14 NBA Games + Feast Week Makes for a Ton of Pre-Thanksgiving Basketball Options

In today’s newsletter…

  • Leading Off: The College Football Playoff picture

  • NBA: Bulls are third in offensive efficiency over their past five games

  • NCAAM: Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS with covers as 36.5-point and 27.5-point favorites

  • More NBA: Anthony Edwards is averaging a career-high 11.2 3-point attempts a game

  • NFL: Week 13 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings

  • Overtime: Aaron Rodgers’ 2025 plans are undecided

Leading Off Section

Does the SEC have a case that three-loss Alabama is better than one-loss Indiana? Neither would have much of a shot to win the championship, so it doesn’t really matter, but the campaign to get into the first College Football Playoff is well underway.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark told Yahoo Sports that “I see no rationale for the Big 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” despite his conference’s mediocre season. He went on to argue, “The data doesn’t lie. From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State.” Boise State has only lost once this season — to No. 1 Oregon on a field goal as time expired. Tough sell.

With the Big 12, Mountain West and maybe American Athletic Conference fighting for the final bye, the SEC, Big Ten and ACC champions are all but guaranteed a week off to start the playoff. The biggest question left for the SEC and Big Ten is how many teams they’ll get in the field (the ACC likely maxes out at two).

The latest CFP Rankings came out last night, and here’s where everyone stands (odds via DraftKings):

  • 1) Oregon: In the playoff; bye with wins against Washington and in the Big Ten Championship (+125 to win the Big Ten)

  • 2) Ohio State: In the playoff; bye if the Buckeyes can avenge their loss to Oregon, assuming they beat Michigan on Saturday (-150 to win the Big Ten)

  • 3) Texas: In the playoff; bye if they beat Texas A&M on Saturday and Georgia in the SEC Championship (+175 to win the SEC)

  • 4) Penn State: Almost certainly hosting a playoff game

  • 5) Notre Dame: Has done enough to host a playoff game, but would slide with a loss to USC (-650 to make playoff)

  • 6) Miami: Moved up two spots this week, which should be enough to get them in the playoff with a win over Syracuse even with a loss in the ACC Championship (-280 to make playoff)

  • 7) Georgia: Almost certainly the playoff; bye with a win against Georgia Tech and in the SEC Championship (-155 to win the SEC)

  • 8) Tennessee: In with a win over Vanderbilt; likely out with a loss (-500 to make playoff)

  • 9) SMU: A win against Cal should get the Mustangs in the playoff whether or not they win the ACC Championship (-160 to make playoff)

  • 10) Indiana: In the playoff unless the Hoosiers collapse against a terrible Purdue team or there are two weeks of chaos and the committee has a change of heart (-2000 to make playoff)

  • 11) Boise State: In with a win over Oregon State and then a win in the Mountain West Championship game, likely with a bye (-300 to make playoff)

  • 12) Clemson: Needs to beat South Carolina and for Miami to lose to make it to the ACC Championship — or else they’ll be jumped in the rankings or replaced by a lower-ranked conference winner (+180 to make playoff)

  • 13) Alabama: Unlikely to take Indiana’s spot but could find a way in with multiple losses between Miami, SMU and Clemson (+250 to make playoff)

  • 14) Ole Miss: Very likely has no shot, but the committee is showing they have a lot of love for the SEC with this ranking (+500 to make playoff)

  • 15) South Carolina: Also likely has no shot, but they can ensure rival Clemson stays out too with a win over the Tigers on Saturday (+340 to make playoff)

  • 16) Arizona State: With a win over Arizona and in the Big 12 Championship, they would almost certainly make the field as the 5th-highest ranked conference champion (+135 to make playoff). No. 18 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU, and No. 25 Colorado could get in instead as Big 12 champs (along with five(!) other teams in the conference that are mathematically still in the hunt), unless…

  • 17) Tulane: Could the Green Wave sneak into the playoff ahead of the Big 12 Champion if they beat Memphis on Saturday and then Army in the AAC Championship? It’s possible, as the committee clearly doesn’t believe the Big 12 is a top-tier conference this season (+300 to make playoff)

In today’s newsletter, Jack and Chris are covering the NBA slate and Craig has men’s college basketball. We also give you our Week 13 NFL projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings at the bottom of the newsletter.

