13 NBA Bets Analyzed + Insights on CFB Conference Championship Games

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NBA winning streaks

• NBA: Lakers are 1-5 against the spread as road underdogs

• College Football: Conference championship game pressure + cold weather should make for low scores

• Column: An early look at the NBA Cup quarterfinals

• More NBA: Kings and Spurs both averaging over 114.5 points in past 5

• NFL: Week 14 Projected Player Stats, Matchup Insights and Team Rankings

• Overtime: Were Lonzo Ball’s dad’s shoes a problem?

Last night the Warriors beat the Rockets for the 15th straight time — even with Steph Curry and Draymond Green both out with injuries. Houston hasn’t beaten Golden State since 2020, but that’s not even the longest current head-to-head drought in the NBA. The Pistons have lost 16 in a row to the Knicks dating back to November 2019.

The longest winning streak one NBA team has ever had against another is 27 games: The Lakers beat the Kings every time from March 1983 through January 1988.

In today’s newsletter, Craig and Chris are covering the NBA slate and Jack is tracking tonight’s college football conference championship games. In her column, Abby takes an early look at next week’s NBA Cup quarterfinal action.

We have the NFL covered too: Our Sportmoney x PFF weekly rundown and Week 14 projected player stats, matchup insights and team rankings for every game are both on our website.

— Abe Rakov

Trae Young Adding 12.4 Assists per Game Over Past 11

By Craig Williams

Orlando moneyline (-160 at BetMGM)
Philadelphia continues to reel with a 3-7 mark over their past 10 contests. Their five victories on the season have come against the Hornets (2x), Nets, Pacers, and Pistons, so we’re not talking about impressive company. Joel Embiid remains out, and Paul George has been inconsistent — when he plays. The 76ers are just in rough shape, putting the Magic in good position to claim a road victory. We’re looking at the moneyline in this spot because Orlando’s defensive efficiency wanes on the road, where they’re 7-8 compared to 9-0 at the Kia Center. The 76ers, however, are 2-8 with their own defensive struggles at home.

Bucks +7.5 (-105 at Fanatics)
The Bucks are finding their stride, and they enter with an 8-2 mark straight-up over their past 10. The Celtics continue to roll, though. We’re venturing into the sports psychology angle for this play as well. A team like the Bucks will view the Celtics as a measuring stick, or at least a test they want to ace, especially as they’re starting to hit their stride. For this reason, we project them to pose a legitimate challenge to the defending champs and finish with a cover, even if they lose outright. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points (-117 at Caesars)
Naturally, Antetokounmpo is fueling the Bucks’ current run with MVP-level play — he’s currently +550 at Caesars. He’s played nine games over the Bucks’ past 10, and he’s averaging 34.7 points on 61.6% shooting over that span. He’s also cleared this number in six of those contests. In two games against the Celtics, Antetokounmpo stayed under (30 points, 2 of 6 from the free throw line) and went over (43 points). We anticipate another high-scoring performance as he leads the Bucks in what looks like it should be a competitive contest.

Hawks -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Hawks are quietly one of the hotter teams in the league, winning five in a row straight-up and going 4-1 against the spread over that span. They’re coming off of a 15-point road victory against the Bucks, who are on a roll of their own. The Lakers, meanwhile, are in a rut, going 4-6 over their past 10 and dropping two straight. They’ve been particularly bad offensively, especially over their past three with a 96.3 efficiency rating. They also enter with a 1-5 mark against the spread as road underdogs and they’re 3-9 against the number on the road overall.

Trae Young over 14.5 assists + rebounds (-115 at BetMGM)
Young has been an assist machine all season, and especially of late. He’s averaging 12.4 dimes per game over his past 11 contests, including seven double-digit performances and four instances of going over this number with assists alone. We know Young won’t be confused for a prolific rebounder, but his 3.5 boards over the same span gives him enough glass-work to push his assists-plus-rebounds total to the over. He’s corralled as many as eight rebounds over this span, and with the Lakers’ recent shooting woes (45.9% effective field goal percentage over past three), there should be a few more errant shots that Young can collect. 

Bulls +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
It’s not that we trust the Bulls, who are 3-7 at the United Center, but we really lack trust in the Pacers, who are 2-11 straight-up on the road. They’re 1-5 against the spread as the road favorite and 3-10 against the spread on the road overall. The Pacers also enter play on a four-game skid and without a cover in six games. We’ll stop short of calling the Bulls “hot,” but they have won two straight and covered four of five.

