Celtics Have Gone Over Tonight's Total (121.5) in 4 of 5

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at NFL futures as we near season’s midway point

• NBA: Hawks defense ranks 28th so far

• Column: How preseason college football predictions look now

• More NBA: Nuggets are allowing 60 points/game in the first half

• College Football: Army has scored a TD on all 7 of their opening drives

• MLB Futures: Padres looking up in 2025

• Sportmoney x PFF: Our NFL Week 9 player rundown

• Overtime: Toughest NFL schedules for the 2nd half of the season

The last week of the first half of the NFL season is underway, so we wanted to take a look at where some futures currently sit (odds via FanDuel):

• Most Regular Season Passing Yards: Brock Purdy (+300), Geno Smith (+330), Baker Mayfield (+380), Dak Prescott (+550), Kirk Cousins (+700)

• Most Regular Season Rushing Yards: Derrick Henry (-210), Saquon Barkley (+350), Kyren Williams (+1300)

• Most Regular Season Receiving Yards: CeeDee Lamb (+110), Justin Jefferson (+145), Ja’Marr Chase (+470)

• Most Regular Season Passing TDs: Baker Mayfield (+120), Sam Darnold (+550), Jordan Love (+650), Jared Goff (+650), Joe Burrow (+1000), Lamar Jackson (+1000)

• AFC Champion: Chiefs (+200), Ravens (+330), Bills (+380), Texans (+700), Steelers (+1400)

• NFC Champion: Lions (+320), 49ers (+400), Eagles (+600), Packers (+700), Vikings (+950)

• Super Bowl Champion: Chiefs (+450), Ravens (+650), Lions (+650), 49ers (+750), Bills (+850)

In today’s newsletter, Craig and Chris give you double NBA coverage, Jack is tracking college football, and in her column Abby looks at how college football preseason predictions stack up against the current reality. And as a bonus, Craig has a quick look ahead at MLB futures.

- Abe Rakov

P.S. Miss our Friday NFL coverage? We’re launching Sportmoney Daily tomorrow to give you research and analysis 7 days a week. If you want our daily coverage (including before kickoff on NFL Sundays), upgrade to Sportmoney Daily on our website today and we’ll give you your first month free (it’s just $2.99/month after that).

Celtics Scored Over 121.5 in 4 of First 5 games

By Craig Williams

Knicks -6.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
The Knicks are efficient offensively, they just play at a snail’s pace. That’s nothing new, but it’s their defense that is misleading. Their rating remains skewed after being shot out of the gym against the Celtics in the opener, but they’re going to be tough on a Pistons team that is poor offensively. We actually like that the Knicks are on the road here. Madison Square Garden can bring out the best in otherwise ordinary teams. The Pistons played the Knicks tough in two of three at the Garden last season. But the Knicks won and covered each of their last two matchups in Detroit by a combined score of 43 points.

Magic under 104.5 points (-104.5 at DraftKings)
The Magic are struggling offensively on the road so far, and they’re entering the second game of a five-game road trip. Cleveland will be riding high — in theory — as they’re undefeated and coming off of wins against the Knicks and the Lakers. They need to guard against a letdown, but they should have an excited Friday night crowd behind them if they need a little extra spark. Their offensive turnaround has been impressive, but they continue to play stingy defense as well, and that’s what we’re banking on tonight.

Boston over 121.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
The Celtics are entering the second game of their four-game road trip, a game which also happens to be the first leg of a same-city, back-to-back in Charlotte. The Celtics have gone over 121.5 points in four of their first five contests, and they were 17-4 following a loss last season, so we like them to be locked in tonight. The Hornets are scoring plenty so far, but they’re not showing up on defense, a promising formula for a high-scoring Celtics showing. Finally, from a mentality standpoint, it’s reasonable to consider the degree to which the Celtics will want to break the Hornets’ will on night one. 

Kings -5.5 alternate (-116 at FanDuel)
We’re accepting less potential profit here in exchange for a smaller spread. The Kings are 1-2-1 ATS this season, but we like them against the Hawks despite being on the road. The Hawks are riding a three-game skid while the Kings are eyeing their third straight win. The issue with the Hawks is their 28th-ranked defense, a weakness that will be susceptible to the Kings, who enter with the league’s seventh-best offensive rating. They are eighth in defensive rating as well. They also defended better on the road last season than they did at home, so we know it’s something that is in their DNA.