— Abe Rakov

NBA Coverage

Pacers are 6-2 with League’s 6th-Best Offense at Home

Tyrese Haliburton | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

By Chris Farley

Hornets +3.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Hornets haven't been a very good team for a long time and this season has been no different (6-11), but this is a terrible spot for the Heat. Miami is coming off an OT victory on Sunday, and they hosted the Bucks last night in a loss. Now, in less than 24 hours and right before Thanksgiving, Jimmy Butler (who has admitted how tough it is to stay motivated in the regular season) and his crew head to Charlotte in what should be an "easy game." But that's never the case between two divisional opponents. Four out of the past five matchups have ended in margins of nine or less, and Charlotte has a clear situational edge in rest.

Terry Rozier over 9.5 points (+100 at WilliamHill)
"Scary" Terry Rozier spent five seasons with the Charlotte Hornets (2019-2024), a spot where fans could finally observe his potential. He averaged 20 ppg in his North Carolina stint, consistently a featured contributor as their starting point guard. In his first game back in Charlotte, Rozier went 7-12 for 19 points, a good performance but one that was overshadowed by Jimmy Butler's 26. Rozier is averaging just 13 ppg so far this season, which is granting us a conservatively low number to consider.

Cavs -10 (-110 consensus)
According to NBA.com, at home the Cavs have outscored their opponents by 40.5 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter and have led all 10 of their games by at least 15 points. They're 10-0 on their home floor, with an average margin of victory of 14.7 ppg, which is truly outstanding. If the Hawks were showing us a better product or at least proving they could be competitive in this matchup, we might think differently, but that's just not the case. Atlanta is 24th in net rating, with a dwindling offense that ranks 26th in its last five games. Cleveland is also coming off three full days of rest.

Pacers team total over 121.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)
The Pacers have a split personality, and it has everything to do with the venue. Indiana is 6-2 at home, where all of their rankings improve. For example, they're 18th in offense away from Indianapolis, but 6th when back at home. Both teams are banged up, but Portland just isn't a program we can trust, especially on the road. Over their past five games, no offense in the NBA is worse. And on the road, they average just 101.5 ppg. That's likely not enough to keep it close at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where the Pacers average 119.8 ppg (2nd), and we expect the home team to explode again.

Wizards team total under 105.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Fading the Washington Wizards isn't exactly rocket science. The Wizards have lost 12 games in a row and no team has a worse net rating this season. The L.A. Clippers are the complete opposite, off a humbling loss to the Celtics but one of the highest net-rated teams over their past five games — and only the Rockets have a better defensive rating. Lately Washington's offense has been more pitiful than usual, averaging just 103 ppg in the same span. Off a back-to-back, this is a terrible matchup for a tired home team.

Bulls +10.5 (-110 consensus)
The Orlando Magic are getting a ton of respect from the marketplace, which we understand, but it's a little too much, too early. Chicago is not a great team, by any means, but lately their offense has found a groove. They're third in offensive efficiency over their past five games. A back-to-back travel spot isn't an easy situation for the Bulls, and Orlando's been winning with depth and good coaching without Paulo Banchero. The issue is Orlando's offense, which is in the bottom-half of the NBA over their past five games, and their supporting cast is due for regression.

NCAAM

UNC is 7-1 SU and ATS in Past 8 Matchups Against Michigan State

RJ Davis | Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

By Craig Williams

Davidson +9.5 first half (-122 at FanDuel)
Davidson enters today’s contest 4-0 straight-up and 3-0 against the spread. They prefer a more methodical tempo, ranking 149th in pace, compared to Arizona, which comes in ranked 48th. The obvious caveat when comparing various offensive and defensive metrics is the quality of competition. Arizona lost back-to-back contests against Duke and Wisconsin, both ranked in the top 25. Meanwhile, Davidson’s strength of schedule pales in comparison. However, it’s their superior shooting — 60.5% true shooting percentage vs. Arizona’s 52.7% mark — that should allow them to hang around.

Texas A&M moneyline (-166 at FanDuel)
We’re laying the points with the Aggies, both due to what each team has done this season, and Creighton big man Ryan Kalkbrenner’s recent form. First of all, Texas A&M has been the more efficient offensive unit thus far, a factor that will weigh significantly in this matchup if the Aggies are able to establish their slower pace. It’s early in the season so there’s no need to panic over this next point, but thus far Texas A&M’s win over Ohio State is the only quality victory between the two programs. The Blue Jays dropped their past two contests as favorites, games in which Kalkbrenner struggled mightily, finishing 5 of 13 across 71 minutes against Nebraska and San Diego State.

