NFL Friday, NBA Cup and Extra College Football on Tap Today

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Friday NFL action is on today’s docket

• NBA: Trae Young is averaging 16.2 assists per game over his past 5

• College Football: Mississippi State games are averaging 64 total points over past 7 weeks

• Column: Get ready for Barkley vs. Henry as Eagles face Ravens on Sunday

• More NBA: Portland is 8-3 ATS after a loss and 5-3 as a home underdog

• Raiders vs. Chiefs: Vegas earned a season-low 1.6 yards per carry against KC in Week 8

• Overtime: Texas vs. Texas A&M is so back

The 2-9 Raiders travel to Kansas City for a Black Friday game against the 10-1 Chiefs at 3pm. It’s just one more way the NFL is trying to own every day possible the second half of the season (along with building a stronger relationship with Amazon, which is presumably paying for this game to convince viewers to buy a lot more stuff today).

Even though the Chiefs have the second-best record in the league, the two-time defending champions are hearing a lot of doubt from the outside — but they just keep winning. The Raiders are a complete mess, and now quarterback Gardner Minshew is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Here’s where the betting market currently stands (via FanDuel):

• Spread: Chiefs -13.5 (-108), Raiders +13.5 (-112)

  • KC is 4-6-1 and Vegas is 4-7 ATS

  • 68% of money and 52% of bets are with the Chiefs

• Moneyline: Chiefs -850, Raiders +590

  • KC is 10-1 and Vegas is 2-9 against the moneyline

• Total (41.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • Chiefs are 6-5 and Raiders are 8-3

You can read more stats, insights and projections about the Vegas/KC matchup later in the newsletter. In addition, Craig and Chris look at today’s 10 NBA Cup games and Jack has the college football slate. Abby’s column focuses on two MVP-caliber running backs facing off on Sunday, when Saquon Barkley and the Eagles play Derrick Henry’s Ravens.

We have the rest of the NFL covered too: Our Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown and Week 13 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings for every game are both on our website.

— Abe Rakov

Heat and Raptors Have Stayed Under in a Combined 7 of Past 8 Games

By Craig Williams

Parlay: Knicks moneyline + Hornets +13 (+164 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning on quantitative and qualitative analysis for this parlay. The Knicks are concluding a five-game road trip, and anyone who has traveled can empathize with the feeling of being a day away from resting in your own bed. That’s not enough for us to side with the Hornets to win — after all, the Knicks are 6-1 after a loss (5-2 against the spread) and will be in “bounce back” mode after losing by 15 at Dallas on Wednesday. Meanwhile, even though the Hornets have not been impressive ATS at home, the Knicks are only 4-5 ATS as a road favorite and 1-0-1 as a double-digit favorite this season. Both of those contests were at Madison Square Garden though, and they didn’t have an impending return home to distract them.

Cavaliers -5.5 (-110 at ESPNBET)
The Cavs dropped a surprising contest to the visiting Hawks on Wednesday, and they’ll play them again tonight in Atlanta. That was only the second defeat of the season for the Cavs, so we don’t have a large sample, but they covered following their loss to the Celtics. We expect them to do so again, in large part because we’re bearish on the Hawks replicating their efficiency from the field tonight. They shot 47.4% and 47.6% from the field and from three-point range, respectively. Both marks outpaced their full-season rates, and we expect them to fall back into line at home, where they’re 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS. Cleveland, meanwhile, shoots 51.7% from the field and 40.8% from beyond the arc on the season, numbers that outpace what they produced on Wednesday.

Trae Young over 11.5 assists (-105 at ESPNBET)
Our Cleveland analysis aside, we like Trae Young to continue cooking as a distributor. He’s averaging 16.2 assists over his past five contests and 12.5 on the season. He’s coming off of a career-best 22 assists in Wednesday’s win against the Cavs. We’re not banking on another 20-plus dimes, but we like that he’s up against a relatively small backcourt tandem. Young’s 49.1 assist percentage is the best of his career up to this point, and the Hawks’ No. 3 ranking in pace means plenty of possessions. Even if the Cavs ultimately cover, Young’s distribution abilities should allow him to rack up enough assists to hit the over in this category.

Pacers moneyline (-210 at ESPNBET)
We’re going to accept the juice that comes with this one because we like the metrics of the matchup but have a challenging time making a lean to the spread. The Pacers are 7-2 at home SU, but 4-4-1 ATS and 2-4-1 ATS as home favorites. The Pacers have won three in a row, but they’re 0-2-1 ATS over that stretch, another reason we’re leaning conservative in this spot. The Pistons are 0-4 against division foes and are 0-5 over their past five meetings with the Pacers, both SU and ATS. Despite this run of dominance from Indiana, we’re still building trust in this particular version of the team.