Labar: Assessing Preseason Predictions as the First CFP Rankings Approach

We blinked and it’s Week 10. Excuse me, but what? We are quickly approaching a HUGE day, Tuesday, November 5th, for no other reason (; besides the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings of course. Preseason rankings and predictions are such a funny thing, especially with the uncertainty of how this season would play out. There are so many variables and factors involved. Often we’re spot on, other times we’re just way out in left field with who we think will finish the year as the last man standing. 

With this November expected to be one of the most unique and exciting we have witnessed in college football, I figured now is the perfect time to check in on preseason predictions and assess where those teams are currently, while giving you an idea of the current landscape headed into a crucial stretch of the season. 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Thunder are Allowing a League-Low 94.8 Points per Game

By Chris Farley

Pacers -4 (-112 at FanDuel)
At first glance this might seem like an A+ position for the Pelicans. Indiana is fresh off a huge win against the Celtics at home two nights ago, an exhausting contest that went into OT, and now the Pacers are back on the road for a tough outing. Advantage Pels, right? Not so much. Through 5 games the Pelicans have been regressing. Only the Jazz have a worse net rating and they're a despicable 27th in offensive efficiency. Even their defense, which is usually stout, ranks 19th. We'd still consider the Pelicans as a home dog in most cases, but they'll be without their leader, CJ McCollum, and Herbert Jones tonight, two stalwarts they could use against a Pacers' squad that's riding fresh new momentum. We'll ride the hotter program.

Tyrese Haliburton 10+ assists (+130 at DraftKings)
It hasn't been an easy start for Tyrese Haliburton. The two-time All Star is averaging just 14.6 ppg through 5 contests, a stark difference and nearly six points under his norm from last season. We trust that Haliburton will find his footing eventually, but that's unlikely to happen overnight. And the good news for us: When Haliburton goes cold from the floor, he also becomes very unselfish. He's stacked up double-digit assists in two straight games, which has resulted in multiple big performances for Pascal Siakam and Benedict Mathurin. Off a seminal win against Boston, a game where Haliburton accrued 12 assists, we expect a rinse-and-repeat approach Friday night.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves over 219.5 points (-110 at BetOnline, Bovada and Bookmaker)
Two titans of the Western Conference will clash on Friday night and both are in need of massive improvement if they hope to have better outlooks this season. While we think they'll regress in every regard as their 82-game schedules go on, right now neither defense is showing they're anywhere close to playing better. Both defenses rank as mediocre to poor. Denver has been particularly bad (allowing 118.8 ppg). Meanwhile, guys like Jamal Murray (38% from the floor, 35% from beyond the arc) and Anthony Edwards (45.6% from the floor) are bound to shoot better, especially in marquee matchups like this one. We have this total at 227, so we must look at the over.

Timberwolves 1st half -2.5 (-110 at Bovada)
It's been a surprising start for the Nuggets. Champions just two seasons ago, Denver started off the 2024-25 campaign with a pair of head-scratching losses, particularly their flop at home against the Clippers last week. In their two most recent games, they found themselves playing catch-up against mediocre programs to eke by with a pair of OT victories. The Nuggets have had terribly slow starts, ranked 28th in net rating and allowing 60 ppg to opposing offenses in the first half. Minnesota is historically a slow-starter, too, but their defense (54.8 ppg allowed in the first half) is at its best when they play with a lead. After 3 days of rest, we'll trust the home team early.

Thunder vs. Blazers 1st quarter under 55 points (+100 at BetOnline)
One of the most surprising aspects to the early NBA season is how well the Thunder are playing defense. Ranked 1st by a wide margin, they're only allowing 94.8 ppg (1st) and no team has better marks against two or three-point shooters. Even more remarkably, they're only permitting 22.8 ppg in the first quarter. The Portland offense has been lackluster, as expected, ranked among the bottom-5 units in the Association. And this is a very sleepy spot for the Thunder, who have another contest Saturday at the Clippers. Shockingly, Portland is also the only team permitting less than the Thunder in the first quarter (22.4), too. 

