CFP Semifinal #2, NFL Playoff Previews and Tonight's NBA Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Tonight’s CFP semifinal

• College Football: Ohio State and Texas are 1st and 2nd in yards/play allowed

• NBA: Pacers are 7-3 straight-up and against the spread over their past 10

• Column: Breaking down the NFL Wild Card QB matchups

• NBA: Brooklyn has a -72 point differential over its past 6 games

• NFL: Insights on Saturday’s playoff games

• Overtime: Is there an NFL path for Deion?

Notre Dame beat Penn State with a 41-yard field goal with seven seconds to go, punching their ticket to the national championship game. The Fighting Irish last won a title in 1988, which was Lou Holtz’s third season in South Bend.

Ohio State is favored by 5.5 points over Texas (-118 at FanDuel) to join Notre Dame in Atlanta. The Buckeyes have five players on offense with PFF grades of 80 or better: WR Emeka Egbuka (80.6), QB Will Howard (84.4), RBs Quinshon Judkins (86.3) and TreVeyon Henderson (87.0), and WR Jeremiah Smith (90.3). The Longhorns counter with nine defenders with PFF grades of 80 or better, including three that are over 90: CB Jay'Vion Cole (90.1), S Andrew Mukuba (90.9) and CB Jahdae Barron (91.0).

In today’s newsletter, Craig and Chris cover the NBA and Jack has Ohio State vs. Texas. In her column, Abby breaks down the quarterback matchups in the NFL’s Wild Card round. And we also have insights on tomorrow’s NFL playoff games (along with our rundown of every playoff game on our website).

— Abe Rakov

UT is Ranked 4th in Points Allowed per Game, But OSU is No. 1 at 12.1

By Jack Dougherty

Ohio State vs. Texas under 53.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a scary bet to make after watching Ohio State score 42 and 41 points, respectively, in its first two games of the College Football Playoff, but Texas should put up some more resistance. The Longhorns rank fourth in the country in points allowed per game (14.5) and second in yards allowed per play (4.1). The only team in college football that ranks above them in both categories just happens to be Ohio State. This is a battle between two elite defenses and two offenses that haven’t been consistent from week to week. We’ll trust the steadier units. 

Gee Scott Jr. over 14.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Scott was barely involved in Ohio State’s passing attack to start the season, but he’s gained momentum as the year has gone on. After going under this line in the first four games, Scott has now gone over 14.5 receiving yards in six of the past nine down the stretch. He’s averaged 22.2 receiving yards per game in that span. Texas will likely focus on limiting big plays from Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka down the field, which should open up some easy throws to Scott. 

TreVeyon Henderson 25+ receiving yards (-102 at FanDuel)
Henderson has come on as a reliable receiving threat for Will Howard out of the backfield. Like Scott, Henderson didn’t see much action in the passing game in the first half of the season, but he’s averaged 26.6 receiving yards per game over the past seven contests. Chip Kelly surely watched Texas’ defensive film against Arizona State when the Longhorns gave up eight catches and 99 receiving yards to running back Cam Skattebo. That’s been a weak spot on Texas’ defense all year, and Henderson has the tools to exploit it. 

Quinn Ewers interception (-180 at FanDuel)
Ewers can look like a No. 1 overall pick at times, but he makes a few head-scratching decisions every game. The Texas QB has thrown 11 interceptions in 13 games this season, including at least one pick in four straight. Those mistakes usually come under pressure, and there’s no better team at getting after the quarterback than Ohio State. The Buckeyes lead the country in sack rate (11.24%) this season. They’ve racked up 12 total sacks in their first two CFP games, so that relentless pressure will likely force Ewers into another mistake. 

Gunnar Helm anytime touchdown (+230 at FanDuel)
This price is a tad high for how much Helm has been used in the passing game in the College Football Playoff. The Texas tight end is second on the team with 11 targets through two games, and he found the end zone in both matchups. The Longhorns utilize their speedy wide receivers and running backs to break off chunk plays, but once they reach the red zone, Helm becomes their most dangerous target.

Sacramento Has League’s 6th-Best Offense Over Past 5 Games

By Craig Williams

Bucks moneyline (-225 at BetMGM)
We’re looking at a conservative play to begin here for a couple of reasons. One, the Magic enter tonight with a 13-6 record at home compared to the Bucks’ 7-9 road tally. The Bucks have been better lately, compiling a 6-4 road mark away from home across their past 10, but they’re still just 4-5 against the spread as a road favorite. Second, even though the Bucks should be able to dispatch of the Magic — who are expecting Paolo Bancharo’s return — we don’t like some of the bad losses they’ve suffered in recent weeks — at Charlotte, vs. Brooklyn (2x) and vs. Portland.