Pistons under 112.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
We’re going to piggyback off of our last play and ride with the Pistons falling under their total today. They’ve reached a degree of mediocrity on the strength of improved defense, but their offensive metrics leave a lot to be desired. The Pistons and Pacers rank 20th and 21st, respectively, in net rating, and the Pacers are not at the offensive level that they established last season — though, they’re steadily improving. All of that is to say we foresee a scenario in which the Pistons manage to keep the score close, but ultimately fall in large part due to the inability to keep up offensively. Both their points per game and offensive efficiency dip on the road, and we think they’ll struggle enough to remain under the total.

Raptors vs. Heat under 219 points (-108 at DraftKings)
The Heat are slowly getting into gear, winning three of their past four, and that lone loss came against the streaking Bucks, who have won five straight. The Heat have also stayed under in three of those four contests. Toronto, meanwhile, has remained under in each of their past four games, a span in which they’ve had Scottie Barnes back in the fold. Miami has won three of the past four head-to-head matchups, but we’re going to give the Raptors a nod for the 13-6 ATS mark. We still may not trust them offensively, but we will respect their knack for keeping contests competitive, and that’s why we’re looking for a low-scoring contest.

Celtics over 127.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Tonight’s matchup carries a bit of extra theoretical weight thanks to it being an NBA Cup contest. The Bulls lead Group C, but have arguably their toughest matchup ahead of them in the Celtics. Meanwhile, a big win will put the Celtics in prime position to claim the top spot in the group. The Celtics are superior in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and making matters worse for the Bulls is they have performed better on the road in terms of points scored, offensive efficiency, and three-point accuracy. They’re also a worse defensive unit at the United Center, setting the stage for a big performance from the C’s.

Jayson Tatum over 3.5 three-pointers made (+126 at DraftKings)
The stage appears set for Tatum to enjoy a big night, particularly from distance, against a Bulls team that doesn’t demonstrate too much defensive ruggedness or resistance. To be fair, they have forced opponents to work hard from three-point range, limiting them to 33.3% accuracy. They surrender 39.4 three-point attempts at home though, and the Celtics aren’t just any three-point shooting team — they’re first in the league with 50.6 deep attempts per contest and hit at a 37.5% clip. As for Tatum specifically, he’s shooting better from three on the road — 42.9% — than he does at home, and 40.2% in his career with three-plus days rest. 

UCF Back has Cleared Tonight’s Total (116.5 Yards) in 5 Straight Games, 8 of 11 Starts

By Jack Dougherty

East Carolina -2.5 (-110 at Bet365)
East Carolina has been on a roll since firing head coach Mike Houston and replacing him with defensive coordinator Blake Harrell, going 4-0 and averaging 45.8 points per game since the switch. Quarterback Katin Houser has this offense operating at a high level right now, and he should be able to keep it rolling against a Navy defense that’s been exposed in recent weeks. Navy QB Blake Horvath likely won’t be able to suit up for the second straight week, and the Midshipmen didn’t score a single point with Braxton Woodson under center. 

Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green under 39 points (-110 at Bet365)
Get ready for some MACtion weather in Bowling Green, Ohio. The forecast for this game is calling for freezing-cold temperatures and steady wind with gusts of 30 miles per hour. That should make it challenging for both offenses to move the ball through the air and convert positive drives into points. Bowling Green also has one of the best defenses in the MAC, as it ranks 16th in the country in points allowed per game (19.8) and 31st in opponent yards per play (4.9). 

Boise State team total over 38.5 points (+105 at DraftKings)
Boise State put up a stinker last week in its 17-13 win against Wyoming, but this is a good spot for a bounce-back performance against a terrible Oregon State defense. The Beavers rank 127th in the country in opponent yards per play (6.7), 120th in opponent points per play (0.52) and 134th in sack rate (2.05%). Ashton Jeanty should break off a few long runs, and Maddux Madson will have all day to air it off of play-action.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss over 61.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Mississippi State has turned into a profitable over team since switching to Michael Van Buren Jr. Over the past seven weeks, Bulldogs games are averaging 64 total points. Van Buren Jr. has had success putting up points against strong defenses, such as Texas A&M and Georgia, so he can do the same against a scary Ole Miss unit. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs will have a tough time slowing down Jaxon Dart and company. The Rebels should be able to bust out explosive plays all game against a Mississippi State defense that ranks 123rd in the country in points allowed per game (37.6) and 132nd in yards allowed per pass (9.2).

Oklahoma State +16.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Oklahoma State finally ditched Alan Bowman last week, and the move immediately paid dividends. The Cowboys put up a season-high 48 points and 508 yards of offense thanks to quarterback Maealiuaki Smith. Running back Ollie Gordon II is also hitting his stride with 277 rushing yards and four touchdowns over the past two games. This is a completely different offense with Smith under center, so Oklahoma State is now equipped to go score for score with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. 