Gonzaga -14.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
The Zags have been as advertised as the No. 3 team in the nation. They enter with the game’s second-best offensive rating and feature five double-figure scorers. That’s made possible thanks largely to Ryan Nembhard’s 9.4 assists per game. West Virginia is fairly rugged defensively, but we expect Gonzaga to simply be too much for them to contain for 40 minutes. Not to mention, Gonzaga is better than the Mountaineers in terms of defensive efficiency, settling in at No. 16 compared to West Virginia’s No. 39 rank in the category. Finally, Gonzaga has been much more impressive against their opponents, beating two Power Five foes and a perennial tournament team in San Diego State. Meanwhile, West Virginia fell by 24 at Pitt.

Cincinnati -26.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
We’re backing the Bearcats and expect them to be too much for Alabama State. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS with covers as 36.5-point and 27.5-point favorites. We anticipate Cincinnati’s depth and on-court superiority to ultimately overwhelm the Hornets. Cincinnati ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while Alabama State checks in at 118th and 285th, respectively. Additionally, Cincinnati features six players averaging 20-plus minutes compared to Alabama State’s more concentrated distribution — they have four guards averaging 28-plus minutes.

North Carolina -5 (-110 at Caesars)
The Tar Heels and Spartans are familiar with one another, as programs at least. And the Heels are 7-1, both SU and ATS, over their past eight meetings with Michigan State. The Spartans are a rugged, well-coached team. They traditionally just haven’t been a great matchup for the Heels, who, more often than not, are too much to handle offensively. Those same ingredients are present tonight as the Heels enter play 13th in offensive rating and 39th in pace; Michigan State isn’t slow, but rank outside of the top 100 in pace. Look for Elliot Cadeau and RJ Davis to lead the Heels from the backcourt and push them toward a cover. 

North Carolina vs. Michigan State over 158.5 points (-110 at Caesars)
We like the Heels to win (and cover), but not on the back of their defensive efforts. They rank 226th in defensive efficiency and surrendered 175 points across their past two contests. The Spartans rank 118th in offensive efficiency, but they should meet modest defensive resistance, providing for some relatively easy offensive possessions. We’re also considering that this is the third consecutive game for both teams. Fatigue certainly impacts offense, particularly shooting, but it’s not just a physical hurdle. Tired teams commit mental lapses in addition to physical mistakes that undermine well-intentioned defensive objectives.

NBA Coverage

Stephon Castle is Averaging 17.3 Points and 5.0 Assists in Past 6 Games

Stephon Castle | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

By Jack Dougherty

Miles McBride over 8.5 points (-125 at Bet365)
Tom Thibodeau runs a short rotation in the regular season, and McBride is a big part of it when he’s active. The fourth-year guard has played at least 20 minutes off the bench in all 12 of his games this season, and he played 28 minutes in his first game back from injury earlier this week. McBride has gone over this line in eight of 12 games this year, so this number is too low. 

Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ rebounds (-130 at FanDuel)
Hartenstein has been a welcome addition to the Thunder lineup, especially as a rebounder. The big man has grabbed 10 and 14 rebounds, respectively, in his first two games back from injury, and his minutes are only going to increase as his conditioning improves. This is an ideal matchup against the Warriors, which give up the most rebounds per game to opposing centers in the NBA(17.1).

Devon Booker under 28.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
This number is likely too high for Booker, especially with Kevin Durant back in the lineup. Booker has gone under this line in seven of nine games with Durant on the court this season and 12 of 17 games overall. This is also a tough matchup against the Nets, which give up the second-fewest points per game to opposing shooting guards (20.1).

Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (+100 at DraftKings)
You’re probably getting tired of seeing this bet, but it’s an almost automatic play whenever there’s a plus sign in front of it. Jokic is averaging 13.4 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game this season, and he’s recorded a triple-double in five of his last eight games. As for the matchup, Jokic should be able to stuff the stat sheet against a Jazz defense that ranks 11th in pace, 27th in opponent assists per game (28.0) and 25th in opponent effective field-goal percentage (55.8%). 

Anthony Edwards over 3.5 threes (-135 at DraftKings)
Edwards is still jacking up three-pointers at a career-high rate. The Timberwolves guard is averaging 11.2 three-point attempts per game this season, which is a huge step up from the 6.7 he averaged last year. Edwards has gone over this line in 13 of his 17 games this season, and this is a great matchup for him to put up (and make) a bunch of outside shots. The Kings rank 29th in the NBA in opponent three-point makes per game (15.1) and opponent three-point percentage (38.1%). Edwards has drained 11 threes on 29 attempts in two games against Sacramento this season. 

