Notre Dame (-7) and Indiana Kick Off the College Football Playoff Tonight

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Every team’s odds to win the College Football Playoff

• College Football: Notre Dame has a top-3 offense AND defense

• Column: A holiday wish list for the NFL, NBA and more

• NBA: LaMelo Ball has attempted 18+ 3s four times this season

• NHL: Panthers have scored 6 in back-to-back games

• NFL: The Sportmoney x PFF Week 16 wide receivers rundown

• Overtime: Cameron Dicker made the NFL’s first fair catch free kick in 48 years

The College Football Playoff starts tonight (No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, 8pm ET on ABC/ESPN), so let’s take a look the odds to win the whole thing before the first ball is kicked (odds via FanDuel):

• Oregon +340

• Texas +370

• Georgia +500

• Ohio State +500

• Penn State +550

• Notre Dame +750

• Tennessee +2300

• SMU +4000

• Indiana +4000

• Arizona State +5000

• Clemson +6000

• Boise State +6000

In today’s newsletter, Chris covers college football, Craig has the NBA, Jack is tracking the NHL, and in her column Abby put together a sports holiday wish list.

We have the NFL covered too: Our Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown and Week 16 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings for every game are both on our website.

— Patrick Dorsey

Notre Dame Has Top-3 Offense and Defense Heading Into College Football Playoff

By Chris Farley

Notre Dame -7 (-105 at DraftKings)
It's hard to believe, but the Fighting Irish are a top-3 offense and defense. Watch out, Touchdown Jesus is making a comeback! Indiana has had a very good year, equally one of the best offenses in the country (2nd in points per play and per game, right below Notre Dame), but it's important to remember their Big Ten schedule; sure, the Hoosiers blew past most of their conference, but when they finally faced an elite team (Ohio State), they didn't look qualified (the Buckeyes won 38-15 and outclassed the Hoosiers 316 to 153 in total yards). Notre Dame has looked elite (besides their gaffe in Week 2), have outscored their last 10 opponents 441-134, and they're at home. 

Indiana vs. Notre Dame over 51 (-108 at DraftKings)
We find this number somewhat shocking. Sure, Indiana had difficulty moving the ball against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes own arguably the most talented defense in the country. The Irish defense has been extremely good, too, but a potent Indiana offense that puts up 40 points per game should be at its best with extra rest and weeks to prepare. The same can be said for Notre Dame, and we love their advantage in the passing game. Indiana's defense isn't stellar against the pass, allowing a 62.54% (91st) completion rate. Riley Leonard is one of the most accurate passers in college football, hitting 66% of his throws this season. We project a stellar offensive line to make room for Notre Dame's elite talent, and for Indiana to play catch-up in a high-scoring affair.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame first quarter over 10.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
All season we've seen explosiveness from the Hoosiers and Fighting Irish offenses, two units that were rarely stifled by opposing defenses. The Irish are a top-13 program in the first 15 minutes, averaging 8.4 points per game, and they've scored at least seven points in five straight first quarters. The Hoosiers are right there with the home team, averaging 7.3 first quarter points and they've scored seven or more points in six out of seven of their past first quarters. Even against the mighty Buckeyes, it was the Hoosiers who led 7-0 in the first. The pressure of the moment might quell scoring eventually, but we expect both offenses to win early.

Florida Gators -10 (-110 at Bovada)
These are two programs going in opposite directions. The Gasparilla Bowl features a Tulane team that we simply can't trust; they're coming off two of their worst showings of the season (walloped by Memphis and Army in consecutive games), critical players have either opted out or transferred, and their starting quarterback has moved on to play at Duke. Florida has steadily improved all year, taking down some above-average rivals on the way (LSU and Ole Miss, most notably), and we believe the disparity in talent and Florida's momentum has clear blowout potential. 

SMU +9 (-110 at Bovada and DraftKings)
Fresh off of a humbling loss to Clemson in the ACC title game, the Mustangs travel to central Pennsylvania to take on one of the nation's best defenses. The thing is, SMU is no joke on that side of the ball, either. The Mustangs allow just 4.6 yards per play (10th) and a terrific 2.8 yards per carry. This affects the Nittany Lions more than their opponent, since they rely more on their rushing attack, a group that chooses to stay on the ground for 56.68% of their plays (34th). The Nittany Lions are better against the run than against the pass, as are the Mustangs, but that favors SMU thrower Kevin Jennings, whose elusiveness and ability to run (379 yards, 5 touchdowns this season) are elite compared to his foe. This won't be easy for Penn State.