Magic under 102.5 points (-120 at Fanatics)
The Magic can’t score right now, a trend that will eventually change with Bancharo expected back tonight. He hasn’t played since October 30, so there is going to be some rust and an adjustment period. Orlando’s offensive woes have really bottomed out over their past 10, where their 29th-ranked offensive rating barely outpaces the Hornets. That will improve in short enough order, but another low-scoring contest appears on tap tonight, especially since the Bucks have produced the league’s second-best defensive rating over that span, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Pacers -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Pacers have won four in a row, and they are 7-3 straight-up and against the spread over their past 10. They also rank fourth in the league in offensive efficiency over that span, a trend we expect to continue against a struggling Warriors squad. They’re 4-6 over the past 10, and they’re heading into the second leg of a back-to-back. The Warriors are 1-4 against the spread with no rest, and they’re 0-6 against the spread with the rest disadvantage.

Pacers over 57.5 first half points (-110 at FanDuel)
We like the Pacers to get out to a fast start against a depleted Warriors team that just played a close game last night against the Pistons. The Pacers are averaging 58 points in the first half over their past three games. That’s a tiny sample size, but it demonstrates and underscores their recent form. Plus, it’s worth noting that the Warriors are allowing 61 points in the first half over their past three; and their defensive struggles have been present for even longer, as their No. 23 ranked defensive rating over their past 15 games suggests.

Warriors under 108.5 points (-115 at bet365)
As we mentioned above, the Warriors are 4-6 across their past 10 games, thanks to mediocre defense and offense. They rank 22nd in offensive efficiency over that 10-game span, and they’re averaging 107.8 points. They scored 107 points in a 3-point win over the Pistons on Thursday night, but that wasn’t the second leg of a back-to-back against a superior opponent. We’re going to stop short of calling the Pacers’ defense “stingy” — they rank 10 spots lower in defensive rating than the Pistons — but the Warriors are simply having a difficult time scoring of late. Plus they’re averaging 99.2 points in the second leg of back-to-backs.

Kings vs. Celtics over 229 points (-110 at FanDuel)
We know how good the Celtics are overall and how quickly they can light up the scoreboard, especially at home. They’re “only” 6-4 over their past 10 — two of those losses came against the Thunder and red-hot Pacers — but they own the league’s No. 3 offensive rating over that span. Meanwhile, the Kings are in a groove under interim head coach Doug Christie, winning five in a row and going 4-1 against the spread over that span. They have the No. 6 offensive rating over the five-game stretch, suggesting they’ve found something on that end of the floor. Tonight will be the Kings’ first road game since Christie took over and the Celtics will be their best opponent of this recent stretch, so we’re hesitant to side with the Kings. We like the current run they're enjoying, though, and see a high-scoring contest unfolding.

Celtics -3.5 first quarter (-112 at DraftKings)
We think the Kings will put together a strong performance overall considering their recent form, but we’re also considering that it’s the first road trip under their interim boss. It’s one thing to right the ship in the comfort of your own home, but hitting the road presents new challenges. These challenges certainly aren’t new to the Kings and their individual players, but hitting the road under the new regime is new. It would hardly be a surprise to see the Kings stumble out of the gate just a bit before eventually finding their footing and getting into a rhythm. That adjustment period should be enough for the Celtics, who know they’re good, to get out to a decent first-quarter advantage against the Kings, who are still figuring out if they’re good.

Labar: Breaking Down the NFL Wild Card QB Matchups

Scream it from the rooftops: The NFL postseason is here! Wild Card weekend is one of the best. Fans still full of hope that their team will not disappoint them, the drama of the upsets, rookie appearances and the stars that emerge. I’ll keep this intro short and sweet so we can dive into the nitty gritty, but in preparation for an exciting weekend ahead, please enjoy this breakdown of all the QBs we (should) see take the field this weekend.

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Denver and Brooklyn Give Up a Combined 59 Points a Game in the 1st Quarter 

By Chris Farley

76ers -4 (-110 at Caesars)
Most of our wagers are anchored by observation. Sure, data plays a huge role, but data doesn't always tell the full story. In the case of the Pelicans, plenty of metrics strongly suggest they're simply a terrible team. Even with Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray healthy, their offense is sputtering, ranked 18th. Their defense is just as mediocre (19th). Still, it's the way they look on the court — disjointed, struggling to find open looks, unable to maintain consistent form — that speaks to deeper issues. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has been improving since mid-December (12th in net rating), and even without Embiid they're the better program, at home.

Knicks +3.5 (-105 at Caesars)
It's hard to ever bet against a team like the Thunder. Oklahoma City has only lost six games all season, a great feat in any era but especially in 2024, where rest management and other distractions often come before winning. Regardless, the Thunder must feel a deflation of sorts, having their 15-game win streak snapped two nights ago and now on a week-long East Coast road trip that's not getting any easier. Meanwhile, the Knicks have been at home and remain at home all weekend, and were given a damn-near automatic win against Toronto two nights ago. New York lost the first meeting between these two last Friday even though they dominated the first three quarters. Revenge is near!