Bulls over 122.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Bulls and Pacers rank first and eighth, respectively, in pace, so it’s reasonable to expect a track meet tonight. The Bulls are 3-2 to the over in the second leg of a back-to-back, so we’re not shying away from the idea of them maintaining their uptempo play. In addition to a game that will theoretically produce a lot of possessions for each side, the Pacers enter with poor defensive numbers, both in points allowed and defensive efficiency. They also allow a slightly higher scoring average on the road. All of these factors combine to give us confidence that the Bulls will go over this number, something they’ve done in six of seven.

CFP Spot is on the Line in UNLV’s Rematch with Boise State

By Jack Dougherty

UNLV +4 (-110 at DraftKings)
Boise State won the first matchup against UNLV, 29-24, but there’s a reason this spread is the same as it was in October even with home-field advantage flipped. UNLV outgained Boise State on a yards-per-play basis, 6.3-5.4. The Rebels rushed for 188 yards on 5.2 yards per carry and held Ashton Jeanty to just 3.9 yards per tote. Six sacks, an interception that set up the Broncos at the 7-yard line and Boise State going 4-for-4 on fourth downs made the difference in the game. There’s no discernible difference between these two teams, so this spread shouldn’t be above +3. 

Ashton Jeanty under 175.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bet365)
Raise your hand if you want to bet against the best running back in the country in his final chance to make a statement to the Heisman voters! In all seriousness, this isn’t the same Jeanty we watched in the first few games of the season. The Heisman contender has been nursing multiple minor injuries for weeks, and he just hasn’t been as explosive down the stretch. After averaging a ridiculous 10.9 yards per carry over his first five games, Jeany averaged just 5.79 yards per carry over the past seven weeks of the season. UNLV will sell out to stop the best player on the field. 

Army vs. Tulane first half under 22.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Buckle up for a freezing-cold battle in the AAC Championship. The forecast in West Point, NY calls for temperatures in the mid-20s and strong winds with gusts up to 20 miles per hour. A large majority of Tulane’s roster hails from warm southern states, so those hard hits in the ice-cold air aren’t going to feel too good early in this game. The Green Wave should take some time to adjust to the weather and figure out the best way to move the ball in the cold and wind, while Army will be content with running the ball for three yards a pop and bleeding the clock. 

Tre Stewart over 109.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Jacksonville State knows it can run the ball against Western Kentucky. The Gamecocks rushed 43 times for 229 yards (5.3 yards per carry) against the Hilltoppers just last week, so there’s no reason to switch up the game plan in the rematch. Stewart saw only 20 carries in that matchup, his lowest mark since the fourth game of the season against Southern Mississippi. He should be busier in a championship game with everything on the line. Stewart has gone over this line in six of his last eight games. 

Tennessee to win the national championship (+3000 at FanDuel)
This is a mis-price, plain and simple. Can someone explain why Tennessee is 30/1 to win the national title while Alabama is 15/1? Not only did Tennessee beat Alabama in the regular season, but the Crimson Tide aren’t even guaranteed a College Football Playoff spot. If SMU loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship, the committee will have to decide between an 11-1 Mustangs team that lost its extra game and a Crimson Tide team that went 9-3 in the regular season with losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. SMU deserves that spot. We know Tennessee is in, and it has one of the most ferocious, game-wrecking defensive fronts in the country.

CFB Playoff top 4 exacta: 1st Penn State, 2nd Georgia, 3rd SMU, 4th Iowa State (+3100 at FanDuel)
Let’s have some fun before championship week begins. There’s a tab on FanDuel to predict the exact top four seeds in the College Football Playoff based on this weekend’s results, and we’re looking at this long-shot option. All we’d need is Penn State to beat Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, Georgia to beat Texas in the SEC Championship, SMU to beat Clemson in the ACC Championship and Iowa State to beat Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship. The parlay of those four moneylines is only +1695, so we’re getting nearly double the odds with this prop. As long as the committee doesn’t give Boise State or UNLV a top-four seed in this scenario, the order should be pretty set in stone.

Labar: Breaking Down Next Week’s NBA Cup Quarterfinals

We’re in the midst of the sequel to the NBA’s in-season tournament, except this version is called the “Emirates NBA Cup” … it was only a matter of time before we stamped a title sponsor on that one of course. 

As somebody who worked and traveled with a hockey team for an 82-game season, I’ll be the first to attest that at a certain point in the year it can feel like Groundhog Day for the staff, players and fans. So incorporating this in-season tournament is something that I thought was a really great idea by the NBA. It starts far enough into the season that teams have created an identity, but we’re not quite close enough to the halfway point to start talking about postseason contenders. 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Malik Monk Averaging 21.5 Points in 6 Games Since Returning from Injury

By Chris Farley

Spurs +4.5 (-105 at Bovada)
The Kings simply don't deserve road chalk like this. Sacramento has played a little better lately (9th on offense, 19th on defense over their past 5 games), but they haven't performed at a high level consistently all season. The Spurs were the victors against the Kings five nights ago in a close battle where they shot extremely well (51% from the floor, 50% from beyond the arc). While we can't count on that happening the same way again, Sacramento's defense is a problem and Victor Wembanyama, who dominated the Kings in both matchups (34 points twice this against SAC this season), is set to return after resting last night.

