NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends + NBA and Tennis Coverage

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A packed newsletter today

• NBA: The Celtics are 8-3 after a loss

• Column: NFL Divisional Round betting trends

• NBA: Dejounte Murray has cleared 13.5 rebounds + assists in 15 of his past 21 games

• Tennis: Musetti is 2-0 against Shelton

• NCAAM: A look at three of today’s biggest games

• Overtime: Dawn Staley got paid

Today Craig and Jack have NBA insights, Chris covers the Australian Open, we analyze three men’s college basketball games, and in her column Abby goes game-by-game in the NFL playoffs to give you trends and her betting picks.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Did you miss Sportmoney yesterday? Head to our website today to get one month free of our daily coverage — you’ll receive our full coverage seven days a week.

Hart is Averaging 19.6 Rebounds + Assists Over Past 11 Games

By Craig Williams

Celtics -3.5 2nd quarter (-115 at ESPNBET)
NBA pundits have described the Celtics as “bored” while also acknowledging that it’s common for teams to go through such spells during this time of year. One way to snap out of boredom is losing by 13 points to the Raptors as 14-point favorites. The Celtics are 8-3 after a loss, and we imagine this is a spot where they’ll look more like themselves. We anticipate that they’ll impose their will on the Magic’s second unit, especially early in the contest. The Magic struggle to score, and they’re dealing with a number of injuries. Outside of Paolo Banchero, who has yet to log 30 minutes since making his return from an oblique tear, they’ll be light on offense.

Magic under 100.5 points alternate (-150 at DraftKings)
Given the Magic’s scoring woes combined with the Celtics’ embarrassing loss to the Raptors, we’re envisioning a stout defensive performance from the hosts. The Celtics rank top 10 in defensive rating over their past 10 games, while the Magic rank dead last in offensive rating over the same span. That means despite being the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference, they are worse offensively than the Hornets and the Wizards right now. They haven’t been much better over the course of the full season either. Banchero’s return will eventually help once he’s back in rhythm, but in the meantime we can see them struggling to break beyond the century mark. They’ve been held below 100 points five times across their past 10 games.

Knicks -4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
The Knicks have sputtered a bit of late, but if you look a little more closely at their past 10 games, one can see that their 5-5 stretch isn’t reason for alarm. Pay attention to Karl-Anthony Towns’ status prior to the game, but the Knicks demonstrated they can score, win, and cover without him in their Wednesday night contest against the 76ers. The Wolves are coming off of a home loss against the Warriors, and they’re 6-11-1 against the spread after a defeat. Finally, we’re leaning into the Knicks’ and Wolves’ relative home/road splits. Tonight’s contest will be played at the Garden, where the Knicks have elevated their performance this season.

Knicks vs. Timberwolves over 218 points (-110 at bet365)
We like the Knicks — with or without Towns — to enjoy offensive success against the Wolves, who have employed a more porous defense in recent weeks. They’re also slightly more liberal defensively on the road. The Knicks, meanwhile, in spite of their 5-5 stretch over the past 10, still rank ninth in offensive rating over that span. They’ve also loosened up the defensive reins since the calendar flipped, so Anthony Edwards — plus former Knick Julius Randle — should have enough freedom to light up the scoreboard along with the hosts.

Josh Hart over 15.5 assists + rebounds (-120 at FanDuel)
Hart is quietly grooving in his do-a-bit-of-everything role, averaging 13 rebounds and 6.6 assists across his past 11 games. And he reached 16 combined assists and rebounds eight times over that stretch. He’s performed up to this level both with and without Towns in the lineup, though it’s still not a bad idea to check in on the big man’s status. There will be fewer boards to corral with Towns on the floor, but we still wouldn’t necessarily back away from this prop —  Hart dished out double-digit dimes four times over that 11-game stretch. Finally, the Knicks continue to fire on all cylinders offensively as a unit, ranking No. 3 in offensive rating across their past 10 games, a factor that will help Hart hit the over.

Raptors under 109.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
It’s time to break up the Raptors, who have won two straight, including a 13-point upset over the Celtics. Sarcasm aside, we’re not hopping on the Raptors bandwagon and instead expect the Bucks to smother them defensively at home. The Bucks rank No. 5 in defensive rating over their past 10 games compared to the Raptors, who check in at No. 26 in offensive rating over that same span. The Raptors are 1-18 on the road, and given that atrocious record, it’s no surprise that they score less frequently and less efficiently away from home.

Nuggets moneyline  (+100 at Caesars)
Nikola Jokic (elbow) and Jamal Murray (knee) are listed as questionable, obviously big time factors to consider. The odds will shorten considerably if they’re active. Our play both backs the Nuggets to beat the Heat without them while also locking in odds that will be downright friendly if they do suit up. The Heat are playing a tepid brand of basketball of late, thanks partly to the ongoing saga with Jimmy Butler. They’re 5-5 over their past 10 and have lost two straight. The Nuggets rank third in the league in offensive rating over their past 10 contests, and also outpace, albeit slightly, the Heat in defensive rating over that span.