SMU vs. Penn State under 54.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Situationally, this is way different than the regular season. The first iteration of the 12-team College Football Playoff looks to have both programs nervous and trigger-shy. And let's face it — they're still kids! Scenarios like this typically favor defense, but it's especially the case when both programs are so exceptional on that side of the ball. For the most part, the Mustangs are an "over” team, 8-5 ATS this season, but at Beaver Stadium the Nittany Lions are stifling and energetic — 5-2 to the "under" and permitting only 11 points per game in front of their fans. Their loss to Ohio State was disappointing, but this isn't the Buckeyes and both teams move slow.

Labar: All I Want for the Holidays … Sports Leagues Edition

I know what you’re thinking … another one of “these” articles. But guys come on, bear with me here. There is a reason they are a fun read — and for me a fun write. Every week I’ve had the pleasure of diving into so many different topics, teams and leagues, so in all honesty it was a little tough to try to figure out where to allocate my time with this one because I wanted to do a Holiday Wish List that suited everyone. But then I thought, why can’t I?

Now I can’t speak for all fans, who I am sure have very long and specific wish lists for their teams. So in an attempt to highlight some of the bigger topics lately, here is what I personally would love to see in sports next year. I hope you all support me by adding these in your letters to Santa.

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

LaMelo Ball Has Attempted 18+ 3-Pointers Four Times This Season

By Craig Williams

Sixers -10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Hornets are dreadful, entering tonight’s contest 1-9 over their past 10, and they’ve failed to cover in six of their past seven. That includes losing as 4-point favorites against the Wizards on Thursday night. The Sixers are far from fixed, but they’re 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread over their past 10. Charlotte’s offensive efficiency wanes on the road, and they’ve produced below their already subpar rating over their past three.

Tyrese Maxey over 31.5 points + assists (-120 ESPNBET)
We’re picking on LaMelo Ball’s poor on-ball defense with this play, and looking at a matchup that Maxey should be able to exploit as a scorer and playmaker. He torched the Hornets on the road for 40 points on Monday, and even if Maxey shares usage with Joel Embiid (questionable), his ability to score at a high rate and make plays for others should allow him to reach the over in this spot. He’s gone over 31.5 points-plus-assists in two of his past three, and the Hornets play more porous defense on the road.

LaMelo Ball 4+ 3-pointers made (-165 at bet365)
Ball appears to be fully unleashed as he enters his third game in his return from a calf strain. He attempted a staggering 18 3-point attempts against the Wizards on Thursday, the fourth time he’s finished with 18 or more 3-point attempts in a game. He’s averaging 13.1 on the season overall. He converts at a higher clip on the road — 35.5% vs. 33.3%. A bit more efficiency to go along with a high volume of 3-point attempts could see Ball convert four shots from distance tonight.

Bucks +9.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Damian Lillard’s absence factors into the points they’re getting ahead of a matchup at the first-place Cavs. We’re going off of the stat sheet a bit because it’s difficult to quantify the phenomenon of backups playing well in place of starters in short spurts. The Bucks are riding the momentum of winning the NBA Cup — and passed on the subsequent celebration. It’s clear they’re locked in, and even though the absence of Lillard will hurt, we think they’re playing too well collectively to lay an egg tonight. We expect Giannis Antetokounmpo, and to a lesser extent Khris Middleton, to step up and keep this one relatively close.

Cavs under 116.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Bucks’ current run has been fueled largely through their defense, which has been among the stingiest in the league in recent weeks. The absence of Lillard will be more challenging to replace offensively than defensively, so we expect the Bucks to continue riding their momentum into Cleveland, and to make things difficult on the Cavs. The Bucks have held their past five opponents under 117 points.

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 50.5 points + assists + rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)
Antetokounmpo is spearheading the Bucks’ resurgence, both on and off of the floor. He’s fresh off leading the Bucks to an NBA Cup win with a 26-19-10 triple double. Lillard’s absence likely will put more of the usage in Antetokounmpo’s hands. He’s scored 40-plus points four times, dished out double-digit assists three times, and pulled down 14-plus rebounds six times.

