Jesse Winker Has Gone Over 1.5 Runs + Hits + RBI 11 Times in June

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Euro 2024 action 
- MLB: Padres home struggles 
- Column: About MLB 1st innings
- News: All-SEC CWS

Euro 2024 is wide open, as England, France and Germany all have about the same odds to win this year (FanDuel actually has them all at +390). England faces Denmark at noon ET, but the most interesting matchup of the day is Spain vs. Italy, who have combined to win three of the past four Euros but aren’t up to their usual standards. Spain is -210 to win the group and Italy is at +170, while Spain is +125 to win today’s match, Italy is +260, and a tie is +200.

In today’s newsletter, Craig is covering Seth Lugo’s chances to stop the Royals’ inexplicable skid against the A’s and Spencer Arrighetti’s likelihood to pitch into the fifth inning because he’s facing the White Sox. And in her weekly column, Abby digs in on the importance of the first inning in MLB and has some fascinating stats to share.

Diamondbacks under 3.5 runs (+110 at DraftKings)
Southpaw MacKenzie Gore is quietly on a nice run, particularly over his last five starts. The Nats won, covered, and held opponents to under 3.5 runs in four of those turns. They’ve also won eight of their last 10 overall. The Diamondbacks have strong splits against left-handers, but they have struggled against power pitchers, and Gore, for his part, has demonstrated an ability to quiet teams with good numbers versus lefties.

Jesse Winker over 1.5 combined runs + hits + RBI (-130 at DraftKings)
Nationals left fielder Jesse Winker is on fire of late with a .400/.500/.480 batting line in June, and continues to inflict the majority of his damage against right-handed pitchers. He’s hit the over in 11 instances this month, including six multi-hit games. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson owns a 5.49 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, numbers that suggest the Nationals — and Winker in particular — will have ample opportunity to make noise offensively.

Royals -1.5 (+114 at FanDuel)
Seth Lugo assumes the role of stopper today as the Royals are in the midst of a three-game skid and looking to avoid a sweep in Oakland. Kansas City has won and covered five of Lugo’s last seven starts overall, but we like what they’ve combined to do on the road in particular: Lugo is excelling away from home with a 1.83 ERA and the Royals are 7-1 in his eight road starts.

Spencer Arrighetti over 15.5 outs (-102 at FanDuel)
We’re picking on the White Sox offense in this spot and banking on Spencer Arrighetti to provide the Astros with some length. Arrighetti has been inconsistent — to say the least — but from May 2 through June 10, he posted a 3.89 ERA across 41.2 innings. Chicago will help Arrighetti hit the over: They’re 5-11 in June (.313) with a high strikeout and low walk percentage, in addition to sporting a paltry .183 average against power pitchers.

Mariners -0.5 first 7 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo opened 2024 with three mediocre outings before hitting his stride. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, and completed at least six innings in 10 of them. The Guardians are 7-7 and scoring less prolifically in June. We’re putting a little faith in the light-hitting Mariners here as well, but lefty Logan Allen (5.30 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) will provide them with opportunities to score.

Brewers moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
For whatever reasons, the Padres struggle at home across numerous categories, including win-loss, runs scored, and run differential. They’re 6-11 overall in June. The Brewers, meanwhile, are on the other end of the spectrum. They’re 9-7 in June and plus-.500 on the road. Their +35 run differential away from home is sixth-best in MLB. The Padres are 0-3 in rookie Adam Mazur’s first three starts, two of which ended before he could complete four frames.

Dodgers -1.5 first 5 innings (+102 at FanDuel)
The Rockies managed to claim one game in their four-game set against the Dodgers, but we’re going to operate under the presumption that it’s the only one they get. Colorado is 4-13 in June with a 7.04 ERA, so we’re expecting the Dodgers — even without Mookie Betts — to put runs on the board while starter Gavin Stone — 2.17 ERA across his last eight games — keeps the Rockies’ bats under control.

The Evolution and Current State of MLB First Innings

It’s been about a month of writing these columns, and I wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who has been reading and (hopefully) enjoying them! With that being said, I’ve been taking to social media to get people's suggestions and requests on what they want to read about as I continue to think of new ideas and topics each week. 

For this week, Jared Smith from Fox Sports Radio, Live on the Line and VSIN Live requested I dive into a discussion regarding the first inning in baseball. What makes it so unique compared to the other innings? What do the statistics say? What do baseball experts say? What about players/former players? 

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

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