Labar: NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends

It has begun: The phone calls and texts from friends who rarely EVER bet during the regular season asking me who and what they should put their money on this weekend. Don’t you just love the NFL postseason? As I am sure several of you are getting these same calls and texts, in an effort to help you, your family, and these same friends, I figured what a great time to whip up a one-sheeter for us all to utilize and share with others. Here are key trends, lines and notes for all four games...

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Gafford Has Opportunities Facing a Smaller Thunder Lineup

By Jack Dougherty

Trey Murphy over 26.5 points + rebounds (-105 at DraftKings)
Murphy has been on fire since returning from a three-game absence earlier this month. Over his past three games, the Pelicans forward is averaging 36.3 points + rebounds, 18.3 shot attempts and 11.7 rebound chances per game. He’s also 25/25 from the free-throw line in that span. Murphy should be able to stay hot against the Jazz, which give up the fifth-most points per game (23.46) and made threes per game (2.82) to opposing power forwards and have ruled out seven players. 

Dejounte Murray over 13.5 rebounds + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
Murray is another player who’s stepped up for the Pelicans during their stretch of five wins in eight games. The Washington product has cleared this line in four straight games and 15 of his past 21. Tonight he’ll be going up against a starting backcourt of Collin Sexton and Keyonte George, two of the worst defensive guards in the NBA. It’s no wonder the Jazz give up the second-most assists per game to opposing point guards (10.54). Murray is listed on the injury report, but if he plays, this is a great matchup for him to stuff the stat sheet.

Cody Williams over 7.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
It’s time to buy low on Williams after two rough shooting games in which he went a combined 4/18 from the field and 2/10 from three. The volume should still be there for Williams, as Utah will be without seven key contributors on Friday night. That should force the Colorado rookie into the starting lineup for the third straight game. Williams played 37 and 30 minutes, respectively, in those starts, and the Jazz have no choice but to play him most of the game with so many players injured. He just needs to play with more confidence and look for open shots.

Bulls first half -2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
The Hornets can’t seem to figure out how to start games off strong. Charlotte is 14-23 overall and 6-12 on the road against the spread in the first half. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 22-19 ATS in the first half, and they’ve taken a lead to the break in three of their past four games. Chicago is playing better basketball right now, and it’ll look to build an early cushion against a notoriously slow-starting team.

Daniel Gafford over 21.5 points + rebounds (-120 at FanDuel)
Gafford moved back into the starting lineup on Wednesday and dropped 27 points on 12/13 from the floor and grabbed 12 rebounds on 23 chances. Jason Kidd must’ve loved what he saw from the big man, and he should go right back to Gafford tonight with Oklahoma City missing Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein inside. The Thunder have no answers for big, athletic centers with those two guys off the court, so Gafford should be busy for the second straight game. 

Ja Morant under 23.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
This isn’t a great matchup for Morant in the scoring department, as the Spurs are giving up the third-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (22.65) this year. They also have Victor Wembanyama and his eight-foot wingspan guarding the paint, which is a problem for Morant because he loves to attack the rim and score inside. These two just faced off two days ago, and Morant attempted only 13 shots and scored 21 points. He’ll need to be extremely efficient to clear this line in a tough matchup.

Austin Reaves to record a double-double (+390 at FanDuel)
Reaves has been a stat-stuffing machine of late. The Lakers guard is averaging 20.4 points, 9.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game over his past nine games, and he finished with a double-double six times in that span. He even recorded a triple-double against the Warriors, so we have a chance to hit this prop on assists or rebounds. Brooklyn is a defensive mess right now, and Reaves can take advantage.

Navarro Faces a Struggling Jabeur in the Third Round at the Australian Open

By Chris Farley

Emma Raducanu moneyline (+700 at DraftKings)
Amanda Anisimova has looked as sharp as any tennis player in the world heading into Melbourne. Against Raducanu she won just 8 games, swept by the Brit in a match where she was the favorite. Raducanu looks like she's in top-form, and clearly she's comfortable in "The Land Down Under," saying, "In the last two matches I’ve had, the crowd has been amazing with the support here. I’ve really felt at home." Raducanu is 0-3 against Iga Swiatek historically and she's never won a set, but the Pole has never faced Raducanu in the condition she's in now, the same form that won her the U.S. Open in 2021. Swiatek is as legitimate as it gets, but an upset is more possible than the odds suggest. 

Emma Raducanu vs. Iga Swiatek over 18.5 games (-132 at FanDuel)
Even if Raducanu doesn't beat Swiatek, that doesn't mean this will be a short match. The two have battled three times, with all three matches going just 2 sets in favor of the Pole. But only one match, in 2023 when Raducanu was consistently dealing with ankle and wrist issues, fell under this number. Raducanu's comments to the media suggest she's playing very carefree, in her own words saying, "It is going to be a match without many external expectations of me." The Brit is performing like an elite, yet to lose a set and showing a different gear in high-pressure moments. Expect her to prolong this fourth meeting.