Stephon Castle over 17.5 points + assists (-113 at FanDuel)
Castle is really starting to find his confidence in the NBA. The Spurs rookie is averaging 17.3 points and 5.0 assists per game over his last six games, clearing this line in five of those contests. This offense runs its best when Castle is running the show and being aggressive, and he should keep that rolling against a struggling Lakers defense. Los Angeles has given up 122.8 points per game over its last four games. 

Scotty Pippen Jr. 15+ points (+175 at DraftKings)
Pippen Jr. has been aggressive offensively with Ja Morant out of the lineup. The Grizzlies guard averaged 13.8 points per game during Morant’s recent eight-game absence, and he scored a season-high 30 points in his last start with no Morant. This is all about increased usage and the upside Pippen Jr. has in a larger role.

NFL Coverage

Dolphins Head to Lambeau on Thanksgiving, Barkley vs. Henry Headline Sunday Slate

Xavier McKinney | Wm. Glasheen-Imagn Images

The matchup of Week 13 is the 9-2 Eagles against the 8-4 Ravens, where we get to see Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry on the same field. The Dolphins are somehow back in the playoff hunt but face a tough test against the Packers at Lambeau on Thanksgiving. And the Buccaneers, Rams and 49ers are all 5-6 and could really use a win on Sunday.

We have NFL games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday, and there are no byes this week. Here’s a summary of all the week’s games with insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats.

Bears (4-7, 0-4 Away) vs. Lions (10-1, 4-1 Home)
Thursday, 12:30pm on CBS

Category

Bears

Lions

Points per Game

20.1 (22nd)

32.7 (1st)

Point Differential

+4 (15th)

+177 (1st)

Record in Close Games

2-5

4-1

Av. Margin of Victory

14.5 (6th)

18.1 (2nd)

Turnover Differential

+9 (3rd)

+9 (3rd)

Total Penalties

70 (16th)

68 (13th)

Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats:

  • Caleb Williams has been sacked 44 times in 2024 (most in the NFL). The Lions are averaging just 1.7 sacks per game since Week 7, the 4th-fewest in the NFL over that span (Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6).

  • The Lions-Bears matchup will be just the 8th instance over the last 50 seasons that a team on a 9+ game winning streak faces a team on a 5+ game losing streak (single season streaks only). The team on the winning streak won in each of the previous 7 such matchups.

  • The Lions have scored a rushing TD in 25 consecutive games, including playoffs, the longest streak in NFL history.

Giants (2-9, 2-3 Away) vs. Cowboys (4-7, 0-5 Home)
Thursday, 4:30pm on FOX

Category

Giants

Cowboys

Points per Game

14.8 (32nd)

20.1 (22nd)

Point Differential

-89 (28th)

-98 (29th)

Record in Close Games

1-5

3-3

Av. Margin of Victory

7.5 (25th)

8.0 (24th)

Turnover Differential

-6 (25th)

-9 (30th)

Total Penalties

58 (3rd)

80 (25th)

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

  • Giants

    • RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 62.3 rush yards, 16.6 receiving yards

    • WR Malik Nabers: 5.2 receptions, 61.0 receiving yards

    • WR Wan’Dale Robinson: 4.1 receptions, 37.7 receiving yards

  • Cowboys

    • QB Cooper Rush: 217 pass yards, 1.1 pass TD

    • RB Rico Dowdle: 46.1 rush yards, 15.0 receiving yards

    • WR CeeDee Lamb: 6.6 receptions, 67.6 receiving yards

Check the rest of our Week 13 rundown, which features a breakdown of all 16 games, on our website.

Overtime Section

In the News 

  • Soto sweepstakes on a schedule: “Juan Soto appears on a timetable to decide on where to sign either before or during baseball’s winter meetings in Dallas, which run from Dec. 8-12. Soto met with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, a person familiar with the negotiations said last week, speaking to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because details were not announced. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, asked teams to submit initial offers by Thanksgiving.” [Associated Press]

  • Rodgers unsure he’ll play next season: “Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is undecided on whether he wants to continue his legendary career in 2025. If he does, he wants it to be with the New York Jets. … Rodgers, who turns 41 next Monday, said he will base his decision on how his body feels and whether the Jets want him back. [ESPN]

  • NBC breaks down 32 Fantasy Stats for Week 13

What to Watch (times are ET)

  • 5pm: Undefeated Memphis takes on No. 4 Auburn in men’s college basketball action on ESPN

  • 7:30pm: Knicks at Mavs, followed by Thunder at Warriors at 10pm, on ESPN

  • 12:30am: Late travel day? Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Houston is the nightcap on TBS

Photo of the Day

No. 1 Kansas beat Duke in what was an upset according to the sportsbooks | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

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