13 NBA Bets to Consider and a Look at the Final 3 Non-CFP Bowl Games

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: The final four in the CFP

• NBA: Boston is 2-5 against the spread with a rest disadvantage

• Column: Why pro women’s hockey is surging in popularity

• College Football: VT might be missing at least 14 starters due to transfers, injuries and opt-outs

• NBA: Knicks have scored 117 or more in 6 out of past 8 games

• Overtime: Is Sirianni still considering playing Barkley this week?

The College Football Playoff is down to the final four: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. All four teams that earned a bye lost their first game, one more proof point that makes it unlikely that the seeding system will remain the same next season. Here’s where DraftKings has things six days out:

• Penn State vs. Notre Dame (January 9th)

  • Spread: ND -1.5 (-110), PSU +1.5 (-110)

  • Moneyline: ND -122, PSU +102

  • Total (46.5): Over/Under -110

    • 77% of the bets are with the Under

• Texas vs. Ohio State (January 10th)

  • Spread: OSU -6 (-110), UT +6 (-110)

    • 87% of the bets are with Ohio State

  • Moneyline: OSU -225, UT +185

  • Total (53.5): Over/Under -110

The sportsbook has Ohio State as the favorite to win the championship at +110, followed by Notre Dame (+360), Texas (+380) and Penn State (+475).

In today’s newsletter, Craig and Chris cover the NBA, Jack continues our college football bowl coverage, and in her column Abby gives you a behind-the-scenes look at the success of the Professional Women’s Hockey League.

We have the NFL covered too: Our Week 18 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings for every game is on our website.

— Abe Rakov

Barnes is Shooting 53.9% over Past 5 Games, Went Over Tonight’s Total (17.5) in 4 of Those

By Craig Williams

Pistons -6 (-110 at Caesars)
We’re beginning this analysis under the assumption that LaMelo Ball will not play. And the Hornets are abysmal — as in 1-9 and losing by an average of 10.1 points — without him. They’re also 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 against the spread over their past 10 games overall. Things get even worse on the road, where they’re 2-12 straight-up. They’re 7-7 against the spread away from home, but failed to cover against the lowly Wizards in their past two road contests. The Pistons, meanwhile, have won and covered four of five, and they’re playing better on the offensive side of the floor of late. 

Hornets under 105.5 points (-105 at ESPNBET)
The Hornets are incredibly banged up as of Friday morning with a number of players listed as questionable. Chief among them is Ball, who is battling ankle and wrist injuries. And it’s his right wrist, so we figure he’s either going to remain out or he’s going to try to play with a compromised shooting hand — he already shoots 34.6% from three. The Hornets’ offensive rating drops by nearly 10 points when Ball is off the floor. However, Ball also owns a 39.1% usage rate. So if he’s compromised, he could do as much harm as good. Either way, we’re bearish on the Hornets in this spot.

Raptors moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
The Raptors have a great chance to win back-to-back games after snapping a nasty losing streak. We like their chances of defeating a visiting Magic team that is ravaged by injuries, including their two best players. Their recent offensive efficiency only outpaces the Hornets, and the rash of injuries means guard Jalen Suggs will be miscast as the offensive focal point — he has a 35.6% usage rate over his past five games. The Magic continue to play solid defense, but the Raptors will be at home and have the best player on the floor in Scottie Barnes, so we like them to win outright in this one.  

Magic under 108.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
As we touched on above, the Magic have struggled mightily of late on the offensive end of the floor, and understandably so considering their injuries. They have a bottom-five offensive rating over their past 10 games and they score at a lower clip on the road. They’ve remained under 109 points in four straight and six of eight, and we expect them to struggle tonight, even against a poor Raptors team.

Scottie Barnes over 17.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
This is another spot in which the Raptors will climb atop Barnes’ shoulders. He delivered a big game his last time out to help snap a lengthy losing streak: Barnes put up 33 points and 13 rebounds with five assists, and we’re eyeing another quality showing from the Raptors’ centerpiece. Barnes has gone over 17.5 points in four of his past five, and he’s shooting 53.9% from the floor over that span. The Magic are stingy defensively overall, but they’ve been more pliable in recent weeks.

