Can Playoff Brunson Return for Playoff-Like NBA Cup + NFL Futures

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at NBA team futures

• NBA: Knicks give up the fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers (12.5)

• NCAAM: St. John’s is 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread at home

• NFL Futures: Do the Vikings have a schedule advantage in NFC North?

• Soccer: Barcelona has 18 goals in just five Champions League matches

• Overtime: Four NFL teams can clinch playoff spots this week

The NBA has a light slate tonight to ensure the two NBA Cup matchups have no competition, so we’re using the opportunity to take a look at some NBA futures (odds via FanDuel):

• Regular Season Wins

  • Hawks (41.5): Over +106, Under -130

  • Celtics (61.5): Over +106, Under -130

  • Hornets (26.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • Warriors (48.5): Over +102, Under -124

  • Lakers (43.4): Over -102, Under -120

  • Heat (44.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • Suns (47.5): Over -110, Under -110

• Eastern Conference Champion: Celtics (-105), Knicks (+500), Cavaliers (+550), Bucks (+1100), Magic (+1300)

• Western Conference Champion: Thunder (+185), Mavericks (+600), Nuggets (+700), Suns (+900), Warriors (+950), Timberwolves (+1000)

• NBA Champion: Celtics (+200), Thunder (+400), Knicks (+1100), Mavericks (+1300), Cavaliers (+1400), Nuggets (+1600)

In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering the final two NBA Cup quarterfinal games, Craig has the men’s college basketball slate, Sam is tracking more Champions League action, and Chris looks at some NFL futures.

And our NFL Week 15 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings is up on the website now.

— Abe Rakov

Rockets Rank 28th in Points Allowed a Game to Point Guards (26.2), Face Curry in NBA Cup

By Jack Dougherty

Jalen Brunson over 34.5 points + assists (-120 at FanDuel)
The NBA Cup is the closest you can get to a playoff game, so it’s time for playoff Brunson to reintroduce himself. The Knicks point guard averaged 32.4 points and 7.5 assists per game in the postseason last year. This is also a golden matchup against Trae Young and the Hawks. Atlanta ranks 25th in the NBA in points allowed per game to point guards (25.9) and 23rd in total assists allowed per game (27.6). The Hawks play at the third-fastest pace in the league, which will give Brunson more opportunities to stuff the stat sheet.

Clint Capela under 8.5 rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
Capela is a useful weapon against bruising centers, but he’s at a huge disadvantage against big men like Karl-Anthony Towns that like to step out and operate from the perimeter. Towns dropped 34 points and 16 rebounds against Capela and the Hawks earlier this season, so head coach Quin Snyder might opt for more small ball this time around. New York gives up the fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers (12.5), and Capela reeled in only six boards in the first matchup this year.

Mikal Bridges over 2.5 threes (+110 at DraftKings)
Bridges is shooting 34.3% from three this season, but he’s caught fire over the past few weeks. The Knicks forward is 24-56 (42.8%) from deep over his past seven games, chucking up 8.0 threes per game in that span. That volume shouldn’t slow down against a Hawks defense that can’t defend the three-point arc. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game (16.0) and 29th in threes allowed per game to small forwards (3.6).

Warriors vs. Rockets under 223.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
These two teams faced off just six days ago and they combined for just 192 points in a 99-93 Warriors win. That was a product of an extremely slow pace (94.4 possessions per 48 minutes). For reference, the Brooklyn Nets play at the slowest pace in the NBA at 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, as the Rockets and Warriors rank first and third, respectively, in opponent effective field-goal percentage. If they play anywhere close to the pace we saw last week, this total won’t come close to 224 in a playoff atmosphere. 

Alperen Sengun under 30.5 points + rebounds (-104 at FanDuel)
This is a curiously high line considering Sengun averages 29.1 points + rebounds per game this season and has a tough matchup ahead of him against Draymond Green and the Warriors. In two games against the Warriors this year, Sengun put up just 24 points + rebounds in both matchups. The Rockets center is also nursing a knee injury, so even if he suits up, he won’t be operating at 100%. 

Stephen Curry 25+ points (-105 at FanDuel)
As good as the Rockets have been defensively this season, they struggle to contain opposing point guards. Houston ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed per game to point guards (26.2). Just in the past few weeks, the Rockets have given up 25 points to Anfernee Simons, 39 to Tyrese Maxey, 32 to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 22 to De’Aaron Fox and 22 to Bones Hyland. Curry will look to exploit Houston’s defensive weakness.