Thunder -1 (-110 at Caesars)
The Thunder are 4-0 straight-up in the second leg of back-to-backs, and they withstood a hellacious second-half slump to hold off the Magic on Thursday night, demonstrating that they’ve licked their wounds after falling short in the NBA Cup. They’re 9-1 over their past 10 straight-up and 5-0-1 against the spread over their past six (the NBA Cup final doesn’t count toward the standings).

Panthers Have Scored 6 Goals in Back-to-Back Games

By Jack Dougherty

Panthers team total over 3.5 (-116 at FanDuel)
Florida’s offense is on a roll right now, as the Panthers have scored six goals in consecutive games. Now they get to take on a Blues team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. This will mark St. Louis’ fourth back-to-back this season and its third on the road. It gave up four goals in two of the previous three, and it’ll have a tough time slowing down a Panthers team that ranks second in the NHL in Corsi % (54.35 percent) and fifth in goals scored (73).

Alex DeBrincat anytime goalscorer (+195 at DraftKings)
The Canadiens have a clear defensive weakness that opponents have exposed all season. Montreal gives up the most goals per game to opposing right-wingers in the NHL (1.03), while no other team gives up more than 0.85 goals per game to the position. That’s great news for DeBrincat, who leads the Red Wings in shots on goal (82) and goals (13) this year. Goalie Sam Montembeault has also struggled since the start of December, as he’s already allowed 16 goals in five games this month.

Nick Suzuki 1+ point (-150 at DraftKings)
Suzuki has been a points machine for the Canadiens this season. The center leads Montreal in assists (21) and ranks second in shots on goal (65) and goals (11). He’s recorded at least one point in nine of his last 10 games, and this is a great matchup for him to keep that streak going. The Red Wings give up the third-most shots on goal per game to opposing centers (11.53), and they’ve given up 15 goals over their last four games.

John Tavares anytime goalscorer (+200 at FanDuel)
The Sabres are in a tailspin right now, and they’re showing no signs of turning things around. Buffalo has lost 11 straight games to fall to 11-17-4, and they’ve surrendered at least four goals in six of their last eight. Tavares just saw this struggling Sabres team a few days ago, and he had quite the night with three goals on six shots. That’s no surprise considering Buffalo allows the fourth-most goals per game to opposing centers (1.50). Tavares knows exactly how to attack this back line.

Ryan Strome 1+ points (+132 at FanDuel)
Strome has recorded only 16 points in 30 games this season, but he’s starting to ramp up the offense with four assists and nine shots on goal over his last four games. This is a great matchup for Strome to stay hot, too. The Avalanche have surrendered the fifth-most goals in the NHL this year (73), and they give up the most goals per game to opposing centers (1.61).

Sportmoney x PFF Week 16 Rundown: Wide Receivers

• Teams that average the most yards per reception on wide screens:

  • 49ers: 9.9 YPR 

  • Rams: 8.6 YPR

  • Lions: 8.5 YPR

  • Ravens: 8.3 YPR

  • Buccaneers: 7.8 YPR

• Teams that allow the most yards per reception on wide screens:

  • Seahawks: 9.4 YPR

  • Bears: 9.0 YPR 

  • Packers: 8.6 YPR 

  • Bengals: 8.3 YPR

  • Panthers: 7.9 YPR

• Lions vs. Bears matchup 

  • Lions players with 5+ Wide Screens: 

    • Jameson Williams 

    • Sam LaPorta 

    • Amon-Ra St. Brown 

    • Kalif Raymond (injured)

You can find our full weekly analysis with PFF, which also includes quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends, at sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker made the first fair catch free kick in the NFL since 1976.

• The Grizzlies held Stephen Curry and Draymond Green without a field goal in Memphis’ blowout win.

• Georgia is reportedly expecting starting quarterback Carson Beck to miss the CFP.

• Sammy Sosa apologized for past “mistakes” as the Cubs welcomed him back.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3:30pm: Tulane vs. Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl on ESPN2

• 8pm: No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff on ABC/ESPN

• 11pm: Creighton vs. No. 1 UCLA in women’s college basketball on FS1

Photo of the Day