DeAndre Ayton over 11.5 rebounds (-102 at FanDuel)
Usually we're not big fans of DeAndre Ayton. A guy that misses a game because of an "ice storm" isn't a player we take seriously, but there's an angle that's a little too obvious for us to ignore in this late-night contest. For all of their stellar marks, the OKC Thunder haven't been a great rebounding team. Now, much of that is because they've shot very well (i.e., there's no need for rebounds) and they force their opponents into terribly difficult shots (which creates more rebounding opportunities for their foes). Regardless, they rank dead-last in opponent rebounds per game (63.8). And, at this point, Ayton has been a savage under the rim, accruing at least 11 rebounds in all five starts. God help us; we're looking at Ayton tonight.

Injuries Could Keep Ohio State vs. Penn State Showdown Low Scoring

By Jack Dougherty

Same Game Parlay: Ashton Jeanty over 182.5 rushing yards + 2+ touchdowns (-108 at FanDuel)
This is a Heisman statement game for Jeanty. The Boise State running back lost some ground in the Heisman race last week when he rushed 33 times for 128 yards and only one touchdown against UNLV. Before that, he went over 182.5 rushing yards and scored at least two touchdowns in five of six games to start the season. Jeanty should bounce back against a San Diego State defense that ranks 92nd in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. 

Ohio State vs. Penn State under 46.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s tough to pick a side in this game due to Drew Allar’s injury uncertainty. We expect the Penn State quarterback to play on his banged-up knee, but he likely won’t be 100% in terms of his mobility. That will limit what offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki likes to do with this group. On the other side, Ohio State could be down to its third-string left tackle, which is bad news against Abdul Carter and PSU’s ferocious defensive line.

Arkansas +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Arkansas has had Ole Miss’s number over the last decade. The Razorbacks are 6-4 straight up against the Rebels since 2014, and only one of their four losses came by more than seven points. Lane Kiffin is 2-2 against Arkansas since taking the Ole Miss job, but the wins came by just one and seven points. The Ole Miss defense has been fantastic all year, but the offense has sputtered since SEC play began. It’s tough to see the Rebels winning by margin here. 

Army -6.5 first quarter (-122 at FanDuel)
Army is the best team in the country at turning scripted drives into touchdowns. The Black Knights have scored a touchdown on all seven of their opening drives this season, and they rank fourth in the nation in points per first quarter (10.3). Air Force, meanwhile, ranks 129th (1.7). The Falcons gave up 7.8 yards per play to Navy earlier this season, and Army has a more efficient version of the triple-option offense. 

Arizona moneyline (+195 at Bet365)
It’s surprising to see UCF favored by nearly a touchdown in this game. The Knights have lost five straight, and Gus Malzahn made some big changes this week by firing defensive coordinator Ted Roof and appointing a new playcaller for the offense. Major coaching changes typically don’t pay dividends right away. Arizona has looked terrible all month, but the dynamic QB-WR duo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan could shred this UCF defense going through a transition phase. 

Mississippi State team total over 20.5 first half points (-120 at DraftKings)
Mississippi State’s offense has found a groove with Michael Van Buren Jr. under center. The Bulldogs put up 31 points and 6.1 yards per play against Georgia, 24 against Texas A&M and 25 against Arkansas. Van Buren Jr. has thrown for 857 yards and eight touchdowns in that span. Now they get the chance to flex their muscles against a UMass defense that allowed Missouri to put up 45 points in three quarters before it called off the dogs. 

TCU vs. Baylor over 63.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
This should be a fun one between two teams that don’t know how to play slow. Baylor and TCU rank 13th and 15th, respectively, in the country in seconds per play. The expected tempo combined with Baylor’s and TCU’s ability to generate explosive plays make this a prime target for an over. 

