Sportmoney x PFF NFL Week 15 Rundown + NBA and College Basketball Analysis

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Rams ⬆️ 49ers ⬇️

• NBA: 76ers are 12-10 against the spread to the under

• Column: A few changes that could fix the CFP

• NCAAM: Indiana has won and covered their past four games

• Golf: Looking ahead at some 2025 futures

• NFL: The Sportmoney x PFF Week 15 Rundown

• Overtime: College football transfer portal winners and losers

If you didn’t watch last night’s game between the Rams and 49ers, you missed six field goals, three of which came in the 4th quarter from the Rams’ Joshua Karty, and that’s it on offense. It’s the only NFL game so far this year without a touchdown.

LA’s 12-6 win all but eliminated San Fransisco from the playoffs. The 49ers started the year with odds ranging from -250 to -550 to make the postseason, but injuries ruined their chances. The Rams have turned their season around and are right in the middle of the playoff hunt. They’ve won seven of their past nine games after a 1-4 start, and FanDuel has them at -110 to make the playoffs.

In today’s newsletter, Chris and Craig cover the NBA and Craig also has college basketball insights, Jack tracks golf futures, and Abby writes about the tweaks she would make to the CFP bracket.

We have the NFL covered too: Our Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown and Week 15 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings for every game are both on our website.

— Abe Rakov

Suns, Losers of 7 of 10, Expect Durant to Return to Face League’s 29th-Ranked Defense

By Chris Farley

76ers -6.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
At 24-25 games in, we're starting to finally know who these teams are. It hasn't looked promising for the Pacers or 76ers, but at least one is showing up lately. Indiana has lost four of their past five, while Philadelphia has won four out of their past five. The 76ers' big three — Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George — have all struggled: All three have shot between 40-41% from the floor, not exactly elite. Luckily for them, the Pacers have been dreadful (23rd in net rating, 19th on offense), and they're showing no signs of improvement. We’re looking at the home team, which finally found a groove in December.

76ers vs. Pacers under 227 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The 76ers aren't always a great watch. Ranking 26th offensively over their past seven contests and producing just 106.7 points per game, low-scoring affairs have become a common theme for Philadelphia — a roster that's 12-10 against the spread to the under. Meanwhile, the Pacers' offense ranks higher, but they've been terribly inconsistent and clunky, which has led to a 23rd-ranked -4.5-point scoring differential. At home the 76ers run at an even slower tempo, which says a lot considering that they're 29th overall in pace. If Philly controls this game like the market expects, this number is far too high.

Suns -8 (-108 at DraftKings and BetOnline)
The biggest bit of news for this wager is that Kevin Durant, the Suns' best player, had a 90% practice (whatever that means), so we can anticipate that he'll suit up on Friday after missing the past three games. Without Durant, Phoenix hasn't looked refined, limited by above-average defenses (New Orleans, Miami, Orlando). Fortunately for the Suns, they'll be battling one of the NBA's worst defenses on Friday: Utah ranks 29th this season, allowing 118.7 ppg. After three straight losses, Phoenix needs a jolt, and we doubt Utah can stop them, especially with big-Kev back.

Suns team total over 119.5 points (-110 at BetOnline)
Even if the Suns don't cover on Friday, we feel great about their scoring chances. Phoenix's big-three hasn't been together much this season, just 10 out of 23 games, but even with an inconsistent lineup they've put up points. In their past seven games, they've averaged a healthy 115 points, even though Durant missed three contests and Beal missed one. Over the past month, they've faced almost exclusively above-average defenses, so Utah should feel akin to a high-school team by comparison. Expect the Suns to take advantage.

Nuggets -6.5 (-110 consensus)
It hasn't been easy sledding for the Nuggets. Just six days ago they lost straight up to the Wizards, the consensus worst program in the NBA. Sure, they were without Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray, but just two seasons ago Denver was hoisting up the Larry O'Brien trophy. Needless to say, it wasn't a good look. But when the market is low on a team with the same parts as it had in its championship era, we're compelled to give a second look. Plus, over their past five games, they rate as a top-7 offense (without Murray). The Clippers' defense has been sensational, but their offensive woes are real (108.7 ppg, 27th), Murray is back, and we see Denver pulling away at home.

Nikola Jokic under 31.5 points (-110 consensus)
Nikola Jokic's point-props are higher than ever but it's for good reason: The Serbian giant has scored 38, 48, and 56 in recent games, and injuries to Jamal Murray and other depth pieces have forced Jokic into carrying an above-average load. Denver will be healthier than they have been in a long time on Friday, and they're facing a Clippers' program that's predicated by defense, including an 8th ranking in opponent paint-points per game (46.3). Top-tier coach Ty Lue had five full days to prepare for this battle, and Jokic has eclipsed this total in just eight of his 23 starts.