Malik Monk 17+ points (-105 at DraftKings)
Few players are as important to their team as Malik Monk is to the Sacramento Kings. After a two week absence in mid-November, the explosive shooting guard is averaging 21.5 points per game, with only one contest that failed to reach 17 or more points. He performed well against San Antonio five nights ago, scoring 19 points on 5-10 shooting from distance, but he shot just 14 times in 37 minutes. Sacramento's defense did not look capable of stopping Wembanyama and his colleagues in either contest against the Spurs this year, so we project another above-average game from Monk. 

Kings vs. Spurs over 227 points (-110 at Bovada and FanDuel)
Did we mention that we like both offenses to thrive in this matchup tonight? Thought so. The Kings' offense is finally hitting some of its stride, ranking 9th in offensive efficiency and averaging a healthy 115 points per game in their past five contests. The Spurs aren't far behind (114.6 points per game in the same span). Although Sacramento is typically a great defense against big men (2nd in the NBA in opponent paint points per game), Wembanyama is too rangy and versatile for Domantas Sabonis, who looks like an 8th grader next to the French phenom. 

Jazz vs. Trailblazers over 226 points (-110 at FanDuel)
FanDuel is presenting us with a number and price well below other sportsbooks. Two lowly outfits in the Jazz and Blazers meet for the first time this season, and both teams are probably excited to face an opponent they can finally beat. While neither program is a juggernaut offensively (Utah is 23rd, Portland is 14th in offensive efficiency over their past five games), defense is where they truly struggle, ranked 29th (Utah) and 30th (Portland) over their past five. The healthier offense is Portland, which runs at a much faster tempo at home (7th overall), which we like to catalyze more scoring.

Timberwolves -1 (-105 at Bovada)
Just when you think the Warriors might be going through hard times, they pull off a surprising victory last night. Golden State was without Steph Curry and Draymond Green on Thursday, but it mattered not. More first-class defense and great performances by Andrew Wiggins (23 points) and Jonathan Kuminga (33 points) sparked a seminal win. Tonight is likely to be a different story. Curry and Green could both return, but the rest of their roster will be exhausted after a physical battle against Houston, and Minnesota has quietly found a rhythm lately (three straight wins, 1st in defense over their past five).

Warriors team total under 109.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
Minnesota's defense has been ferocious over their past three contests, permitting just 252 points (84 points per game). Over their past five contests, no team has been better in defensive efficiency, and even more impressively, they're only permitting a 30.4% three-point percentage during the same span. Golden State is at least partially successful before of their prowess from beyond the arc (37% this season, 13th), but tired legs off a back-to-back is not a recipe for success when clashing with a motivated T-Wolves squad that's hell-bent on turning their season around.

Bills vs. Rams: Buffalo Brings League’s Second-Best Offense to LA

The Bills have won seven in a row and are the only team in the NFL to have already clinched their division. The Rams have played themselves back into playoff contention in the very crowded NFC West by winning five of their past seven games.

Bills (10-2, 4-2 Away) vs. Rams (6-6, 3-3 Home)
Sunday, 4:25pm on FOX

Key player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats:

• Bills

  • QB Josh Allen: 262.3 pass yards, 1.8 pass TD

  • RB James Cook: 68.3 rush yards, 15.5 receiving yards

  • WR Khalil Shakir: 5.5 receptions, 61.7 receiving yards

• Rams

  • QB Matthew Stafford: 229.6 pass yards, 1.6 pass TD

  • RB Kyren Williams: 69.3 rush yards, 17.3 receiving yards

  • WR Puka Nacua: 5.6 receptions, 75.3 receiving yards

You can find our full breakdown of every game in Week 14 in the NFL at sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• Lonzo Ball thinks his dad’s shoe brand could have contributed to his injury woes.

• There’s major drama to finish out the F1 season — ”Threats, lies and backstabbing: How the Verstappen and Russell feud played out.”

• Is Bill Belichick to UNC a real possibility or are both sides looking for attention?

• The Blackhawks, owner of the NHL’s worst record, fired their head coach.

• The NBA is returning to China in 2025 with two Nets vs. Suns preseason games next October.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:30pm: Surging Bucks vs. defending champion Celtics on ESPN

• 8pm: No. 20 UNLV vs. No. 10 Boise State for the Mountain West Championship (and CFP bye with a Boise State win) on FOX

• 10pm: Timberwolves at Warriors for the second game of ESPN’s Friday night NBA doubleheader

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