Atlanta Hawks (13-12, 6-6 Away) vs. New York Knicks (15-9, 8-3 Home)
7pm on ESPN

Golden State Warriors (14-9, 7-5 Away) vs. Houston Rockets (16-8, 9-3 Home)
9:30pm on TNT

Kentucky has Scored at Least 95 Points in 5 of 6 Games Against Mid-Majors

By Craig Williams

Kentucky over 94.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Kentucky’s killer offense is one of the primary reasons they’re so dominant at home. We’re expecting to see another high-scoring affair when Colgate visits tonight. The Wildcats are enjoying a nice run of success in spite of a loss at Clemson. They’ve scored at least 95 points in five of six games against mid-major competition this season. Colgate certainly plays a key role in our position, as we expect their lack of offensive efficiency to feed Kentucky’s suffocating defense — especially at home. And a team like Kentucky loves turning takeaways and poor possessions into easy buckets.

Kentucky -18.5 first half (-112 at FanDuel)
We’re staying in Lexington, where we expect the Wildcats to have their way offensively and defensively against the struggling Raiders. We like Kentucky to light up the scoreboard tonight, including a high-scoring first half. Colgate’s performance up to this point suggests they will be overmatched on Kentucky’s home floor. Results obviously aren’t made on paper, but it’s difficult to see where Colgate will find a foothold in this contest with offensive deficiencies that threaten to derail them early. Kentucky combines an uptempo pace with an efficient offense, plus they’ll have the crowd behind them at Rupp Arena.

Kadary Richmond over 9.5 assists + rebounds (-140 at FanDuel)
Starting from a macro standpoint, we’re looking at the Red Storm controlling this contest at home, where they’re 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. As we drill a bit deeper into their matchup with Bryant, we take a closer look at Richmond in particular. Richmond leads the Red Storm in minutes played and is third on the team in usage rate among regulars. His biggest strength is his versatility and ability to stuff the boxscore. He’s capable of racking up high totals in both rebounds — he’s collected at least eight boards in three games — and assists — he’s dished out at least seven dimes twice. And he’s gone over this number in seven of nine overall.

Dartmouth +17.5 (-110 at bet365)
Dartmouth enters tonight’s contest riding a three-game road cover streak, including winning outright against Boston College as 17-point underdogs. We’re not suggesting they’ll leave South Bend with a winning tally, but their defense combined with the Fighting Irish’s recent offensive form points to a tighter contest than expected on the surface. One can point to Dartmouth’s defense as a reason for its recent success against the spread. Their defensive efficiency improves on the road (0.988), and they’ll be tasked with corralling a Notre Dame squad that has produced a 0.960 offensive rating over its past three contests.

Dartmouth vs. Notre Dame under 139.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
We’re sticking with Notre Dame hosting Dartmouth and anticipating a low-scoring game. As we mentioned above, the Big Green are excelling defensively, both of late and on the road. They’ve stayed under in four of the past five while the Fighting Irish have remained under in three of their past four. Notre Dame is no slouch defensively, especially at home, where they’ve produced a 0.967 defensive rating at the Joyce Center. Some home cooking may do the Irish some good, but the Irish’s offensive struggles combined with Dartmouth’s stingy road defense combine to make the under attractive.

Eastern Kentucky under 64.5 points (-105 at ESPNBET)
We’re banking on Pitt’s defense being locked in at home, where they’re 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. This isn’t a spread pick, but their quality track record of home covers (albeit in a small sample) tells us that they’re not just winning, but they’re winning convincingly. Oddsmakers opened the Panthers as nearly 20-point favorites, suggesting a convincing victory is in the cards. If we’re going to buy into their home success up to this point, it’s not a leap to expect them to impose a stingy defense on the visiting Colonels. Pitt’s defense has slipped a bit over their past three games against Power Five competition, but they produce a suffocating 0.813 defensive rating at home.

UTEP under 64.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Louisville is 1-8 to the under and has remained below the total in six straight. That’s thanks in part to a sticky defense. The Cardinals were beaten down a bit over their past three games against ranked opponents — Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Duke — and bettors shouldn’t be surprised if they come out with a little extra juice and urgency as they look to stem their losing streak. In a scenario in which they do capture control of the game, we expect them to impose their defensive will on the Miners. The Cardinals may have been picked apart a bit by difficult competition, but they enter play with a 0.955 defensive efficiency at home. 

Can Rams Get to 10 Wins? Will Eagles Rest Saquon Barkley? We Look at Some Interesting Futures

By Chris Farley

49ers to make the playoffs (+1000 at DraftKings)
By now most bettors have given up on the 49ers, for good reason, but they still have an outside shot at the postseason. The best news is that the Seahawks, who currently hold a two-game lead in the NFC West on the 49ers, have four tough games remaining: vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, and @ LAR. Meanwhile Arizona is tied with San Francisco, and the Rams, who are ahead of the 49ers by just one win, are on the road the next two weeks and finish with two divisional matchups. Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, and Trent Williams are set to return soon, and Kyle Shanahan and company have made the playoffs in each of the past three years.