Rockets +3 (-112 at FanDuel)
We looked at the moneyline for the Rockets, but ultimately settled on a more conservative angle with them getting three points. Houston is not used to being home dogs, but they’re 2-0 in the spot, both straight-up and against the spread. The Celtics won a hard-fought contest in Minnesota last night, and they enter Friday’s tilt 2-5 against the spread with the rest disadvantage. The Rockets should be both rested and in rhythm — they’ve played three times since December 27 and are entering Game 4 of a five-game homestand. Finally, don’t neglect to at least consider the Ime Udoka factor here. This will be the first time he’s coached against his former team since they won the 2024 title.

Jordan Poole over 3.5 threes made (-105 at Fanatics)
We’re picking on the Pelicans here, who are among the worst teams in the NBA (along with the Wizards). They have a bottom-four defensive rating over their 11-game losing streak, and they’ve been generous defending the three-point line in recent contests. Poole has been shooting well of late, converting on 4.9 threes on 11.8 attempts over his past nine games. He’s also shooting better on the road, both overall and from three-point range (43.8%). He’s drained at least four threes in six of his past nine contests, and we like him to do so tonight.

Labar: Professional Women’s Hockey is Surging in Popularity with New League

It’s Sunday morning around 7am and I’m getting ready to cover my first Professional Women’s Hockey League game. In an effort to make sure I’m fully prepared, I have an episode of “Jocks in Jills” playing in the background. The podcast airs every Tuesday and Thursday, and they usually have some pretty phenomenal guests on the show.

This episode in particular featured none other than Kendall Coyne-Schofield. Recognize the name? You don’t have to be a women’s hockey fan to know who this woman is: An unbelievable athlete who is highly decorated and has represented the United States with true passion and pride in her sport — while also advocating for equality and change within hockey.

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

An Early Look at CFP Championship Game MVP + Buffalo’s Shift from Underdog to Favorite

By Jack Dougherty

North Texas team total under 24.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
North Texas ranks 16th in the country in points per game (33.9) and fifth in yards per play (6.6) this season, but this isn’t the same team that put up those gaudy offensive numbers. The Mean Green will be without starting quarterback Chandler Morris, leading receiver DT Sheffield, starting tight end Oscar Hammond and multiple starters on the offensive line. UNT will be rolling out true freshmen at quarterback, left tackle, wide receiver and tight end, so it’s hard to imagine this inexperienced group having much success.

Jordan McCloud 250+ passing yards (+110 at DraftKings)
As good as North Texas’ offense was in the regular season, its defense was even worse. The Mean Green ranks 121st in the country in passing yards allowed per game (268.4) and 114th in yards allowed per pass (8.4). This defense allowed five of the past seven quarterbacks it faced to go over this number, while McCloud cleared this line in seven of his 12 starts for Texas State. McCloud should air it out against the worst secondary he’s faced all season.

Minnesota -9.5 (-110 at Bet365)
Virginia Tech is a dead team walking heading into the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The Hokies could be without at least 14 starters due to transfers, injuries and opt-outs, including starting quarterback Kyron Drones, starting running back Bhayshul Tuten and four members of the secondary. Minnesota is also missing a few starters on both sides of the ball, but quarterback Max Brosmer and running back Darius Taylor will be on the field. Virginia Tech backup quarterback Pop Watson will be playing behind a makeshift offensive line with limited weapons around him, so it will be tough to keep this one close.

Buffalo -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Buffalo opened as the underdog in this matchup, but it flipped to a three-point favorite over the past few weeks. Although we’re getting the worst of the number, this still feels like the right side. Liberty entered the season hoping to reach the College Football Playoff, but it fell short of expectations and ended up in a sleepy Bahamas Bowl at 11 a.m. local time on Saturday. The Flames might not have much motivation to win this game, and they’ll be without starting quarterback Kaidon Salter, starting running back Quinton Cooley, two starting offensive linemen and at least four defensive starters. Buffalo has its full roster available and is more motivated to finish off the season in style. 

Jeremiah Smith CFP National Championship Game Offensive MVP (+850 at DraftKings)
Ohio State is now the favorite to win the national title at +110, but all the value has been sucked out of that number after dominant wins against Tennessee and Oregon. Instead of laying that short price, you can look at the Buckeyes in a different way by targeting an MVP future. Jeremiah Smith might be the best wide receiver in the country as a true freshman, and Ohio State finally realized it after the regular season. Through two College Football Playoff games, Smith has put up 13 catches, 290 yards and four touchdowns. If the Buckeyes can get past Texas as six-point favorites, Smith will be much lower than +850 to win MVP.