Bonus coverage from Craig Williams:

Bulls -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
We’re picking on the struggling Hornets, who enter play with a 2-8 mark straight-up over their past 10, but they’ve won three of four against the spread. The Bulls have been poor at home (3-9), but that still outpaces what the Hornets have done on the road overall (2-8) and since LaMelo Ball went down with a calf injury. They’ve lost eight of their past nine straight-up and three of their past four against the spread. And they’ve scored 103.6 points per game since losing Ball. The Bulls, for their home struggles, still score a tick over 117 points per game at the United Center. 

Hornets under 112.5 points (-115 at bet365)
It’s another fade on the Hornets, this time we’re looking at their total. They’ve struggled offensively since losing Ball to a calf injury, and as we mentioned above, they’re averaging 103.6 points over that span. Meanwhile, the Bulls allow the 8th-lowest three-point percentage, presenting a mismatch on paper for a Hornets team that averages 43.1 long-range attempts per game, third in the NBA. We anticipate them struggling to exploit a porous Bulls defense and remaining under their total.

Cavaliers -16.5 (-115 at ESPNBET)
The Cavs have won four of five, both straight-up and against the spread, including covering against the Wizards as 16-point favorites. They enter with the league’s 2nd-best net rating, and rank 8th in bench scoring, so even if head coach Kenny Atkinson eases up on the starters a little bit, they have the depth to maintain a sizable lead over the Wizards, who rank 30th in net rating. Washington also enters tonight 1-17 since the start of November and 4-13-1 against the spread over that same span.

Labar: How a Couple of Tweaks Could Make Next Season’s CFP Better

The moment we were all waiting for came and went on Sunday when the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket was revealed. Coming into the season we were told how the seeding would work, but it wasn’t until we saw where each school actually finished in the poll, put the teams in the bracket, and could visualize the path to the championship that the reality hit that this is all quite…confusing. 

In an effort to not start on a negative note, I do think that the first regular season leading up to the expanded playoff met expectations. The excitement in November, games that felt bigger down the stretch, surprise teams that showed up and made it into the bracket: It was what we had hoped for. But the first season always comes with vulnerability, and parts of the system were surely exposed. It will be interesting to see the response by not just the committee this offseason, but in the way ADs, coaches and players handle scheduling, the transfer portal, etc. That’s for another conversation. For now, let's focus on the present. 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Nebraska Averaged 88 points in Past 3 Games Against Indiana, Winning All 3

By Craig Williams

Nebraska vs. Indiana over 152.2 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Nebraska has enjoyed offensive success against Indiana in recent contests, averaging 88 points over their past three games against the Hoosiers. Each of those contests went over the total, and we’re anticipating another high-scoring contest tonight. If we’re to buy into the recent track record, Nebraska has a read on what Indiana wants to do defensively from a schematic standpoint. We expect Indiana to do its part to get to the over as well, breaking the streak of Nebraska blowouts. The Hoosiers are playing good basketball of late, winning and covering their past four.

Indiana +4 (-102 at DraftKings)
We’re fading the idea of a fourth straight blowout in this series. Even if Nebraska ultimately extends their win streak over Indiana to four, we expect it to be a much more competitive contest. As mentioned above, the Hoosiers have won and covered their past four, so they’re entering tonight — their first true road contest — with confidence and rhythm in their corner. Given each side’s respective form — the Huskers are 1-4 against the spread at home and 3-5 against the spread overall — we like the chances of a more tightly contested matchup this time around.

Colorado -8.5 (-105 at Fanatics)
We’re riding the Buffalos to cover against the visiting Jackrabbits. Colorado has demonstrated the ability to perform at high enough of a level to take down a giant like UConn. And while we don’t expect them to play to that standard on a regular basis, it does demonstrate what they’re capable of. And it suggests that South Dakota State could have some trouble in their second road game in three days. They fell at Nevada, both straight-up and against the spread, on Wednesday; and lengthy road trips at a school like South Dakota State are hardly a lesson in luxury. Colorado has won three of four and two in a row straight-up, and they’re 4-2 as home favorites.

Colorado over 76.5 points (-115 at Caesars)
The Jackrabbits enter play with a strong overall defensive rating, but it wanes on the road. We’re venturing away from the box score and stats for a moment. Consider it’s the second road game in three days for South Dakota State. And a two-game road trip is nothing to sneeze at for a young Jackrabbits squad. One of the first things to slip for tired, distracted, and road weary teams is communication and defensive cohesion. If you buy the theory of an underclassmen dominated team looking ahead to a return home, then you may buy the idea of a veteran-led Colorado team establishing control on its home floor, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

A Look at Where 2025 Golf Futures Stand Near the End of 2024

By Jack Dougherty

Rory McIlroy to win the 2025 PGA Championship (+1100 at DraftKings)
Golf futures are about creating value at prices that won’t exist when the tournament rolls around, and we’d be shocked if McIlroy was above 9/1 by May. This is the perfect spot for the Northern Irishman to snap his 10-year major championship streak, as Quail Hollow Club is one of his favorite golf courses in the world. In 13 career starts at Quail Hollow, McIlroy has four wins, nine top-10 finishes and only one missed cut. He won the Wells Fargo Championship by five shots last year, so he’ll be thrilled to return to Charlotte with a major on the line.

