (16th) | 39 (4th) |
Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:
Baker Mayfield has completed 168 of 206 pass attempts under 10 air yards, generating league-highs in yards (1,525), touchdowns (14), and EPA per dropback (+0.30) on short pass attempts.
The Chiefs have generated +0.24 EPA per carry and a 60.0% success rate on designed runs into stacked boxes (8+ defenders in the box), leading the lead in both categories. The Buccaneers have stacked the box on 36.2% of designed runs faced, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
Cade Otton has generated +3.0 receptions over expected over the past two games, the most over a two-week stretch by any tight end this season.
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