RJ Harvey over 116.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Harvey has been one of the most consistent running backs in the country this season. The senior is averaging 19.3 carries and 132.5 rushing yards per game. He’s cleared this line in five straight games and eight of his 11 starts this year. Utah has shut down opposing running backs in recent weeks, but Cameron Skattebo, the best running back the Utes faced this season, gashed them for 158 yards and two scores. There’s no reason Harvey can’t do the same. 

Utah State vs. Colorado State over 58 points (-112 at DraftKings)
Utah State doesn’t know how to play a low-scoring game. The Aggies offense ranks 11th in the country in yards per game (448.9) and 35th in points per game (31.0), while the defense ranks 130th in the same categories. Utah State games have averaged 75.0 points over the last eight, and they went over this total seven times in that span. Colorado State runs its offense at a much slower pace, but this number is too low for how easily Utah State can speed up the tempo. 

Labar: Barkley and Henry, Facing Off on Sunday, are Thriving with New Teams

Grab your popcorn and prepare for the trash talk in your fantasy leagues between the teams that have Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry on their rosters. To kick off the first day of December, at 4:25pm in Baltimore two of the best running backs in the game go head-to-head (basically). To add a little fuel to the fire, both Henry and Barkley are playing into this much anticipated matchup. After Barkley put together arguably his best game of the season this past Sunday, Derrick Henry gave him a shoutout on X.

Henry spoke to it again later in his weekly press conference. When asked about the post, he made a joke saying Barkley “needs to slow his a** down.” But the rest of the questions were about Henry’s own solid performance in LA: 24 carries for 140 rushing yards.   

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Morant has Averaged 31.2 Points in Past 5 Games Against New Orleans

By Chris Farley

Ja Morant over 19.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Normally Ja Morant scores a healthy 23 ppg against the Pelicans (his average over the past five seasons). Lately, it's a matchup he's thrived in even more. In Memphis' past five games against New Orleans, Morant is averaging 31.2 ppg, far above his norm. And over their past five games, the Pelicans are the NBA's worst defense, so Morant and every Grizzlies player will have an A+ opportunity against a program that's been too in flux to form chemistry. Memphis has been keeping down Morant's minutes to conserve his health (27 mpg), but that's just giving us a humble number.

LA Clippers +6 (-108 at FanDuel)
We have plenty of reasons to support the Clippers right now, but this is more about the Timberwolves. After their last loss, Anthony Edwards called his teammates "soft," saying that they were being like "a bunch of little kids" and asserting that they're not a serious team. That's not what Minnesota backers want to hear before facing the Clippers, who are among the most improved programs over their past five games (2nd in defense and net rating). The T-Wolves own a middling 13th net rating this season, and right now they're leaking oil in all phases.

Clippers vs. T-Wolves under 215 points (-108 at DraftKings)
That we're getting a low total is not surprising considering the nature of both of these programs; two tough rosters that are built by discipline and sound defense. Right now there's not much that's disciplined about the Timberwolves, who rank as a mediocre 19th in offensive efficiency over their past five games. The Clippers rank as the second-best defense in the association during the same span. Besides an outlier against Boston, LAC is allowing just 96.6 ppg in their last six contests. Both outfits are also in the bottom-third of the NBA in tempo. It's unlikely that scoring will come easy.

Portland +6.5 (-105 at Bovada and BetOnline)
First and foremost: The Kings haven't been a good team. They severely missed Malik Monk, who returned on Wednesday to anchor a bench that ranked dead-last in offensive efficiency this season without him, and they've lost seven of their last 11 games. One recent win against Minnesota isn't exactly impressive, either, considering the Timberwolves' current state. Portland is not a good basketball team, but the market continues to grade them lower than they should. They're fighting hard in the early season and this qualifies as a good situation for them - they're 8-3 ATS after a loss and 5-3 as a home underdog.

L.A. Lakers +2 (-105 at Bovada)
We're not always keen on following random market signals, but this one is a bit startling. Sure, the OKC Thunder are in the middle of a four-game road trip, but it's not like they've looked out of form lately. They're 2nd in total defense and 3rd in net rating over their past three games. We have the Thunder as one of the NBA's best, unlike LAL, so the spread feels off. Still, OKC narrowly won a recent affair against Golden State and looked exhausted at the end. The Lakers, off a loss, are set up better at home, and the market is telling us OKC might not fully show up.