Thunder vs. Knicks over 225.5 points (-105 at BetOnline)
The first matchup between the Thunder and Knicks should have had a much higher final score. Oklahoma City's defense deserves credit, they're among the best perimeter defenses in the league, but the Knicks just simply couldn't hit a three. As a team they were just 9-32 from beyond the arc (28%). It didn't help that Jalen Brunson struggled all night, too (9-23). The Thunder are coming off a marquee matchup on Wednesday, losing at Cleveland. After such a physical and tiring matchup, and without as much glory to defend, the table is set for a much better offensive showing from New York, and thus a much bigger scoreboard.

Wizards vs. Bulls over 241.5 points (-110 consensus)
Once again, the Bulls are doing that thing where they make absolutely no rational sense. One night, Chicago will look like an elite team. In recent weeks they've beaten the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics. The next night, they'll look like a high school team against the NBA's mediocre programs, particularly on defense. Last time these two squads faced off, the Wizards dropped 125 points on the Bulls in DC, a win for the home team. Both teams run at top-10 tempo, and Chicago has played faster than usual in January. With guys like Jordan Poole and Zach LaVine scoring at will lately, we can't resist looking at this angle.

Nuggets -15.5 (-105 at Bookmaker and Bovada)
Something's up in Brooklyn. Like many teams before the trade deadline, particularly those whose playoff chances are in serious jeopardy (Brooklyn is 13-24), players might not show the same level of commitment. Time will tell if the Nets make any moves, but they've already dished out Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith, so clearly they're in the market. This period of limbo has created some very poor outings by Brooklyn, an outfit that has a -72 point differential over its past six games. Denver hasn't often looked elite this season, but they're at home and over their past seven contests they're 5-2 ATS and have the third-best offense. The market says blowout, and we agree.

Nets vs. Nuggets first quarter over 56.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Strangely, the Nuggets are one of the worst teams against the spread in the first quarter (13-21-2). The reason is indisputable: Denver exhibits one of the worst defenses in the NBA in the first 12 minutes, allowing an average of 31 points per game (30th) — another symptom of an often highly flawed group that ranks 19th overall this season. Fortunately for our wallets, their opponent's defense isn't much better. Brooklyn allows 28.1 points per first quarter and over their past seven games they're 24th in defensive efficiency. We've also seen them put up points (33 against Milwaukee and 30 against Toronto) early when facing a bad defense. All signs say the market hasn't caught up. 

Insights on Saturday’s NFL Playoff Matchups: Chargers v. Texans and Steelers v. Ravens

To get you ready for the start of the NFL playoffs, we turned to NFL Next Gen Stats to provide you with some key insights for tomorrow’s games.

Chargers (-2.5, -120) vs. Texans (+2.5, -102)

• Justin Herbert is the only qualified quarterback that did not throw an interception while not under pressure this season. Herbert averaged 8.4 yards per attempt when not pressured, the 6th-most among quarterbacks.

• The Chargers starting offensive line (Slater, Johnson, Bozeman, Pipkins, Alt) played 64.1% of snaps together this season, the 4th-highest by any teams starting unit in the NFL. During their 3-game winning streak (Weeks 16-18) they allowed the 2nd-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (21.4%).

• The Texans generated the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (37.8%) and fared well against the run, allowing opposing rushers to record the 2nd-fewest rushing yards over expected this season (-93).

• Texans safety Calen Bullock was targeted 28 times, allowing just 11 receptions, the lowest completion percentage (39.3%) allowed as the nearest defender this season (min. 25 targets).

Steelers (+9.5, -105) vs. Ravens (-9.5, -115)

• Lamar Jackson scrambled to run on just 9.0% of his dropbacks this season, which despite being the 4th-highest rate in the NFL, was the 2nd-lowest rate of his career. Jackson totaled 446 yards and a touchdown on 48 scramble runs this season, averaging 9.3 yards per carry (5th-most).

• The Steelers allowed their lowest completion percentage of the season (48.5%) against the Ravens in Week 11, including their 2nd-lowest completion percentage over expected (-13.8%). Overall, the Steelers allowed a 34.3% passing success rate in Week 11, their lowest rate allowed in a game this season.

• Russell Wilson averaged just 5.7 air yards per attempt in Week 11, his 2nd-fewest in a game this season. Wilson was most effective on short passes, completing 20 of his 24 passes under 10 air yards for 126 yards.

• Derrick Henry recorded 7 explosive runs (10+ yards) in Week 16 against the Steelers, the most in a single-game by any player this season.

In the News 

• LiAngelo Ball has gone viral.

• Deion Sanders says he would consider jumping to the NFL if he could coach his sons.

• Last year’s high-profile doping cases are back in the spotlight as the tennis season begins.

• Carson Beck, the Georgia QB who declared for the NFL Draft in December, has entered the transfer portal.

• The Raiders fired GM Tom Telesco after all.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12:10pm: PGA Tour’s Sony Open on Golf Channel, NBC and ESPN+

• 7:30pm: Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Thunder vs. Knicks on NBA TV

• 8pm: No. 22 UCLA vs. Maryland in men’s college basketball on FOX

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