MLB Futures: Look at Padres, Wait on Mets

By Craig Williams

Padres NL winner (+850 at DraftKings)
The Padres nearly beat the Dodgers in the 2024 NLDS, the same round in which the Dodgers fell to the Diamondbacks in 2023. Divisional foes face off against one another more often in the NLDS under MLB’s current playoff structure. And we’ve seen time and again how much trouble the favorites can have in short a series against division rivals. Another factor in favor of the Padres is aggressive ownership that will pursue big names and big producers. Could they entice Soto to return? Will they complete another blockbuster trade? The Padres’ NL championship odds will shrink once they make a splash on the hot stove this winter.

Fade New York Mets (for the time being)
This isn’t to throw shade on the Mets, who have shown signs of righting the organizational ship in recent seasons. This is just a warning to not overestimate them in 2025. They were ahead of schedule this season and for a variety of reasons managed to strike lightning in a bottle. They have a quality core to build around, but there will be significant turnover this offseason. The makeup of the team — on and off the field — will require time, work, and adversity to gel. President of Baseball Operations David Stearns has proven himself to be a sharp baseball mind, and his focus has remained sustainability. If the Mets can land Soto we’ll revisit this position, but it’s not a given that they make a headlining splash this offseason.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 9 Rundown: Running Backs

• Lions RB David Montgomery is one of the best red-zone RBs in the NFL. His nickname  “knuckles” explains just how rough it is to tackle him (red zone stats among RBs): 

  • 74.8 Rushing Grade (4th) 

  • 79.9 PFF Grade (4th) 

  • 7 Rush TDs (T-2nd) 

  • 21 carries (T-10th) 

• Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby has been a breakout star for Jacksonville this season (stats among RBs): 

  • 0.34 missed tackles forced per attempt (2nd) 

  • 387 rush yards after contact (9th) 

  • 29 missed tackles forced on runs (5th) 

  • 82.0 Rushing Grade 

  • 79.1 PFF Grade

• The Jets’ Breece Hall has been a reliable outlet for Aaron Rodgers in the passing game this season (receiving stats among RBs): 

  • 45 targets (2nd) 

  • 33 catches (2nd) 

  • 316 yards (1st) 

  • 291 yards after the catch (4th) 

  • 143 receiving yards after contact (1st) 

  • 9 catches gaining a first down (T-7th) 

  • 8 missed tackles forced on RECs (T-5th) 

  • 5 catches gaining 15+ yards (T-5th) 

• Another Lions’ RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, has been phenomenal for the Lions rushing attack, specifically ‘getting ahead of the sticks’ on 1st down this season (rushing stats on 1st down): 

  • 54 carries (23rd) 

  • 369 yards (6th) 

  • 6.8 yards per attempt (T-1st) 

  • 16 missed tackles forced on runs (T-8th) 

  • 7 rushes gaining 10+ yards (T-15th) 

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF rundown, which also includes quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, on our website: sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• ESPN’s first baseball power rankings for 2025: “Now that the Fall Classic is over, we're flipping the page to our annual Way-Too-Early Power Rankings. We're ranking the teams based on where they stand entering the offseason -- one in which Juan Soto will be the most-sought-after free agent on the market (and undoubtedly improve the ranking of whichever team lands him). Let's dive right in.” [ESPN]

• Mahomes wants a WNBA team in KC: “Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the ownership group of the Kansas City Current, who play in the National Women’s Soccer League, have been meeting with WNBA officials a bout bringing an expansion franchise to the city. Mahomes confirmed the talks Thursday, saying that it was a ‘no-brainer’ to try to bring women’s hoops to Kansas City.” [Associated Press]

• CBS Sports ranks the toughest schedules for rest of the NFL season: “Now seems like a good time to rank the five scariest schedules for the second half of the NFL season. The season won't officially hit the halfway point until Week 9 is over, but we're not going to wait until Week 9 is over, we're going to rank things now. This ranking is going to take a look at the contenders that will have to face the toughest road over the second half of the season, and Bears fans, I have some bad news for you, things could get ugly going forward.” [CBS Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2pm: The Panthers face the Stars in Finland on NHL Network

• 9:30pm: Denver visits Minnesota in the second half of an NBA double header on ESPN (the Magic and Cavs kick off at 7pm)

Photo of the Day