Lakers vs. Thunder under 231.5 points (-110 consensus)
Dealing with key injuries hasn't been easy, but the Thunder's defensive prowess remains unchanged. In their past seven games they're a top-3 defense, full-season no program has a higher defensive efficiency rating, and even their bench is top-5 through one month of action. Their tempo is normally slow (26th), and they match up very well against the Lakers, who love to run a fastbreak (OKC is 3rd in fastbreak points allowed/game) and rely on their big-men down low (OKC is 1st in opponent paint-points/game). This is a nice hedge against a Lakers bet, but either way we like OKC's resistance to limit scoring in this high-profile matchup.

Raiders vs. Chiefs: KC Should Finally Get the Easy Game It has Been Wanting

The Chiefs win by an average of 6.1 points, which ranks 27th in the NFL. The good news for Kansas City is that they are also 8-0 in close games. Patrick Mahomes and Co. haven’t been dominant, but they keep finding ways to win (nearly) every time.

Raiders (2-9, 1-5 Away) vs. Chiefs (10-1, 5-0 Home)
Friday, 3pm on Prime

Matchup Insights from NFL Next Gen Stats

• Patrick Mahomes has recorded +158.5 EPA against the Raiders over his career, more than any other quarterback against any team over that period of time (since 2018). Mahomes recorded a season-high +11.7 EPA against the Raiders in Week 8.

• The Raiders recorded a season-low 1.6 yards per carry and -47 rushing yards over expected against the Chiefs in Week 8. This was 1 of 3 games this season the Raiders failed to record an explosive run (10+ yards).

• Brock Bowers leads all tight ends with 744 yards and 400 yards after the catch, while recording +103 receiving yards over expected (3rd) and +104 yards after the catch over expected (2nd-most) among tight ends this season.

• Kareem Hunt has recorded 155 carries since joining the Chiefs in Week 4, the 3rd-most carries since that time, behind Saquon Barkley. Hunt has generated a league-low -74 rushing yards over expected since Week 4.

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Raiders

  • RB Alexander Mattison: 23.6 rush yards, 15.5 receiving yards

  • WR Jakobi Meyers: 4.8 receptions, 53.8 receiving yards

  • TE Brock Bowers: 4.8 receptions, 53.2 receiving yards

• Chiefs

  • QB Patrick Mahomes: 270.8 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD

  • RB Kareem Hunt: 27.1 rush yards, 8.5 receiving yards

  • TE Travis Kelce: 6.7 receptions, 70.6 receiving yards

In the News 

• What exactly is the plan for Daniel Jones in Minnesota: “The answer lies in the complicated quarterback matrix the Vikings find themselves in, one that seemed destined to remain dormant until the offseason but will now take a prominent place in public discussion around the team. Starter Sam Darnold joined Minnesota on a one-year contract during the offseason and has surpassed all expectations in leading the Vikings to a 9-2 record, having already topped his career high in touchdown passes (20), and he could command a hefty free agent contract. Darnold is 27 and perhaps hitting the prime of his career, and re-signing him would make sense in the abstract. But rookie J.J. McCarthy, the No. 10 pick of the 2024 draft, is the team's quarterback of the future.” [ESPN]

• Another top tennis player tests positive for banned substance: “Iga Swiatek is the second high-profile tennis player to test positive for a banned substance this year, joining Jannik Sinner. While Sinner, currently the No. 1 ranked man, was fully cleared, Swiatek, who slid from No. 1 to No. 2 last month, accepted a one-month suspension that was announced Thursday. … ‘These are not cases of intentional doping. These are cases — in Sinner’s case ... no fault or negligence. In (Swiatek’s) case, very low end, no significant fault or negligence,’ ITIA CEO Karen Moorhouse said in a video call with reporters. ‘So I don’t think this is a cause for concern for tennis fans and the like.’” [Associated Press]

• Texas vs. Texas A&M is back (and huge for the CFP): “Thirteen years ago, future Hall of Fame kicker Justin Tucker nailed a 40-yard field goal that sent Texas to an emotional 27-25 victory over Texas A&M. The next year, the Aggies joined the SEC and the game went dark. Since that moment, the rivalry has been dormant, but never quiet. There's been the battle over recruits, featuring memorable battles for Kyler Murray, Malik Jefferson, Anthony Hill Jr. and countless others. … But after Texas decided to join the SEC (news that was leaked first to a Texas A&M beat writer, by the way), everything changed. The game is back.” [CBS Sports]

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12pm: If you’ve been following the CFP debate but haven’t seen No. 11 Boise State yet, now’s your chance — though Oregon State isn’t the best competition — on FOX

• 3pm: Raiders vs. Chiefs for Black Friday football on Prime

• 7:30pm: Penguins vs. Bruins to catch some hockey on TNT (followed by Avalanche vs. Stars at 10pm)

• 11pm: Thunder vs. Lakers on ESPN

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