Emma Navarro moneyline (-120 at BetOnline)
Ons Jabeur was once one of the top players, routinely making it to at least the quarterfinals in one major tournament after another. Last season saw her form diminish greatly, devolved because of injuries and mental lapses on the court. She's done well so far in Australia, but in her last outing against Camila Osorio she was visibly crying for the entire match. Apparently, Ons was dealing with a bout with asthma, not the best sign for her prospects in hot and humid Melbourne. Emma Navarro has been the exact opposite, seemingly unaffected by any physical feat and ice cold on the hard court. She's also every bit as talented as Ons. Advantage, Navarro.

Danielle Collins moneyline (+223 at Bookmaker)
The 31-year old Collins was defiant after her win against Australian and fan favorite, Destanee Aiava. Despite hearing a chorus of boos throughout the contest, Collins was victorious again in impressive fashion, overcoming a push from the home underdog and dominating her in the final set. Collins has just been vicious lately, and the stats show it (she earned a 79% first serve win-rate on Wednesday). Madison Keys is a top player, but she has yet to win a set by more than two games in this tournament, and her last match, a 3-set thriller against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, will undoubtedly affect her energy in the Melbourne heat. 

Elina Svitolina vs. Jasmine Paolini over 2.5 sets (+120 at FanDuel)
Two opponents who have never met before, Svitolina and Paolini own contrasting styles that might take time for both players to figure out. From an avant-garde perspective, Svitolina is the more polished player, traditional in her style and using finesse and dynamic returns to break her enemies. Paolini is completely unconventional, small for a women's competitor but ferocious on the court. The Italian went to two straight Finals in 2024, the French Open and Wimbledon, in a nearly unstoppable run, proving she deserves top-tier respect. Both women glided through their second rounds, sweeping their opponents. We doubt this will reflect anything similar.

Lorenzo Musetti moneyline (+135 at BetOnline and Bovada)
Few Australian Open players are catching more attention than Ben Shelton. The 22-year old phenom is showing signs that he's ready to ascend into top-10 territory, only broken once in two fairly dominant wins over good competition. The market is taking a strong position on the young gun, but we see value elsewhere. Lest the market forget, Musetti is 2-0 against Shelton, with a recent win at the 2024 Miami Open. Musetti is also 22, but he has far more experience in majors (he advanced to the third round or better six times, including a semifinal appearance last year at Wimbledon), and his backhand is a great combatant against the lefty. We'll fade the steam.

Betting Trends for Providence vs. Villanova, IU vs. OSU and Iowa vs. UCLA

Providence (9-9, 3-4 Big East) vs. Villanova (11-7, 4-3 Big East)

• Spread: Villanova -8.5 (-110), Providence +8.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Villanova -420, Providence +320

• Total (139.5): Over -115, Under -105

• Trends

  • Villanova is 7-1 ATS in their past 8 home games

  • The over has hit in 7 of the past 10 Villanova home games

  • Wesley Cardet Jr. has gotten at least one assist in 14 of his last 17 road games (2.2 average)

Indiana (13-5, 4-3 Big Ten) vs. Ohio State (10-7, 2-4 Big Ten)

• Spread: Ohio State -7.5 (-110), Indiana +7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Ohio State -330, Indiana +260

• Total (150.5): Over -110, Under -110

• Trends

  • The over has hit in 14 of the past 20 games where Ohio State is the favorite

  • Ohio State Buckeyes is 20-10 ATS in their past 30 games

  • Micah Parrish has scored at least 10 points in seven straight home games (13.0 average)

Iowa (12-5, 3-3 Big Ten) vs. UCLA (11-6, 2-4 Big Ten)

• Spread: UCLA -6.5 (-108), Iowa +6.5 (-112)

• Moneyline: UCLA -275, Iowa +220

• Total (151.5): Over -110, Under -110

• Trends

  • UCLA is 7-3 ATS in past last 10 home games

  • The under hit in 7 of the past 10 UCLA home games

  • Drew Thelwell has gone over 14.5 points + rebs + assists in 11 of his past 14 road games (18.8 average)

In the News 

• Dawn Staley got a $25.5 million contract to stay at South Carolina, making her the highest-paid coach in women’s basketball.

• The AP looks at the CFP championship game by the numbers.

• Jimmy Butler is no longer suspended, but the Heat apparently don’t want him to play.

• Dick Vitale will be back in action for ESPN next Saturday.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Magic vs. Celtics on ESPN or Australian Open coverage on ESPN2

• 8pm: Indiana vs. Ohio State in men’s college basketball on FOX

• 9:30pm: Grizzlies vs. Spurs on ESPN

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