Max Homa to win the 2025 PGA Championship (+7500 at FanDuel)
Speaking of players who love Quail Hollow, Homa could grab his first major championship in 2025. He has six PGA Tour wins on his resume, and four came in his home state of California. One of the other two came at Quail Hollow in 2019. Homa has struggled on the East Coast throughout his career, but he has a win and three top-10 finishes in his last four starts at Quail. 

Will Zalatoris to win the 2025 Masters (+8000 at DraftKings)
This is a matter of inconsistent pricing and jumping on a bad line. Zalatoris is 80/1 to win the Masters at DraftKings but 42/1 at FanDuel, so there’s value right now. Willy Z had an up-and-down 2024 season coming off back surgery, but he should be fully healthy heading into 2025. He also added 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason and says he feels great about his game right now. Zalatoris has finished solo second, T6 and T9 in three career starts at Augusta National, so he won’t be anywhere close to 80/1 if he’s playing well come April. 

Matt McCarty to win the WM Phoenix Open (+15000 at DraftKings)
This feels like another price that won’t be there in a few months. McCarty earned his way on the PGA Tour by winning three times in the span of six starts on the Korn Ferry Tour this season. He jumped to the big leagues in October and grabbed another win at the Black Desert Championship in just his second career PGA Tour start. The 27-year-old is ready to make a name for himself in 2025. If he continues on this trajectory and starts the season off hot, he won’t be close to 150/1 to win in Phoenix. 

The Bay Golf Club to win TGL (+470 at FanDuel)
TGL, Tiger Woods’ simulator golf league, gets underway in January. This is a brand new format in which players will hit shots on a simulator until they reach the green. Then, they’ll turn around and finish the hole on the state-of-the-art short game area complete with bunkers and a green. With so much unknown surrounding this league, we’re looking at a higher-priced team. The Bay Golf Club has two of the best iron players in the world in Ludvig Aberg and Shane Lowry, a long driver in Wyndham Clark and a short-game wizard in Min Woo Lee. This feels mispriced.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 15 Rundown: Quarterbacks

• Josh Allen is making big plays, but also takes what the defense gives him: 

  • His 28 big-time throws ranks 1st in the NFL 

  • His 2.7% turnover-worthy play rate is lowest of his career 

  • His 8.8 yards ADOT is 2nd-lowest of career 

  • 57.8% of his passing yards coming after the catch is highest of career by 10% (ranks 4th in the league behind Mayfield, Goff and Mahomes) 

• Joe Burrow is having one of the best seasons in recent history: His 92.9 passing grade ranks tied for 5th since 2015 (Aaron Rodgers 2020, Tom Brady 2016, Drew Brees 2018, Tom Brady 2017, tied with Tom Brady 2020) 

  • Burrow makes big plays, but keeps the ball safe: 

    • 7th in big-time throw percentage (5.3%) 

    • 4th in turnover-worthy play percentage (1.7%) 

  • Burrow great at picking apart deep coverage: 

    • vs Cover 3 

      • 92.0 passing grade, 76.8% completion percentage, 7.0 yards ADOT, 7 TDs, 0 INTs 

    • vs Cover 2

      • 90.2 passing grade, 79.5 completion percentage, 5.6 Yards ADOT, 0 TDs, 1 INT 

    • vs Cover 1 & Cover 0 

      • 13 TDs, 2 INTs 

• QBs on the run (min. 25 attempts):

  • Josh Allen 

    • 93.5 rushing grade (1st) 

    • 39 rushes for 1st downs (2nd) 

    • 9 rush TDs (2nd) 

  • Jalen Hurts

    • 90.1 Grade (4th) 

    • 55 rushes for 1st downs (1st) 

    • 13 rush TDs (1st) 

  • Lamar Jackson 

    • 45 missed tackles forced (1st)

    • 28 explosive runs of 10+ yards (1st, next closest is 18) 

  • Drake Maye 

    • 5.3 yards after contact per attempt ranks 1st (next closest is 4.4 yards)

• Best QBs in 2nd Half and OT, by passing grade: 

  • Joe Burrow: 93.6

  • Lamar Jackson: 91.3 

  • Sam Darnold: 87.3 

  • Tua Tagovailoa: 87.1 

  • Jayden Daniles: 82.4  

You can find our full weekly analysis with PFF, which also includes running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, at sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• The college football transfer portal winners and losers.

• 49ers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell refused to come off the bench last night to sub in for injured teammates.

• The Dolphins and Odell Beckham Jr. agreed to part ways.

• Colorado’s Travis Hunter is the first player to win the awards for best defensive player and best wide receiver in college football.

• LeBron isn’t playing tonight.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8pm: Indiana vs. Nebraska on FOX

• 9pm: Clippers vs. Nuggets on NBA TV

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