Wemby Averaged 28.5 Points, 10 Rebounds and 4.4 Blocks a Game in December

By Chris Farley

Knicks vs. Thunder over 221.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Two unfamiliar opponents face off on Friday night in Oklahoma City, and there’s a reason why this total isn’t as high as casual fans might expect. The Thunder are a premier defense at home: first or second overall in opponent fast break points, paint points, and overall defensive efficiency. Contrarily, New York’s offense is clicking on all cylinders, scoring 117 or more in six out of their past eight contests and rated 3rd overall in that span. They also have the size and physicality to drive in the paint and score on a stingy but small OKC roster. We like the Knicks to push pace and create a bigger scoreboard; let’s take advantage of a deflated number.

Mavericks 1st Half +3 (-110 consensus)
It’s never comfortable to bet against the Cavaliers. They continue to be one of the highest ranked teams on both offense and defense, and all they do is win. Three games into a West Coast road trip, they’ve already knocked off the Nuggets, Warriors, and Lakers, all by double-digit margins. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are struggling without Luka Dončić, but they're in a much better spot. Dallas doesn’t play again until Monday, and they’ve been in Texas all week. They’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this battle, and by now the Mavericks have adapted to life without Luka since this is his 12th game out this season. We like them earlier more than later since we’ve seen the Cavs pull away far too often. 

Kyrie Irving over 26.5 points (-113 at Bovada)
If the Mavs are going to have a chance in this game, Kyrie has to be a massive part of it. We also shouldn’t forget that Dallas was in the NBA Finals last year, and even without Luka they’ve managed to win more than they lose. Irving is averaging 26 points per game when Luka is out this season, and the last time he faced Cleveland as a member of the Mavericks, he dropped 30. Cleveland's defense has been amazing, but a legend like Kyrie is unguardable in big moments. And since the Mavericks have had time to prepare in Texas all week, this profiles as the type of game where Irving will attack early and often in an all-out effort to hang with an elite. 

Victor Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-118 at WilliamHill)
The era of Wembanyama is upon us. The French phenom is starting to hit his stride, averaging 28.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.4 blocks per game in December. Last year he squared up against the Nuggets three times, scoring 30 total points in his first two games but then exploding for a 34-point, electrifying performance in a late-season win. Wembayama's easy-breezy confidence and sheer length was on full display that evening, and a sign of things to come. This is a spot Wemby has been thinking about for awhile, since he had one of his worst shooting games of his early career the last time he was at Denver (he shot 9/29 on April 2nd). We love the big-man to shine.

Spurs +7.5 (-110 consensus)
The Nuggets might finally be figuring things out, at least in enough wins to string together three straight wins. The problem is that Denver hasn't had a longer winning streak since early November, with inconsistent, at times utterly pedestrian, performances. Of course Nikola Jokic still leads the team and he remains the favorite to win another MVP award, but without Jokic this would be a very questionable program. Their offense is top-five recently, but their defense ranks 19th this season and even worse (25th) over their past seven games. We can't rely on Denver at this big of a spread against a San Antonio team that's always competitive and fiery (and currently on a 7-0 ATS run). 

Grizzlies +3.5 (-105 at Bovada)
We consider this a gift from the gambling Gods, not that any wager is a sure thing. Still, how can we not look at the Grizzlies in this spot? Sacramento is a team on a downward spiral, a week removed from firing Mike Brown, a well-liked and well-respected coach around the league, and it hasn't produced much. The Kings rate as the 22nd-best team over their past five games, with a regressing 23rd-ranked offense, and they're far too reliant on De'Aaron Fox. Wins over the Dallas and Philly B-teams don't change our minds, either. The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant, but they're well-coached, talented on both ends, and they're one of the highest-rated programs in December. Let's fire!

In the News 

• Sirianni says he plans to speak to players, coaches and Eagles’ front office about whether or not Barkley should play this week.

• Giannis has the early lead in the NBA All-Star Game fan ballot; LeBron on pace to extend record selection streak.

• USMNT and AC Milan star Christian Pulisic could return today after missing nearly a month due to injury.

• Denver is getting the 16th team in the National Women's Soccer League for a record $110 million.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:45pm: The opening PGA Tour event of the year, The Sentry, on ESPN+ Golf Channel and NBC

• 8pm: No. 18 Michigan State vs. Ohio State in men’s college basketball action on FOX

• 8pm: Knicks vs. Thunder on NBA TV

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