A Look at the Bucs and Falcons Thursday Night Matchup + more

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Jared Goff’s perfect night

• NFL: Thursday Night Football opportunities

• MLB: 76% of the money on the spread is with the Astros today

• College Football: UNLV backup QB went 13-16 for 182 yards and 3 TDs in first start

• WNBA: Napheesa Collier averages 20.6 ppg on the road

• Overtime: A (probably) way too early look at NFL coaching hot seat rankings

Our guide to all of the Week 5 games is now on our website, so take a look. Before we get to today’s newsletter, here are a few insights from NFL Next Gen Stats to help you set your fantasy lineups:

• Devon Achane generated +279 rushing yards over expected last season, the 2nd-most of any player behind only Christian McCaffery (+349). Achane has generated a league-low -88 rushing yards over expected through four weeks this season.

• The Seahawks defense has allowed a 34.5% completion percentage and 8.2 yards per attempt on downfield pass attempts (10+ air yards) this season, the 4th-lowest and 4th-fewest in the league. Opposing passers have recorded a -15.4% completion percentage over expected against the Seahawks on such passes this season, the 2nd-lowest mark in the league.

• Bucky Irving played a career-high 40.5% of offensive snaps in Week 4 (White season-low 59.5%) against the Eagles. Irving has generated +11 rushing yards over expected on 35 carries this season (203 yards, TD), while White has recorded -36 RYOE on 41 carries (115 yards). White has generated -176 RYOE since entering the NFL in 2022, the fewest in the league.

• The Packers have totaled 19 designed runs of 10 yards or more, the 2nd-most in the NFL. Josh Jacobs has attempted 62.0% of his rushes between the tackle box, where he has averaged 4.0 yards after contact on such carries (3rd-most, minimum 25 inside rushes).

• Jared Goff completed every pass he threw in the Lions' 42-29 win over the Seahawks, finishing 18-for-18 (+21.9% CPOE). The odds of Goff completing all 18 passes based on the completion probability of each attempt? 1 in 145 (0.69%).

  

In the newsletter, Chris is covering the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Falcons along with WNBA playoff action, I break down today’s MLB playoff slate, and Jack is tracking Thursday and Friday college football.

- Abe Rakov