Derrick Henry most regular season rushing yards (+700 at FanDuel)
This bet is not likely to hit, but that doesn't mean it's not worth a sprinkle. The Eagles have a full three-game lead on the Commanders in the NFC East, and while they can still catch Detroit for the NFC's #1 seed, the Lions have shown no signs of slowing down. Saquon Barkley leads Henry by over 200 yards (1623 compared to Henry's 1407), but Philly finishes their season with two conceivable snoozers (DAL, NYG); how much will they want to risk an injury to Barkley? Henry and the Ravens face two of the worst run-defenses in the NFL to end their season (NYG, CLE), and they're still two games back in the AFC North. "King" Henry could get there.

Jared Goff to win MVP (+1700 at FanDuel)
First, this is ridiculous value for four weeks left. The Bills and Lions face off this Sunday in what should be one of the most entertaining contests of the year, but what happens if Allen craps the bed and Goff outperforms him? Josh Allen's season has been spectacular (3,033 pass yards, 416 rush yards, 32 total touchdowns), but so has Goff's (3,265 pass yards, 25 TDs, 78% completion rate). All season, Pro Football Focus has graded the Lions' offensive line as the best in the NFL, and almost every game is challenging, meaning Goff would look better than Allen if they won out (meanwhile, the Bills have DET, NYJ, and NE twice).

L.A. Rams over 9.5 wins (+160 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
Even though the market should be high on the Rams following their big win against the Bills, it's telling a different story. With seven wins entering Week 15, the Rams would need to win three out of their last four contests to win this wager. We don't think they'll get one this Thursday, but that doesn't mean they can't get to 10. Following San Francisco, a team they already beat once, the Rams battle the Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks, all very beatable teams. Matthew Stafford (3,303 yards, 19 touchdowns) is playing at a very high-level, and they have a championship head coach who's at his best in December. Count us in.

Steelers to win the Super Bowl (+2000 at DraftKings)
Beyond the statistics, something special is (again) going on in Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson (12 touchdowns, three interceptions in just seven games) feels like the perfect fit. Their defense is good in all areas (5th in opponent ppg, 2nd in opponent third down conversion rate, top-9 in opponent yards per run and pass), and they seem to always run the ball effectively when it matters. They also have a Super Bowl-winning coach who knows how to motivate his roster and create unparalleled team chemistry. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are eking by every week and other AFC programs cyclically collapse every year in the playoffs. Intrigued? So are we.

Vikings to win NFC North (+600 at FanDuel)
It's hard to imagine the Lions not winning the NFC North, but it's still possible. For starters, Detroit has a very tough remaining schedule: BUF, CHI, SF, MIN. Minnesota's final four isn't much better (CHI, SEA, GB, DET), but they match up well against their next three opponents. Chicago and Seattle have serious problems protecting their quarterback (ranked 32nd and 24th, respectively in sacks per game), and Jordan Love had issues, even at home, succeeding against Minnesota's aggressive defense in game one (three INTs). Coach Kevin O'Connell is building a great culture in Minneapolis, and at 11-2 it may all come down to Week 18. 

Manchester City has Scored in 10 of 11 Road Matches this Season

By Sam Farley

Barcelona to win against Dortmund (+114 at BetRivers)

• Barcelona have won their past four Champions League games, while Dortmund’s only UCL defeat this season came to another Spanish team, Real Madrid

• Barca are scoring goals for fun, with 18 in five Champions League games and 50 already in just 17 La Liga games

Robert Lewandowski to score (+115 at DraftKings)

• Barca striker Lewandowski is the Champions League’s top goalscorer with seven goals in five games and will relish a chance to face former club Dortmund (he scored 27 goals in 26 games for his previous club Bayern Munich against Dortmund)

• The Polish striker has scored 11 goals in his past 10 games in all competitions for Barcelona

Juventus vs. Manchester City: Both teams to score (-120 at Caesars) 

• Juventus have conceded five goals in five Champions League games this season, with only one game with a clean sheet — they’ve also scored seven times in that span (Man City have scored 13 goals in five Champions League games but conceded seven)

• Man City have scored in 10 of 11 games away from home this season, across all competitions, but they’ve only kept a clean sheet twice

In the News 

• Four teams can clinch spots in the NFL playoffs this week.

• Kiffin slams college football transfer portal opening up before the bowl season ends.

• The projected No. 1 pick of the 2026 NBA draft committed to play at BYU.

• Should we really be surprised about the NBA’s surprise teams to start the season?

• Three world records fell in the first day of the world swimming championships.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Juventus vs. Manchester City in a UCL matchup on Paramount+

• 7pm: Hawks vs. Knicks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals on ESPN

• 9pm: No. 18 Iowa State vs. No. 21 Iowa in women’s college basketball action on FS1

• 9:30pm: Warriors vs. Rockets on TNT in another NBA Cup quarterfinal

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